1. Attachments are working again! Check out this thread for more details and to report any other bugs.

SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    107,571
    48,862
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    that's what i use. something is wrong with the 'now' numbers

    am i reading it wrong? 'yesterday' says 20,353
     
  2. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2009
    17,036
    10,011
    90
    Location:
    Western Washington
    Vehicle:
    Other Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    That was Monday on the UTC clock that is uses. I am on the PDT clock, where it still is Monday, so it is still 'today' for me. And also for you on the EDT clock.
     
    bisco likes this.
  3. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    8,972
    3,501
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    'fake it' to appear healthy@1226

    Sounds good but not sure how far it really goes. Some predators success rates are controlled in the 'run-down' phase. Of a group of prey, slowest one gets taken. Other success rates are controlled in the 'processing' phase. Fight back, bite kick and scratch, perhaps you will be dismissed as a poor meal choice. Ambush predators collect those less wary. Not a complete list.

    So I'm not sure if prey successful at staying off the menu are appearing healthy - they are healthy by any realistic definition.

    Faking it may be more important in sexual selection. Bower birds are weird.
     
    Robert Holt likes this.
  4. RobH

    RobH Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2006
    2,369
    978
    70
    Location:
    Sunnyvale, California
    Vehicle:
    2006 Prius
    http://www.doctoryourself.com/IVAA-COVID19-Hospital-Use-Anderson-03.24.2020.pdf

     
    SFO likes this.
  5. Prodigyplace

    Prodigyplace Senior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2016
    11,696
    11,317
    0
    Location:
    Central Virginia
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius
    Model:
    Two
    Here are some interesting graph projections for US and per state. They are projecting 17 days until peak in US and 8 days for New York.

    COVID-19
     
  6. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2015
    10,958
    8,836
    0
    Location:
    New England
    Vehicle:
    Other Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    So I read most of the refs listed on the topic of the origin of SARS-CoV-2 virus. What I gathered was that while zoonotic transfer must have occurred sometimes in the past, phylogenetic analyses of many SARS-CoV-2 related coronaviruses in nature (a paper suggests more than 200) seems to suggest this jump might have taken place some times ago, maybe years. An intriguing possibility is that it means, after all, the SARS-CoV-2 virus may not have originated in the Huanan seafood and wildlife market in Wuhan, China as widely believed. The notion that unmutated SARS-CoV-2 virus may have been transmitted among human populations for years may complicate surveillance and testing effort.
     
  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    107,571
    48,862
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    mit associate professor lydia bourouiba, in a newly published paper says 'studies show corona virus can be orally projected up to 27 feet, linger in the air for hours, and live in hospital hvac systems.'
     
    Robert Holt likes this.
  8. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2005
    19,605
    8,036
    54
    Location:
    Montana & Nashville, TN
    Vehicle:
    2004 Prius
    Model:
    IV
    shame the graph isn't broken down by countries / multiples
    .
     
    Prodigyplace likes this.
  9. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2009
    17,036
    10,011
    90
    Location:
    Western Washington
    Vehicle:
    Other Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    Five days later, we are now #3 on the reported death toll list, having surpassed Iran and France yesterday, and China today. I won't get into the suspicions about China possibly under-reporting. The two countries ahead of us, Italy and Spain, are unlikely to change positions on the leaderboard anytime soon.

    For total cases (not deaths), we are rapidly expanding our lead :( and will likely cross 200,000 tomorrow. Italy joined us in the 6-digit club yesterday.

    China and the European countries should be essentially done reporting for today,. The U.S. is not similarly done for the day, so expect more.

    upload_2020-3-31_13-0-58.png
     
    #1250 fuzzy1, Mar 31, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2020
    hill, Robert Holt and Prodigyplace like this.
  10. Robert Holt

    Robert Holt Senior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2013
    1,313
    888
    0
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius
    Model:
    Three
    Many folks use a Continuous Positive Air Pressure (CPAP) machine for breathing assistance at night. A CPAP provides air under light pressure that keeps the air passages more open than they would otherwise be and allows some of us to sleep normally.
    The Italians have adapted such machines with the help of the Mercedes Formula 1 team to use for the cases of COVID-19 pneumonia that are not severe enough to require intubation (link below). One disadvantage of using a CPAP for treating COVID-19 in a hospital is that it tends to aerosolize the droplets with virus in the exhaled air, and thus may spread the virus.
    However, In a home setting where the patient is living alone or all other humans have already recovered from the virus, that disadvantage may not be as significant. Thus, folks with a CPAP system at home may have an emergency backup breathing aid if they are only having slight difficulties and proper medical care is completely unavailable. But I surely wish I could purchase one of those Mercedes F1 adaptors!

