Thinking of waiting for the 2008 Prius -- lease or buy another car in the meantime?

Hi Kyto, you should buy now!!!

 

The rumored 100+ mpg hybrid is based on Imperial gallons, which is means 94 mpg. But, we have no idea what kind of driving cycle they're quoting. http://priuschat.com/index.php?s=&showtopi...ndpost&p=237709 says "Don't forget, the current Prius gets 75mpg US according to the Japanese 10-15 cycle so 94 mpg isn't far fetched. That probably just means that more of us can reach 60mpg."

The EPA rating for the current Prius is 60/51 and Consumer Reports got 44 mpg... It seems that people are typically getting ~42 to low to mid 50s on here in real driving (not hypermiling).

So, you should weigh whether you think waiting till say 2007 or 2008 is worth it given that the $3150 tax credit will be most likely gone by then unless Congress passes something to extend it. Is spending $3150 more later worth the gas savings and whatever new features/tech that the next gen Prius has?

Also, since you're in the Bay Area, do you care about the HOV stickers? We'll be hitting the 75K cap on those stickers real soon but they expire on 1/2008 unless the the expiration is extended by some bill/law.

 

Go ahead and buy a Prius, they hold their value rather well and if you decide you can't live without a 2008 or 2009 model sell yours and buy one. I may do that myself.

Be very careful of leases, a lot of people get ripped off buying new cars (and used ones); but even more people get ripped off with leases. My personal rule has always been "never lease a car" and after talking to some who have I think it's a good rule.

 

Cwerdna's post is spot on. The next gen Prius spec is still rumor. I tend to believe a 15% improvement in fuel economy based on the ~ 83 mpg the current Prius obtains in the Japanese test cycle, and hope for a plug-in option even if limited to 10 mile range.

The tax credit will likely cover any depreciation should you decide to switch.

There is also something to be said for not being on the bleeding edge, which would push you out to 2010 or so.

 

Why do you think hybrids will depreciate more than non-hybrids? There aren't enough used ones to go around. When the new models come out there still won't be enough used ones for people that want one but can't afford a new one. The technology will be "proven". People will want them. Especially if they're still getting 48 mpg and the other used cars are getting half of that.

With the tax credit, you could probably buy a new 2006 now and then sell it in fall 2008 for a new model 2009 and do just as well as if you'd bought some small, cheap beater.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(kyto @ Jun 28 2006, 11:31 PM) [snapback]278448[/snapback]</div>

You have ? two right for sure !!!!!!
If you can get by with a real beater then maybe you can wait. But take away the tax refund and the depreciation on a nice car and you may as well buy now and if (thats a big if) the "NEW" Prius is a big improvement, buy one............
Another way to go would be to buy an old well restored classic, tool around in it for a couple years and maybe sell at a profit
And last of all if you would like a real good, one owner 2000 Jetta VR6. LET ME KNOW!!!!!

 

I think you have two good choices. Either buy a cheap used car that will somewhat hold it's value, or buy the Prius now.

Keep in mind that when the '09 Prius comes out in 2008, there will be a HUGE demand. In other words, don't count on getting one in 2008 unless you're willing to pay several thousand over MSRP. And you probably wouldn't get the color or package you want either. :mellow:

Leasing a car really doesn't make much financial sense to me, but I'm sure there are some conditions that warrants it.

 

well hard to say as it sounds as if you may not have a pressing need for a car since you have gone 7 years now without one so this makes it a pretty tough call.

if you did need a car right now, i would not wait. the Prius is simply too much better than the 2nd best option imho.

also, the increase in mileage is only really incremental. the possibility of a plug in is WAAAY more exciting to me.

but Toyota has a great track record of worthwhile improvements on the Prius and i see nothing that would change my mind on that.

plus, its the hurry up and wait syndrome. hopefully you dont feel the same way about computers or cellphones. in 2008 there will no doubt be rumours of something bigger and better in two years. that is Toyota's job. keep the excitement up.

as i said... tough call

 

why wait for a 2008 ? it will basially be the same as the '06 and '07 models...the toatally redesigned Prius wont be here until 09

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Godiva @ Jun 29 2006, 02:55 PM) [snapback]278744[/snapback]</div>

That bizarre belief is really starting to get out of hand. It has no reflection to reality for Prius. Value has held remarkably high, near record levels in fact. Meanwhile, traditional guzzlers are losing value so fast that owners are trapped between the extra expense for gas and the loss incurred from selling it.

