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Featured Tesla Stock falls on production delays.

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by mikefocke, Jan 3, 2017.

  1. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    Tesla Deliveries Miss Forecasts Again on Production Delays - Bloomberg

    "The Palo Alto, California-based maker of electric cars and energy-storage products delivered about 22,200 vehicles in the final three months of last year, according to a statement Tuesday. The total trailed the automaker’s projection for 25,000 units and brought its full-year tally to 76,230 vehicles, below its forecast for at least 80,000 units."

    Year over year is still up 50%.
     
  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    same old, same old. brokers are making a fortune on yoyo stories.
     
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  3. JimN

    JimN Let the games begin!

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    Tesla cut its forecasts at least twice and missed on the bottom end. Stock was up $3.30 in normal trading and down $4.49 after hours. It can move $5 on no news any day. Nothing to see here. I'm waiting for the quarterly earnings call and the SEC filings.
     
  4. mrbigh

    mrbigh Prius Absolutum Dominium

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  5. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    2014 31,665 missing 35,000 cars
    2015 50,557 just inside lower end of guidance
    2016 76,230 bellow lower guidance of 80,000

    We see a pattern here. A miss in 2014 of 9.5%, a miss in 2016 of 4.7%. Growth for the 2 year period of 55%a year. I guess we could say forecasts are getting better and damn growth is barely over 50% a year now as tesla has grown into a big company.

    Boeing, Tesla, and GM fear trump will do a trade war with china and slow growth, but Tesla's growth really will be in 2018 after the model 3 hits big production. A less than 5% miss makes little difference, valuation and BEV volume depends not on 2016 - the past, but on the model 3 and how it will sell in the future.
     
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  6. mrbigh

    mrbigh Prius Absolutum Dominium

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    I would like to see a name of another large American company with a 50% yearly grow in manufacturing products with a tag price of $80K and above......
     
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  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    there are still amazon haters out there.:rolleyes:
     
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  8. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    amazon is not a manufacturing company. Its growth is about 23% less than half of teslas.

    I do not think amazon will ever make money on retail. They do make a lot of money on prime and cloud. Amazon and tesla have both left their periods for long term investors and now they are trader type stocks. Most of the hate on tesla are from

    A) People that hate the idea of green
    B) Those that have been preaching that BEVs are impossible and no one will buy them
    C) Those who shorted the stock and are taking up points from A and B.
     
  9. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    however they make money, they have proven the stock price naysayers wrong.
     
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  10. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    I'm wondering if we are seeing a short squeeze right now. Up over $7/share right now.

    The miss was minor, and if you include the cars in that are in transit to owners they made it. But the news doesn't seem that good, unless a big miss had been priced into it.
     
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  11. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Demand for the model S and X were higher than expected. The miss was because of manufacturing not sales, which is bullish long term. Rumors of a miss were there, the fact that it was a manufacturing problem that has been solved is bullish for future deliveries. Big risks are when the model 3 is out, which is priced to be spring 2018 in volume. If model 3 hits in november 2017 the stock will boom. December 2018 will cause it to tank.
     
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  12. PRIMEkhan

    PRIMEkhan New Member

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    Prius Prime with 25 mile range, I have not visited a gas station since I bought it. Tesla stock should keep doing well as they are getting into solar home business.
     
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  13. Eastside

    Eastside Member

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    The solar home business thrives/relies on homeowner tax credits, and financing for the installations.
    How are tax credits for 2017 looking at the Federal and state level ?

    Recall Suntech Power (STP) from $80 a share to $ 0.04 now.
    Hoku (HOKU) was building a solar cell plant in Idaho. Like Tesla, next to a large supply of raw materials. From $14 a share to 1/10,000 of a penny.

    The game changes if there is an increase in solar cell efficiency, say up to 35%, or a breakthrough above that.
     
  14. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    this is what truly flabbergasts me - the 'Enhanced Autopilot' roll-out began months ago, and it's STILL not up and running at ALL for cars so equipped, and the Model X windshield ghost imaging issue still has no fix ... for all the months since the X began roll-out. Yet the buyers keep coming.
    Unbelievable.
    OH NOOOO !!
    drama.jpg

    I'm still wondering why the whole market hasn't caved - what's the national debt up to? 18trill ? ... that is one overstretched giant rubber band.
    EDIT
    oops, sorry ... I under-guessed
    U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time
    .
     
    #14 hill, Jan 15, 2017
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2017
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  15. JimN

    JimN Let the games begin!

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    Just my opinion: Other markets are in worse shape so the USA attracts foreign capital. More demand equals higher prices. I was expecting the rest of the stock market to catch down to the energy sector by now but that hasn't happened.

    I also misread TSLA. The correction wasn't as deep or as long as I expected. It's a good time for the next secondary.

    I believe Tesla can build the cars faster than they can sell them as inventory is increasing.
     
  16. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    As for autopilot, Tesla is being extremely cautious. If this is software that is going to drive for me, I want them to do it right.

    As for the windshield, it is rather minor. It doesn't affect everyone, and in cases where the issue is apparent, it is more or less noticeable.
    Frankly, I wasn't aware the issue had not been resolved yet as we simply haven't been bothered to check on it.
    At our 1 year service we will have them take a look.
     
  17. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    stock price has nothing to do with the health of a company.
     
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  18. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    I agree, and disagree(y)(n)

    The financial health of a company is reflected by the stock price trends, or more accurately the price/earnings ratio.
    Short term trends don't mean anything by themselves, although they may indicate an underlying issue.
    Long term trends are a better indicator, but still not absolute.

    Also, trends for young companies are different than trends for large, more mature companies.
    And trends for some types of stocks are different for trends seen in other types (think cyclical vs start up companies).

    Stock prices are more accurately an indication of investor confidence in a companies plans and ability to execute those plans.
     
  19. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    going forward. You pay more for a stock to express your confidence that the company will increase earnings and thus pay dividends (and/or stock appreciation) in the planned holding period.

    Tesla is impressive looking backward. How well they will do over the next five years as more and more competitors enter what has been their market will be interesting to watch. They have first mover advantage. Certainly they have the media exposure money can't buy which can be both good or bad. And, with the Gigafactory, they may or may not have the right technology at the right price. What happens when an EV is just a commodity sold by every dealer on the block and the dealer down the street has 10 sizes and shapes? Can Tesla still command higher prices or is it doomed to compete on volume in a cyclical industry? What happens when the economy turns (as eventually it must)? How will the away-from-home charging infrastructure evolve?
     
  20. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    What happens? That is when Tesla has achieved its goal(n):D
    Seriously though, those are good questions.
    Tesla wouldn't be a company today if GM or Toyota, or any of the other established automakers had jumped into the market for EVs as Tesla had.
    Now though, Tesla has brand recognition, a very efficient production line (although not as large), and the first few stages of an incredibly efficient battery plant.
    I also don't see other manufacturers pushing EVs hard enough to hurt Tesla.
    GM could wipe the floor with Tesla by kicking out the Bolt in high quanity before the Model 3 arrives in about a year.
    As is, I won't see a Bolt at MN dealerships until September.

    Tesla won't ever be competing for the highest volume car manufacturer.
    But they will do what they can to show the GMs out there that EVs have a hell of a lot going for them.