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SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  2. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    ...It is possible they were first given a false negative test result, which can happen if the swab used to collect samples of the virus misses bits of the virus. Dr. Li Wenliang, a whistleblowing doctor who later died of the virus himself in February, tested negative for the coronavirus several times before being accurately diagnosed.

    In February, Wang Chen, a director at the state-run Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, estimated that the nucleic acid tests used in China were accurate at identifying positive cases of the coronavirus only 30%-50% of the time.

    Another theory is that, because the test amplifies tiny bits of DNA, residual virus from the initial infection could have falsely resulted in that second positive reading...

    Really hard to better understand this pandemic and develop optimal strategies when this is just one of many problems we have with our data. We have plenty of models but we're probably modeling (insert expletive noun of your choice).
     
    #1182 iplug, Mar 29, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
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  3. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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  4. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Iceland will be something interesting to watch unfold. Over at the Johns Hopkins global case map, at the moment they are only at 2 deaths per 1020 reported cases.

    Based on trends from elsewhere, this would suggest such low mortality rates are at the moment from relatively high per capita testing and perhaps vigilance in starting to capture the actual case curve days to a couple weeks sooner than average. Also, relatively low median age for an industrialized nation and low population density seem thus far to correlate with lower reported mortality rates elsewhere. Not implying necessarily this will line up well to actual mortality rate when this is all said and done and measured retrospectively with appropriate serum IgG testing.

    Certainly things can change in Iceland in days and weeks from now, and like most places that appear to start with relatively low mortality ratios, these inevitably rise when not expanding testing populations as the death counts lag.
     
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  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    We know HIV, another RNA virus (aren't they all?), tended to mutate often enough that it led to different strains. Without the redundancy of a double strand, transcription errors are likely.

    I applaud the mad dash to release the ~30 various test kits. But I am skeptical that they will have universal agreement when tested on a fixed set of subjects. This is where quality metrics are critical so we quickly identify the "happy tests" (i.e., false negatives.)

    Bob Wilson
     
  6. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Many different kinds of viruses. The largest difference (I'd say) is between those that replicate in bacteria compared to those that use complex animals (and plants). The former just shoot in their DNA. The latter must get entirely slurped into cells. It is really a large difference. I suppose they represent (at least) two evolutionary jumps.

    Single strand RNA viruses have a cleaner-upper enzyme that limits read/write errors.
     
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  7. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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    No, there are many DNA viruses. Adenovirus, cytomegalovirus, Herpes simplex virus, Smallpox virus are examples of known infectious DNA viruses for human hosts.
     
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  8. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    read an article written by a 40 y.o. doc today. he got extremely sick, tested negative, then got sicker, tested positive.

    he and some colleagues are starting to think it's floating in the air in hospitals, and there's no avoiding it.

    he said the symptoms he has are worse than any illness he has ever experienced.
     
  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    March 16, 2020 report: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

    In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.
    . . .
    Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. . . . In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.

    Bob Wilson
     
  10. Prodigyplace

    Prodigyplace Senior Member

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    That was mentioned in the task force briefing today. The US has extended the isolation recommendation until the end of April. They are promising a data rich briefing on Tuesday.
     
  11. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Yeah I read that article. UK data are driving the Gompertz model crazy because they hop up and down.

    Fatality rate there is around 2.7%. Higher than Germany, lower than US.
     
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  12. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    The Guardian posted a summary of today's briefing and included a link to the UK, March 16, study:
    Coronavirus US live: Trump extends distancing guidelines and attacks media at briefing | World news | The Guardian

    I'll read a report about Trump proclamations AFTER fact checkers do their work.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  13. Prodigyplace

    Prodigyplace Senior Member

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    The experts say they will present the facts on Tuesday.
     
  14. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Facts on Tuesday PM (US Eastern) might be:

    140 to 178 thousand cases
    2500 to 3400 fatalities

    Different sites give different current numbers.
     
  15. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    you folks keep conflating the fhop and non fhop threads :)
     
  16. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    most worldometer numbers down from yesterday, maybe we're hitting the inflection...
     
  17. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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    According to JHU site, China is the only country that has reached the plateau on confirmed cases. South Korea's numbers have slowed down, but not flat. All other countries are still on an exponential increase.
     
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  18. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    You folks who folks?
     
  19. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    ... or maybe it is just weekend reporting issues. BTDT.
     
  20. RobH

    RobH Senior Member

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    I've gone on quite a bit on how Dr. Robert Cathcart cured illness with vitamin C. Short video about how dogs and cats don't get colds because they make their own ascorbate.



    And here's a 26 minute lecture overview of his experience with C. Audio is poor the first minute or so, but clears up after that.



    There are many more short videos available by searching YouTube.com for "robert cathcart". I suspect that using C the way he did would eliminate the need for ventilators, or even hospital beds for that matter.