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Fact check: climate models are overestimating observed temperatures

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by bwilson4web, Sep 22, 2017.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I saw the original paper and it was sad. Regardless, here is a much better rebuttal: Factcheck: Climate models have not 'exaggerated' global warming

    Lead author Dr Richard Millar and his co-authors have pushed back against such media coverage, releasing a statement which says:

    A number of media reports have asserted that our [study] indicates that global temperatures are not rising as fast as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and hence that action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is no longer urgent. Both assertions are false. Our results are entirely in line with the IPCC’s 2013 prediction that temperatures in the 2020s would be 0.9-1.3 degrees above pre-industrial [levels].
    . . . ​

    [​IMG]

    Additionally, Carbon Brief has asked Prof Piers Forster, one of the authors, to further clarify some of the paper’s findings and methodologies in light of the media coverage:

    Our paper focussed on carbon emissions and the feasibility of limiting future warming to 1.5C. We concluded that we would only succeed with strengthened policies to bring rapid and sustained emission reduction.

    We made estimates of the allowable future emissions of carbon before we pass 1.5C. To do this we made assumptions about past warming, exploring different levels of warming from 2015 to address the role of uncertainty in historic warming levels. Readers should note that our method is only one way of computing the budget. The IPCC special report on 1.5C will need to consider it alongside other lines of evidence. The usefulness of the carbon budget concept will also likely be assessed given its inherent uncertainty due to the uncertain historic warming.

    I think some press reporting is misleading as our paper did not assess climate impacts or climate model performance. Rather, our paper confirms the need for much increased urgent action from around the world if society stands a chance of limiting warming to 1.5C.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #1 bwilson4web, Sep 22, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2017
  2. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    There aren't any people who actually say there is no such thing as global warming, is there? The issue really is how significant is our industrial society that causes it to rise - that raises so much debate.
    .
     
  3. drysider

    drysider Active Member

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    Unfortunately, our government is no longer interested in data and observations. If it doesn't conform to the approved world view, it is fake news. The whole concept of warming and change is slowly being edited out of the governmental web sites. The real irony is that it makes no difference whether you are a believer or a denier. It is not something that is subject to political spin. A cursory look at the yearly tropical storm history in the Atlantic and Caribbean makes it very clear that something is happening on a long term basis. Ignoring the Paris Accords will change nothing. I wouldn't say we are in the Twilight Zone, but it is right there on the horizon:


    WAR IS PEACE

    FREEDOM IS SLAVERY

    IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH.
     
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    "tropical storm history in the Atlantic". There has been an increase throughout entire period of record. There also have been multi-year ups and downs of much larger magnitude. AFAIK the latter have not been linked to any plausible mechanism. This seems an important matter.
     
  5. drysider

    drysider Active Member

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    Here is the chart of Atlantic storms for the last 160 years. I think that the whole point is to find the mechanism causing the increase. Global warming seems a likely culprit. The issue is how much is human caused. We will still be arguing that when New York is 5 feet under water.
     

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  6. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    "We will still be arguing that..."

    I hope not. I hope instead that we will be better protecting lives and property in hot zones.
     
  7. drysider

    drysider Active Member

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    I do not think much will be done until there is a crisis of some kind. Just like Houston and the flood basins, spending money on future disasters is never popular. Better to wait until the enemy is at the gates.
     
  8. wxman

    wxman Active Member

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    Keep in mind that the technology to track storms globally has changed dramatically over the past 160 years.
     
  9. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Vecchi and Knutson 2011 study suggests N Atl missing hurricanes were 3/year in 1878 and fell to 0 by 1965. Based on where known ship tracks left observation holes.

    They do not comment on possible strengths of hurricanes possibly missed. If those were weak ones, they would have little effect on ACE and its trends.

    Any patterns that may be present over most recent 50+ years remain unaffected.
     
  10. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Like guard rails on country roads. They aren't installed until someone dies, and the responsible government is sued.
     
  11. drysider

    drysider Active Member

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    There have been some interesting studies to see how much money people would spend today to possibly avoid much larger expenditures in the future (15-20 years). It turns out, not much. Flood insurance is really inexpensive, but people still don't buy it. The stores always empty out when bad things start happening because folks do not have food for that evening, much less a couple of weeks stashed away. It used to be 3 days of supplies, but now I think it is more like 2 weeks.