As for the next generation rumors, they are making me crazy.

First, it almost certainly will be a 2009 model... since Toyota said it would be available sometime in 2008. That would resemble the rollout of the 2007 Camry. So not saying "2009" is definitely contributing to confusion.

Second, the hints from Toyota are very much in line with that we saw for the HSD model. The upgrade was an undeniable improvement, even if you knew little about the older technology. (My hunch is that it will deliver a solid 60 MPG during the pleasant months.)

Third, people are blowing the plug-in hope way out of proportion. It will indeed be a wonderful thing. But certainly not for everyone anytime soon. It is quite simply way too expensive right now. We have to wait for battery costs to drop. Mass acceptance is a number of years away still, especially since misconceptions about electric propulsion continue to thrive.

Patience.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(kyto @ Jun 29 2006, 12:31 AM) [snapback]278448[/snapback]</div>

Buy the car now if you need a car now. Look at all the money you'll save. Wait for what? You remind me of my Dad who's been waiting since 1999 to buy a new computer cause a better one is coming........

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(kyto @ Jun 29 2006, 12:31 AM) [snapback]278448[/snapback]</div>

Keep in mind that it's "100+ MPG" only when you plug it in. Basically, it will have better batteries so that you can run it in EV mode for longer.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(john1701a @ Aug 11 2006, 12:21 PM) [snapback]301520[/snapback]</div>

Part of this is insanity and part of this is related to availability. I saw used Priuses being sold for more, after including the tax credit, than new Priuses. This made no sense.


Keep in mind the tax credit available on the Prius currently.

 

as far as depreciation goes, you should check on what a 2004 Prius in good condition with 28000 miles is worth. its resale and trade in values are both higher than what i paid for the vehicle

 

Your cheapest option is to buy a good 5 year old used car (civic, corolla etc) for about 5-6k and hold onto it for a couple years. Most of the depreciation has been taken out of these cars already so any lower value will be attributed mostly to miles and maintenance. Plus since this is your first car its my opinion that you really don't want to pay 20k+ for a new car.

I'll give you some advice that I probably shouldn't on a car forum, but here goes anyway. Cars are a financial trap. People who tend to buy expensive new cars early on will continue to do so and dump lots of money into maintaining and exchanging cars. But those who start out with cheap ones will tend not to be as car obsessed.

 

Given that you will have to pay 8.25% sales tax on any used car you buy (even if you buy out-of-state), I would suggest that you look at cheaper used cars rather than more expensive ones that will still hold their value, if your intent is to resell it after a year or two. $25k x 8.25% is over $2000 that you will lose right off the top.

 

It's a close call but I'd say buy a used Prius. Factor in that gas prices could soon pass $ 4 per gallon which could mean a yearly savings of $ 3000 to $ 4000 per year over a conventional car depending on the type and amount of driving you do. If you have it two years before the 2008/2009 model comes out then it could mean $ 7000 in fuel savings, three years $ 10,500. As gas prices rise and stay high, the used Prius will also retain its resale value.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Karnac @ Aug 13 2006, 10:51 AM) [snapback]302595[/snapback]</div>

Oh come on... $3-4k savings in gas per year is a gross exaggeration unless we're comparing the prius to a large SUV (and even then...) If you were to drive 15k miles averaging 32 mpg your gas bill is $1875 assuming $4 per gallon. At 48 mpg your cost is $1250, a savings of $625. I do agree that $4 a gallon is inevitable but how soon will it occur? It could be the end of this year or it may be much longer.

Factor in depreciation (pretty good for the prius until the hit when a new model comes out) loan interest, taxes, maintenance etc. and a used econo car is the obvious cheaper solution.

 

I don't mean to be rude, but this is 2006. If you're planning to wait two years for a car no one has any idea what it'll even look like... you're living a fantasy. <_<