Green New Deal -- Limitations

Don’t drink and walk

 

Amazon is selling plenty of them, discretely without any affinity group logos, not only in different assorted calibers, but different colors too. Of course, with a cleaning rod/brush.

Too late, Amazon is selling many high capacity boxes of them, 20+ units. Without any background check. And even shipping direct to home, across state lines without requiring pickup at any federally licensed dealer.

They even have foldable easily-concealed units, which the underage can easily sneak into school. Be afraid. Be very very afraid!

 

We shouldn't be using scary movie fiction to drive public policy.

This is pure FUD. Scaremongering. It will backfire and severely hamper honest efforts to deal with CC.

Even if CC accelerates and the oceans rise near the top end of estimates a century out, several meters, the Earth as a whole will not be a dry bleak dust bowl. It will still have plenty of green and colorful vegetation. Sure, hundreds of millions of people would be displaced, existing dust bowls will have expanded, plenty of still-existing flora and fauna will have been displaced or extinguished by invasive varieties migrating from their current areas, etc. But many places will be getting additional rain, turning currently brownish and frozen areas into lush new greenbelts. Not at all what we currently consider to be natural or normal, but green and lush nonetheless, even if diversity shrivels.

We will have to greatly re-adapt, and much of what we have now may be greatly altered, only some of it 'better' to us. But it won't be a grey burned-out dustbowl with no vegetation anywhere.

At least, not that soon.

 

Solar domestic water heating systems face the same issue. At least in areas such as here, where freezing winter weather makes potable water an unsuitable working fluid in the collectors, so other fluids are frequently used. But there are solutions.

Blanket bans on residential drain water heat recovery are driven by ignorance of the various solutions to prevent cross-contamination. Have those AHJs ever heard the phrase 'double-walled'?

Early on, electric hybrid cars faced similar ignorance and FUD from certain emergency responders absolutely terrified of the high voltage, and unaware of what had been done to protect them. Solar PV systems also faced severe and unreasonable restrictions from certain fire code authorities, sharply limiting and sometimes eliminating the allowed roof space that could be covered by PV modules. Some of them have since become more enlightened and flexible.

 

Again, you are missing the point. Poor industrial policy is one of the reasons the USSR collapsed. They couldn't harvest the food they were growing...for example.
The battery supply was just an "example" of the problems you can run into.

The same issues apply to building heat pumps, water heaters, farm tractors, railroads and everything else the GND wants to set deadlines for that require huge ramps in production of things. Over building the entire supply chains and factories for these types of products will lead to all sorts of economic issues, but is also a flat out waste of resources and would increase CO2 production in the short term because we don't have a way to do the "ramping" of those things without fossil fuels today.

Mike

 

I thought of this thread when we were walking the dog this morning, past a newly-minted drive-thru Starbucks.

All the zombies in their idling CUV's, who'd rather be sitting there catching up on FaceBook, can't come up with a cup of coffee on their own. It's a horseshoe shaped lineup, close to 15 vehicles. As usual.

 

They use a loop with food grade antifreeze.

Pennsylvania code doesn't draw a distinction between grey and black waste water. So I'm aware these codes written on ignorance, and like the vehicle code, it can be take time to change them. I mention it to remind people that they might not simply be able to do as they please without running afoul of regulations.

 

Yes, we need to do far more that 'slightly more efficient' or 'pollute 20% less'. But the goal I've been seeing is for an 80% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050. Not 100%.

80% is reachable in many portions of the economy, without the gloom and doom and lukewarm shower water and loss of indoor comfort from dialed-down heat and air conditioning. E.g. on those aspects, I've already driven my all-electric house's emissions down essentially 100%. Half of that is from efficiency improvements, the other half by home solar energy production.

80% reduction means 5X improvement in efficiency or reduced consumption. For homes starting with old-fashioned electric heat, this means a heat pump with an HSPF rating of 17 (=5 x 3.412 btu/Wh) would suffice in most reasonable climates. No such thing is yet commercially available, but units rated at 15 do exist right now, and many more units are rated 12+. But a new heating appliance isn't the old way to save. Most homes are not anywhere near as well insulated, sealed against air infiltration, or using/rejecting solar heat gain as they should or were intended to be, so building envelope upgrades can contribute to conservation too, reaching that goal today.