    Coronavirus: Mercedes F1 to make breathing aid Coronavirus: Mercedes F1 to make breathing aid - BBC News
     
    RobH likes this.
  11. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    107,571
    48,862
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    ny times: 'kinsa corp. temperature map shows virus slowing everywhere in the country'
     
  12. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    8,972
    3,501
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    Gompertz model predictions have decreased for many areas

    COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Infected People

    For example, US anticipated case totals decreased from >2 million to <2 million to <1 million to 783 thousand now. Those came over 4 days.

    Again, it is based only on reported data until now. It could go back up, and obviously people will be watching daily reports.

    Other countries are also moving in this optimistic direction.

    ==
    It is possible to anticipate lower total US fatalities from this, than are 'as seen on TV'. No particular outcome is certain, but at least I can say that better outcomes are possible.
     
    Robert Holt likes this.
  13. SFO

    SFO Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2017
    5,286
    4,225
    0
    Location:
    Northern California
    Vehicle:
    2007 Prius
    Model:
    N/A
    Read the whole article at : Coronavirus: How scientists are tracking 8 strains of SARS-CoV-2 virus

    SAN FRANCISCO – At least eight strains of the coronavirus are making their way around the globe, creating a trail of death and disease that scientists are tracking by their genetic footprints.

    While much is unknown, hidden in the virus's unique microscopic fragments are clues to the origins of its original strain, how it behaves as it mutates and which strains are turning into conflagrations while others are dying out thanks to quarantine measures.

    Huddled in once bustling and now almost empty labs, researchers who oversaw dozens of projects are instead focused on one goal: tracking the current strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that cause the illness COVID-19.

    Labs around the world are turning their sequencing machines, most about the size of a desktop printer, to the task of rapidly sequencing the genomes of virus samples taken from people sick with COVID-19. The information is uploaded to a website called NextStrain.org that shows how the virus is migrating and splitting into similar but new subtypes.

    While researchers caution they're only seeing the tip of the iceberg, the tiny differences between the virus strains suggest shelter-in-place orders are working in some areas and that no one strain of the virus is more deadly than another. They also say it does not appear the strains will grow more lethal as they evolve.

    “The virus mutates so slowly that the virus strains are fundamentally very similar to each other,” said Charles Chiu, a professor of medicine and infectious disease at the University of California, San Francisco School of Medicine.
     
  14. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,067
    15,372
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    If the New York Times wrote,"The Sun rises in the East." I would be up the next morning with a compass.

    Bob Wilson
     
    hill, bisco and Prodigyplace like this.
  15. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    107,571
    48,862
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    agreed, but they were just covering the story. you can find the data elsewhere
     
  16. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    8,972
    3,501
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    WHO daily sitreps look like noisy versions of Gompertz models when countries near their peak infection days.

    I have grown wary of talking about single-day declines. Four days after is less likely to bite you in a unwanted place.

    ==
    It only looks like Sun rises in east. But at least it's consistent.
     
    fuzzy1 likes this.
  17. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    107,571
    48,862
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    how long until the world grows weary of being locked up?
     
  18. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2005
    19,605
    8,036
    54
    Location:
    Montana & Nashville, TN
    Vehicle:
    2004 Prius
    Model:
    IV
    put another way, how long till our wives kill us

    .
     
    Raytheeagle and bisco like this.
  19. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    107,571
    48,862
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    massachusetts 15% positive test rate. that seems pretty low, but i have nothing to compare it to.
     
    #1260 bisco, Mar 31, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2020