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Atlantic hurricane season

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jun 5, 2016.

  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    2005 Atlantic H season had about $160 billion damages, mostly from Katrina. 2012 had about $80 billion damages, mostly from Sandy.

    2017 so far will exceed either, and when finally accounted, may exceed both together. Importantly, severe damage is much more widespread. Houston area, western Florida, and from Dominica to Turks and Caicos islands. Only Cuba and Hispanola (along that arc) have not had severe damage.

    It would be very surprising if 2017 monetary damage does not set a new record. In terms of damage extent, it already has.

    Three current storms will likely play themselves out over water. No new storms are forming, but with a week left in September, 2017 season is far from over in terms of calendar and climatology.

    ===
    All that risks minimising* 1998, with a financial toll <$20 billions. However in that year Mitch killed at least 11,000 in Central America. We can only hope that record will long stand.
     
  2. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    In terms of 'ACE', 2017 season so far is just below 92nd percentile in entire HURDAT (since 1851). HURDAT record has been (appropriately) criticised* for possibly missing storms in early years. But as large storms would be hard to miss in well-traveled seas, that percentile seems pretty solid.

    Viewed another way, 2017 is not the most energetic hurricane year. It has been, unfortunately, very accurate in terms of 'targeting'.
     
  3. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    While 2017 season was predicted to be above average, it already exceeds them all and is not finished. In particular ACE has been higher than predicted.

    All predictions are based on quantified atmosphere and marine aspects, and this shortfall will lead to efforts to improve them I am sure.

    To some it may seem churlish for me to mention comments@111 that such predictions amount to casting of chicken bones. There it was suggested that solar cycles (sunspot numbers) are predictive. Now, with annual data on both, I decided to take a look. I found no positive correlations between annual sunspot numbers with #named storms, #hurricanes, #major hurricanes, or ACE. None at all. over the entire HURDAT record, or for more recent shorter subsets where we could be confident that no storms were missed.

    Because 2017 is not finished either in storms or sunspots it was not included. But high in the former and low in the latter, it will only make things worse.

    No reason to further berate this hypothesis @111. Will only say that as hurricane predictions are refined, I strongly doubt they would add the solar cycle.
     
  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    @#261 inflation and population plays a part.
     
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  5. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I agree completely. It means that risk is also increasing even in absence of any increase in storm metrics. There are still places that have not been hit hard, not only Miami.

    For those that have been, recovery and future mitigation ought to lead to rational discussions about 'how it ought to be done'.

    It was fortunate that US went several years without notable landfalls. Treating that as evidence against climate-change impacts misses the point. Years without big wind and water were an opportunity to prepare. A wasted opportunity. Not, I hope, completely wasted.
     
  6. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Ah memories. Back in 2016 it was still fashionable to link to stories (see@30) describing 9 years without US landfall of cat 3, 4 or 5 hurricanes. Our poster seems to have had other reasons for linking, but Livescience called it "luck".

    Even 2018 Hurricane Matthew did not break that streak, if one is content that the eyewall did not contact US. It did cause 47 deaths and $10 billions damage in US, but if eyewall is more your interest, that's OK I guess.

    But in 2017 it is clear that lucky streak has ended. Three US landfalls of major hurricanes. Only 2 if you'd rather not think about Puerto Rico. We appropriately emphasize recovery and say less about previous hype that hurricanes are 'down' with CO2.

    They are certainly not down unless one can only see streaks of one color and not the other. They are (ever so slightly) up throughout HURDAT record since 1851. Stronger trends across N. Atlantic of ups and downs are present, but I don't know what relates to (or causes) them. Seems a very appropriate research topic.

    Sunspot number is not an attractive hypothesis as they were low in both 2016 and 2017 and both were active hurricane seasons. So I suppose it is unsurprising that our main SSN proponent has busied himself elsewhere.

    Best news I can offer for 2017 is that no new storms are currently forming.
     
  7. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  8. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Tropical Storm Nate has already caused over 20 deaths while crossing the Yucatan.
    It will likely reach Cat 1 strength by the time it reaches the north coast of the Gulf.
     
  9. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Has passed over Nicaragua, Yucatan is next.
     
  10. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    if people would stop eating sea turtles, perhaps they would recover.
     
  11. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    The outer bands of Nate are visible from NOAA ground based radar at Key West and New Orleans/Baton Rouge. The satellite IR images suggest it is growing rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Bob Wilson
     
  12. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i hope the populations and protections there are lower, and stronger than pre katrina.
     
  13. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    I forgot the "peninsula".
     
  14. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Hurricane Nate is currently arriving at New Orleans and eastward. Winds of about 100 mph will decrease inland rapidly per forecast. Storm surge is an immediate coastal issue. Damages much less than $1 billion this time we can hope.
     
  15. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Another interesting aspect of H. Nate was its very rapid northward motion through Gulf of Mexico. Have heard nothing about whether that caused trouble for fishing boats and oil rigs.
     
  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Huntsville Alabama is seeing rain with no significant winds.

    Bob Wilson
     
  17. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Atlantic hurricane season officially ends 30 Nov. But with no current trop. depressions in view, and water cooling off, I claim closure. Or at least, fatigue.

    2017 had 16 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 'majors of cat. 3 or above. No pre-season prediction had so high a central prediction. Accumulated cyclone energy was 221 (in its dizzy units) ranking 7th since records began, and that was higher than any prediction for the year.

    More importantly for wetware, 2017 had several strong landfalls and recovery remains incomplete. Damage >$billions is a record.

    Since 1851, all hurricane metrics for N. Atl have increased as smoothed over decades. But they have not increased monotonically. There have been ups and downs much larger than that overall trend.

    It is fair to claim causes of large ups and downs remain unknown. Also fair to say we are by no means prepared for strong landfalls that happen. This is most important matter for the N Atl hurricane human nexus. The storms won't go away, nor the people. If arguing about climate interferes with doing what needs to be done, then we are dropping the ball.

    So, until next year ...:)
     
  18. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i don't think arguing about climate is the problem, i think it is the stubbornness of mankind. likely before the next major landfall, unless it comes quickly, devised area's will be rebuilt to new levels.
     
  19. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I disagree. Since previous strong hurricane year 2005, media (I might also suppose public) attention was on hurricane drought.

    Too much "Ha in your face climate alarmists".

    Not enough "Of course there will be strong storms in future; how shall we prepare?"
     
  20. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    what do you disagree with? i'm saying what will happen, you're saying what should happen.
     
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