My decade-old heat pump unit is rated 10, which by itself got me only a (1 - 3.4/10) = 66% reduction on that heat, not 80%. But various envelope upgrades, fixes to original construction errors (leaks, insulation gaps), and conscious harvesting of winter solar gain, boosted the savings. And also eliminated my (already infrequent in this climate zone) need for air conditioning.

For hot water, a traditional electric heater should have an energy factor (EF) of about 0.95. An EF increase to 5 would cover that Year-2050 goal, but none are yet available. A tankless on-demand unit has an EF of just 1.00, which is such a small improvement that I must dismiss it as inadequate.

In my area, we use the cold Northern Climate (NC) rating system for heat pump water heaters (HPWH). Today's rebate-qualified models have NC-EF ratings of 2.8 to 3.4, still short of 5.0 but going a long way in the right direction. Combined with improved clothes washers, dishwashers, and adoption of low-flow shower heads (or shorter showers) to reduce total hot water need, one can make the Year-2050 goal right now for this element.

In 'regular' climate zones, HPWHs have UEFs (Uniform EF) ratings reaching 3.7, closer to that goal. But warmer and more southerly folks should get still better results, and be able to hit that goal right now without any other measures. And the folks who go for water heat integrated with their home air conditioning, essentially getting a 2-fer on their electric energy, should be sitting really pretty.

These are only a couple narrow slices of the overall energy pie, but illustrate what is possible. Not all slices are as easily addressed, and will be more resistant to reductions, so we'll need to push these easier slices farther as make-up.

 

The overstatements and scaremongering also give energy, credibility, and validity to the deniers who can correctly debunk them. You are handing them some victories, at your own expense. And giving legs to the cries of 'Fake News'.

 

Kinda ironic that you try to make this parallel. The party pushing the CC issue today was also the party of segregation and the KKK back in grandfather's day.

 

evpv recently stated........

the attendees are emotional about the environment. Close to militant in some situations, notice that they liken the urgency of the "climate catastrophe" to WWII. They view wasteful lifestyles with disdain. You aren't going to satisfy them by saying you'll pollute 20% less, or keep flying but use slightly more efficient airplanes, or "optimize" the route of giant diesel shipping vessels. Their vision of "good stewards of the planet" is way beyond cutting back a little. No fossil fuels, no meat, no single use plastics, no compromise.

They're most likely going to live unhappy, unsatisfied and miserable lives....

No insults intended.....

Who wants to be the guy who's great grandchildren live in shame because their great grandfather was a Climate Denier?

I doubt most people walk around all day worrying about who their GGF was or what he did. Most people are just trying to live their lives.

Kinda like if your grandfather was a segregationist and vocal leader of the local KKK branch. Not a great look, in retrospect.

I would imagine most people couldn't care less what someone's family tree looks like or who they are or what they did. Different times have different cultures. We have to accept that. We're being ignorant trying to rewrite the history books and erase things from the past because they're not PC today. For me and most, you stand on your own, good or bad.

Those people who DO worry about those things are part of the problem, not the solution.

Climate activism is the moral high-ground, that's why climate activists will prevail over deniers.

An awful lot of people have gone 6 feet under while insisting they're the moral high ground on various issues..in the big scheme of things (like when reality strikes) moral high ground does not guarantee victory anywhere except (usually) in movies. In reality, as the old saying goes....money makes the world go around. In the end, it's always money.

One thing I sometimes ask myself in various situations....is this the hill I want to die on? or is this hill ok to let go and I can win the 5 smaller hills surrounding it?

80/20 rule, my friend....learn it and live it...……………..

Another thing I try to do.....I don't tell other people how to live their lives. I don't try to force my beliefs on others. I'm happy to share my viewpoint in a discussion, but I also believe others have the right to share theirs.

 

Even The Boy Who Cried Wolf was on the right side.

Just once.

Even a stopped clock has a better track record.

 

Sadly true, but its not quite accurate nowadays. The political faction within the Democrats (aka Dixiecrats or Southern Democrats) that was pro-segregation/KKK at the time largely moved to the GOP after the passing of the Civil Rights Act/Voting Rights Act. That faction is now one of the biggest CC deniers, that happen to be Republicans now.

 

^ yes, now. But they were die-hard Democrats back then, before LBJ, an undeniable part of the party's heritage.

 

... and without many of the sacrifices you appeared resigned to back in your base post.