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Electrical energy past and future

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, May 10, 2017.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    This is why New England looks to be ideal for wind. As @bisco points out, not in my back yard might prevent urban areas from benefiting but I can see rural areas where such problems might be manageable such as Pittsfield. The irony is New England in the early 1800s had abundant, low head, water power that led to their industrialization.
    I understand the problem of trying to use the grid as the ultimate battery. To me, it looks like Hawaii is the place for 'PowerWall' technology that might even bootstrap with EVs and plug-in. The one advantage is Hawaii could test each approach by doing island-by-island technology demonstrators. I would observe that with great altitude changes, pumped power makes a nice, utility grade battery.

    Bob Wilson
     
  2. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    This focus on improving electricity is great. Wish I had more to contribute. My view of countries supplying >680 watts per capita (twice global average) is they have a reasonable path towards improvement. Including reducing the CO2 aspect.

    Maybe much more challenging in below-average countries. As in, it seems to be a completely different set of problems. Working on a map to post, and it is very sad. So, stockpile whatever things make you happy, we will soon enter the pit of despair.
     
  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    nah, it's a lie, but we all need some kine of escape now and then. i have my eye on my wife's oxycodone.;)
     
  6. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I can't answer without charts ;-)
    http://www.nrel.gov/gis/images/80m_wind/awstwspd80onoffbigC3-3dpi600.jpg

    Boston would likely need to get good on shore wind from maine or new york. That means upgraded transmission lines, and ... would Maine. New Hampshire, Vermont, or New York be the end users of the wind or Boston.

    Those transmission lines are part of the eastern grid, which is the most antiquated grid in the US/Canada, with the most expensive to build wind in many regions because they require new transmission lines and available wind is not as good as the western or texas grid. Still there is lots of wind in the whole interconnect, and here is a summary on how to get to 25% wind, 5% solar. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/64472-ES.pdf

    Seriously for conneticut and massachusets, the best way to lower energy prices is to build more natural gas pipelines, and upgrade the grid to lower congestion for the changed population. There also would likely need to be major regulatory changes to pass the savings onto consumers. The country as a whole can lower ghg by building renewables in other places. The least expensive way to reduce ghg in those states is efficiency on the grid and in buildings ;-)
     
    #46 austingreen, May 21, 2017
    Last edited: May 21, 2017
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  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    The report identifies generator/load sharing across the grid because there are few utility grade, battery systems. I'm somewhat OK although the promise of bi-directional, plug-in energy transfer remains unfulfilled. But another question is why does @bisco and his fellow New Englanders pay the highest rate in the lower 48?

    It looks like "Table 24. Installed Capacity of NYISO in 2010 and Each ERGIS Scenario" and "Table 25. Installed Capacity of ISO-NE in 2010 and Each ERGIS Scenario":
    Source NYISO ISO-NE
    1 Wind 0 0
    2 PV 0 0
    3 Nuclear 5 5
    4 Coal 3 4
    5 Gas CC 9 14
    6 CT/Gas Boiler 13 3
    7 Hydro 5 2
    8 Other 5 8

    • Gas CC - direct gas turbine operation
    • CT/Gas Boiler - conventional turbine and gas boiler
    It looks like the ratio of "Gas CC" and "CT/Gas Boiler" that may be why the New England region has such high electrical rates.

    I have not finished the report which gives the impression is the absence of utility-grade energy storage that may be what is the challenge. This begs an important question about how plug-in hybrids with bi-directional energy flow might be the way to go.

    Bob Wilson
     
  8. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i would think mergers and acquisitions have something to do with the rates around here.
     
  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    If this was the usual venture capital acquisition, borrowing based on the projected purchase assets, it would make sense. In which case, rigorous enforcement of utility monopoly would follow along with confiscatory interest payments. Are there reports showing that to be the case?

    Bob Wilson
     
    #49 bwilson4web, May 22, 2017
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  10. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i haven't found anything, but when you look at the record of the recently retired ceo, it sure looks like it. maybe it's my conspiratorial mindset. i just don't like it when small companies get gobbled up, it's never good for the consumer. and i don't trust the pols to do the right thing.
    meanwhile, ever source has proposed another 10% distribution rate hike for 2018.
     
  11. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Certainly part of the problem is poor regulation, and part of the problem is incompetence. There is nothing compared to the policies that caused the California blackouts, but it is there.

    Wholesale electric prices reach new low in New England, but retail prices remain high - The Boston Globe

    The pipeline mentioned should be built, but ... my guess is costs for construction will be passed onto utility customers, while savings for removing the bottle neck, will show up in the profit statements of the utilities, instead of lower rates for the consumers. I may just be being cynical here.

    Say you were a non utility, building something that would lower your costs with a solid IRR you would just do it. If there was competition, you would pay for the cost saving thing, then pass part of the savings to customers, while using some of the money to pay back debt and some to increase future profits. With monopolists and poor regulation, often you don't build that cost saving thing, or you charge up front to pay for it, and keep most of the savings as profit, because really you can. This has led to under investment in infrastructure, and high rates even as the infrastructure is finally being built.

    In the worst example, in california, power plants were simply under built, because if they had built them, they would not be able to keep as much profit. When there was a drought, there was not spare capacity in state to make up for the loss of hydro. Utilities then scalped the consumers, for out of state power, and when the state wouldn't pay, well, they got black outs, and then paid.
     
  12. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Was that the Enron/deregulation crisis in 2000 California?

    I am still more interested in current New England rates, highest in the 48. I am running chores but remember one map showing New England as an electricity importer. Supply and demand would justify higher prices.

