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SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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    While many of the mutations found in SARS-CoV-2 are indeed polymorphism without a change in coded amino acids, there are many mutations that have been identified that change amino acid coded thus possible structural changes. For example, in the paper by Phan Genetic diversity and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 - ScienceDirect identified 93 mutations in 86 complete SARS-CoV-2 sequences analyzed. Citing from the paper "Forty-two missense mutations were identified in all the major non-structural and structural proteins, except the envelope protein. Twenty-nine missense mutations were in the ORF1ab polyprotein, eight in the spike surface glycoprotein, one in the matrix protein, and four in the nucleocapsid protein."

    When designing a vaccine, researchers try to use the invariable region of SARS-CoV-2 as an antigen to elicit specific immunological responses. Region of spike glycoprotein is thought to be a good target for this, however, the result of the above-mentioned paper indicates that this region too have undergone a mutation that possibly resulted in conformational changes in this region.

    That being said, the SARS-CoV-2 genome is relatively stable compared to other hypermutable viruses like the influenza virus, making it more likely to succeed developing some form of the vaccine even if it is not 100% effective. After all, we have a very rapid production of annual flu vaccines that are somewhat effective.
     
    #2021 Salamander_King, May 24, 2020
    Last edited: May 24, 2020
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  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    what is the difference between people who don't have symptoms, mild symptoms, stong symptoms, deadly symptoms?
    is it their dna, viral loading, different virus mutations, underlying health, age/immune strength, something else, or all of the above?
     
  3. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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    No definitive answers yet. And I suspect, like any complex disease, there are multiple factors that affect susceptibility and severity of the disease progression and final outcome. But there is a very high interest in looking into the genetic susceptibility of individuals. 23andMe, a company providing DNA testing (not a medical diagnosis but just health information for susceptibility and risk based on genetic makeup of the individual) just opened the study to recruit volunteers who tested positive on the COVID-19 diagnostic test to donate their DNA samples.

    23andMe COVID-19 Study
     
    #2023 Salamander_King, May 25, 2020
    Last edited: May 25, 2020
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  4. kenmce

    kenmce High Voltage Member

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    All of the above. There are three big categories of people who do badly with it - the elderly, people who are already in bad health, and (presumably) persons with compromised immune systems, although they are not making the press. Everyone else has something like a 99% chance of getting it and shrugging it off without assistance.

    For the 1% that gets it bad, there is some thought that a lower initial exposure leads to milder symptoms, although given the speed with which it replicates in the body, this seems odd.

    Mutations are not a big deal yet. However it is new to our kind and may still need to dial in to our exact chemistry. Lethality is not necessarily what it is dialing for so much as the ability to hang around and persist. Ten years from now we'll treat it as just another kind of flu and not worry about it.
     
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  5. kenmce

    kenmce High Voltage Member

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    Over the long run, given the ease and invisibility with which it spreads, I would expect the cases per million to be a little under a million per million. We have been talking about herd immunity, but those immune herders can still carry it around.
     
    #2025 kenmce, May 25, 2020
    Last edited: May 25, 2020
  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    cdc revises projected death rate downwards, closer to the widely criticized stanford study
     
  7. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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  8. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    we can move this discussion to the other thread if it becomes political, but i would hope that there is at least one scientist at the cdc with enough backbone to speak up.

    my own feeling is that some feel it's more important to keep fighting the good fight, even if it means some amount of compromise.
     
  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    As a study to compare and contrast, I live in Madison County: Two Alabama cities, two very different outbreaks - al.com

    On Feb. 27, Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle held a press conference on the novel coronavirus. At the time, COVID-19 wasn’t a household term, so he spelled it for those who hadn’t heard of the disease. Alabama had no confirmed cases at that point; only 60 cases had been found in the United States.
    . . .
    Huntsville and Mobile, at opposite ends of the state, are the Alabama’s second and third biggest population centers. Their metro areas each contain more than 400,000 people.
    . . .
    But after nearly three months in shutdown, their coronavirus outcomes are wildly different: Madison has about 281 confirmed cases and four deaths, while similarly-sized Mobile has 1,773 confirmed cases and leads the state in deaths, at 104.
    . . .

    Bob Wilson
     
  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Given the technical challenges and directed political decisions, I'm not terribly interested in being an early adopter of the first, USA released, SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Perhaps after March-April 2021 but nothing before.

    Bob Wilson
     
  11. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    seems like most of the flu like viruses can morph every season. Like the flu, if it changes, last year's vaccine doesn't cut the mustard. That's one of the big complaints about flu vaccine .... little testing gets done by the time they roll it out. Many other drugs? They might have to be tested for years.
    .
     
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  12. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    based on the sentiment of the country, you'll probably only get a 50% take rate. but those sentiments may change by the time a vaccine is available
     
  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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  14. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    it's not a given, but i like the scientific communities optimism
     
  15. ILuvMyPriusToo

    ILuvMyPriusToo Senior Member

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    Reduces the number of glass vials required in half!
     
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  16. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Someone seems to be aware of glass (silica) shortages in current medical supply chains.
     
  17. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    huh, glass factory outbreaks?
     
  18. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    The collection of beach sand was matched to a particular level of glass production and was not eacy to accelerate in short term. Beaches are not 'empty', glass factories are not understaffed (apparently). It was simply a supply chain with limited agility.

    Was covered in less-strident media areas a month or two ago.

    I think factories for molded glass products are quite automated and not large employers. Nor do they put many lungs 'within spittin' distance'.
     
  19. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    I had understood that much of that glass vial supply chain, like many others, is, um, er, "not domestic". And the same for the rubber stopper seals on top. Getting first-in-line priority for the products may be a bit difficult.

    Somewhere in news snippets I saw some proposal to skip the glass bottles and load vaccines directly into the single use plastic syringes before distribution. Though not sure if that noticeably improves the overall supply chain issue.
     
  20. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I think of Corning (company first in this context. Searched that and link sent me to their Chinese website. So I conclude they have factories around here. Anyway, when it opens back up, Corning museum in upstate NY is worth a visit.

    Rubber should be silicone (methoxy polymer) above. You'll be so glad to know :) I spent long hours punching large-gauge needles through those things and they really stand up to abuse. They are probably ultimately made from sand as well.

    Storing vaccine long term in syringes (with buna-N rubber seals) may not have been investigated. There really are a boatload of things to consider, as we are now 6 months to 1 year ahead of launching a billion or more new vaccination kits.
     
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