SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

It is one day with confirmed existing cases in China being less than day before. In about 100 days, by extrapolation, deaths may no longer increase. Current severe cases (11977) will mostly recover, but surely not all.

New viral transmissions may be past peak. Youse may have no idea how many people are working to control that. New viral deaths are at best halfway done. A lot of families including those with medical people are damaged.

For me the words "the worst is over" mean that Wuhan/Hubei/nearby provinces begin to resume normal functions. Even my distant Yunnan province has no exit date from 'special conditions' yet to be seen.

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Media wise, each next thousand dead and ten thousand cases will make things for you to click on.

 

1918 Influenza is a very complex story and not all aspects are known. Perhaps never to be.

Some highlights, it had 3 very nasty genes that seem to have made it excellent in growing in bronchial epithelium. Not so good for the breathers, as there were not bottles of oxygen available. It developed in humans during wartime and soldiers being shuttled about is virus-good. It is called Spanish flu because Spain was not in that war and its news reports were not censored. It also kills chicken embryos, so even if vaccine tech was available then, this convenient mode would have been unavailable.

When DNA vaccine folks get some spare time, they might do well to look at those 3 genes. In a level 4 containment facility of course

 

Current status of cases in China as a pie:


Recovered are out of the game (except as potential blood plasma donors as mentioned earlier). Severe may move to recovered, or die. Seems their only two options. Suspected is a tricky category, see below. Confirmed have 3 options. This really calls for a 'box and flow' model, but it is under-determined so I can't proceed there.

I post this to give a sense of relative sizes. But it has potential to mislead. First it is a 'current counts' snapshot. We cannot conclude that outcomes for 'severe' correspond to sizes of 'recovered' or 'die' slices.

A large problem is that these categories total ~90 thousand, while total cases (not a category here) is about 75.5. Numbers don't add up. I suppose this means that earlier 'suspected' went directly to 'recovered' and never got counted in 'total cases'. Not sure of that, nor of how to become sure.

Finally, not fond of Excel's default color palette, but no time today to fiddle with that.

 

Bisquick meant to include

New coronavirus may spread through poop | Live Science

Wash your hands kids.

 

Respiratory viral infections lead to snot (absent a better term). Some gets swallowed and on through the digestive tract where large variations in pH may not cause disassembly. If this is first exploration of that other avenue, it comes none too soon.