    Bob Wilson
     
  13. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    You mean the half-deregulation? I.e. the wholesale side was deregulated, but the retail side was not. That help set up Enron's squeeze play.

    And many Columbia River Basin fish egg nests were destroyed to prevent a couple days of far away California rolling blackouts, while the nearby customers were paying higher retail prices to encourage reduced demand. Local industrial customers were seeing very high spikes in the energy spot market.
     
    #53 fuzzy1, May 22, 2017
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  14. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Bob regulators in New England did not learn enough from the partial deregulation debacle in California, that is why it is still pertinent.

    For your reading pleasure -
    http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/media/state-regs/pdf/Massachusetts.pdf
    FACTORS BEHIND CONNECTICUT'S HIGH ELECTRIC RATES

    A) Charges are decoupled from costs. These states decided that if the energy providers could get people to use less energy, then the provider could charge more to make up for lower volume. This may help with ghg, but definitely provides incentives to under build generation capacity.

    B) Deregulation was really bad regulations, where the utilities were forced to sell off generation capacity (other than new hampshire) and make generation a market, but a market where, you guessed it producers under built so they could charge more for the power. This left the grid and generation in adequate for the population growth.

    C) GHG regulation put incentives to switch to natural gas, not a bad thing, but this was not coordinated with increasing natural gas capacity to the region. This causes natural gas price spikes when its being used for both heating and electricity because there aren't enough pipelines. This problem looks like it is finally being solved, but it will take many more years.

    D) The region because of long term high prices has grown more efficient, not a bad thing, but this lowers political pressure to properly regulate the market to actually build enough infrastructure.

    Remember even in a competitive generation market, most power prices are really highly influenced by regulators. New England doesn't incentize building enough infrastruture, and concentrates on reducing ghg instead. If price is not in the equation, those producers will move to maximize profit, and will keep bottle necks to justify their high prices.
     
  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Excellent:
    The Massachusetts graph of energy sources was especially useful although it appears to date from 2010. Here is the most recent data I could find from EIA: State Energy Profile Data

    Renewable energy

    Until recently, all utility-scale renewable power generation in Massachusetts came from hydroelectric and biomass facilities.82 In 2008, only about one-twentieth of the electricity generated in the state came from renewable resources. By 2015, more than one-tenth of the state's power was generated with renewable energy, including distributed generation, and more than two-fifths of that was provided by wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) power.83,84 Most new renewable generating resources planned in New England are wind-powered, and Massachusetts has set a goal of 2,000 megawatts of wind capacity by 2020. About 5% of that capacity was in place by early 2016.85,86 Most of the onshore commercial wind development in Massachusetts has been along the coast, but the largest projects are near the state's northwestern border.87 Ridge crests in the Berkshire Mountains in western Massachusetts also have good wind potential.88 However, offshore regions have the state's highest wind resource potential. In 2009, Massachusetts issued its first comprehensive Ocean Management Plan for state waters, identifying areas appropriate for offshore wind development.89 In 2010, the first commercial offshore renewable energy lease in the United States was granted to a project in the federal waters off Massachusetts' Cape Cod.90 Although the state's wind resources are excellent around Cape Cod and the islands of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket, there has been opposition to building facilities within sight of land.91 The U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and the state have worked together to open more offshore areas to wind development.92 Massachusetts policies also promote solar energy. As of 2016, there were solar installations in 350 of the state's 351 cities and towns.93,94 In 2015, Massachusetts ranked sixth in the nation in combined utility-scale and distributed solar PV electricity generation.95

    Massachusetts adopted a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) in 2002. As amended in 2008, the RPS requires companies selling retail electricity in Massachusetts to acquire renewably sourced power in 1% increments from 2008 forward. There is no ceiling to the requirement, but renewable generation must account for at least 15% of total electricity sold in 2020. A portion of the renewable energy must be from in-state interconnected solar facilities. The state's RPS specified at least 400 megawatts of solar capacity by 2020, but that target has since been increased to 1,600 megawatts from solar by 2020.96,97 More than two-thirds of that capacity requirement was installed by early 2016, and Massachusetts ranked sixth in the nation in installed solar PV generating capacity in 2015. State policies supporting solar power include net metering for customer-sited installations. 98,99

    In 2009, Massachusetts created an Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard, requiring that 5% of electric load in 2020 be met with high-efficiency customer-sited systems, such as industrial cogeneration.100 The state is part of the ISO-NE regional electricity market. ISO-NE has promoted demand response programs to maintain the reliability of the electricity grid. As a result, industrial and commercial consumers in Massachusetts have committed to making substantial power reductions during demand peaks and emergencies.101 Massachusetts is also part of the northeastern Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a market-based cooperative effort to limit carbon emissions.102With its declining use of coal and petroleum for electricity generation, the state is within its RGGI goals.103

    On interesting aspect of the 2010 data was ~3% hydro. This suggests a natural 'pumped storage' system that would use excess wind power to pump water over the hydro power dams.

    I also like the "high-efficiency customer-sited systems, such as industrial cogeneration" because it dove tails with my desire for bi-directional energy generation to run the home. Now that I'm retired, another task to levy on the Prius Prime and/or BMW i3-REx. <GRINS>

    Bob Wilson
     
    #55 bwilson4web, May 23, 2017
    Last edited: May 23, 2017
  16. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  17. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    The 'without' population has shrunk from 1.5 Billion a quarter century ago, to under 1.1B now. 'With' has increased from under 4B to over 6B.

    Did you mentally invert the legend?
     
  18. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    By golly, so I did.
     
  19. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Following your suggestion, I did too. It took a couple minutes and searches for supporting information to notice the error.
     
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  20. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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