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SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

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  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    A page or few earlier here, @bwilson4web suggested that new cases in US had reversed from decline to increase. I now agree with that. Official distancing guidelines have been set aside in many states, overpowered by economic-loss concerns. Testing is increasing greatly, but serious contact tracing remains rare.

    Countries that have done well did all those and early. Large countries that have done less than US might accede more lungs to this virus later, but they are still catching up.

    Brazil has earliest chance and might drag that continent along. South Africa might drag that continent along later. Overall it seems too early to suppose where COVID-19 will have its greatest success. I earlier expressed here my view that China (having lost Wuhan/Hubei but sparing other provinces) would guide global responses, and this would be a small thing elsewhere. I was almost entirely wrong about that.

    Now, globally, there are less than 10 million cases and less than half million deaths. Both could double and perhaps it will look like a victory if those don't triple.

    But US concerns are more local. @ILuvMyPriusToo above posed narrow criteria for (infection-control) success and found 3 states. By those criteria I find CO, IA, IL, IN, MD, NJ, NY and PA. Relax criteria a bit and add OH and SD, and I'm not tracking all states and territories. So control with costly efforts is clearly possible.

    In my view, US freedoms to 'locally decide' and to freely travel within are in this case weaknesses and can allow 200 thousand dead. With 300 thousand possibly within reach. No one wants that, but how much to they not want it?

    How much to you not want it?
     
    #2181 tochatihu, Jun 20, 2020
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  2. KennyGS

    KennyGS Senior Member

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    Governor Wolfe has announced the rest of PA will go to green phase next Friday, which essentially reopens the state - with (of course) the recommended CDC guidelines still in use. Although a part of me wants to join the likely tidal wave that will be piling into "places" that have been off limits for over three months, I will defer to better judgement. My plan is to wait at least another month to see how things go, then decide what I want to do. Many of the businesses have started sending out messages explaining their plans to address the new precautions in life as they reopen. To that end, I will wait and see whether this causes a spike in new cases, or not.

    Meanwhile, I have a Monday morning "Teams" meeting, which will probably be to discuss plans on how they will schedule office employee returns after June 26th.
     
    #2182 KennyGS, Jun 20, 2020
  3. ILuvMyPriusToo

    ILuvMyPriusToo Senior Member

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    NY Governor Cuomo, arguably the most effective leader in the fight against the virus, said two days ago that he is now considering mandatory quarantines for travelers coming into NY from hot states like FL. He says this is a "full 180" from day 1.

    New York Gov. Cuomo mulls quarantine Florida travelers as cases rise

    Such a contrast to other "leaders", particularly the big one who insists the virus still is just going to disappear. Profit, greed and more profit as deaths pile up.
     
    #2183 ILuvMyPriusToo, Jun 20, 2020
  4. SFO

    SFO Senior Member

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    #2184 SFO, Jun 20, 2020
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  5. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    "(95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.0, 57.9)"

    That would be on the small end of the few estimates I've seen. A higher end estimate was ~300X.
     
    #2185 fuzzy1, Jun 20, 2020
  6. SFO

    SFO Senior Member

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    Link?
     
    #2186 SFO, Jun 20, 2020
  7. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    From April --

    New study finds few cases of outdoor transmission of coronavirus in China | TheHill

    "New: Study of 318 outbreaks in China found transmission occurred out-of-doors in only one, involving just 2 cases. Most occurred in home or public transport. Raises key chance for states to move services outdoors (religious, gym classes, restaurants, etc)."

    Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2 | medRxiv

    "Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous. Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases."
     
    #2187 fuzzy1, Jun 20, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2020
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  8. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    with average age of cases declining, i wonder if percentage of hospitalizations and deaths will also decline
     
    #2188 bisco, Jun 20, 2020
  9. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    In most (or all?) places I'm watching there has been small (probably statistically significant) decreases in case fatality rate.
    Time series reporting of new cases and fatalities are noisy, usually with 7-day cycles, which makes statistical significance harder to achieve.
    To attribute this to younger (better surviving) folks being infected is probably premature. But it's on the table and if age distributions are somewhere available, it should be examined.
     
    #2189 tochatihu, Jun 20, 2020
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  10. t_newt

    t_newt Active Member

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    I've heard the theory (medcram on Youtube) that one reason deaths may be dropping a bit even though cases have not is simply because doctors are getting better at knowing how to treat patients. This includes knowing what the disease can do, what to test for, and when to start certain treatments (such as testing for blood clotting and then starting anticoagulants, something they didn't even realize was an issue before).
     
    #2190 t_newt, Jun 21, 2020
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  11. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    #2191 ETC(SS), Jun 21, 2020
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  12. Prodigyplace

    Prodigyplace Senior Member

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    I am busy today but I read an interesting story from Israel talking about the various chronic conditions suffered by the virus survivors.
     
    #2192 Prodigyplace, Jun 21, 2020
  13. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i have read a few of those as well. long term, who knows? a lot of symptoms can be caused by psychological problems as well.
     
    #2193 bisco, Jun 21, 2020
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  14. SFO

    SFO Senior Member

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    [​IMG]
     
    #2194 SFO, Jun 21, 2020
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  15. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    #2195 iplug, Jun 21, 2020
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  16. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Reviewing national, state, county, and on the ground trends at my hospital there seem to be 3 main things happening that are currently working for us despite physical distancing overall worsening.

    1) The elderly and otherwise vulnerable are doing a relatively much better job of sheltering in place. All of such patients I have admitted to the hospital in recent weeks endorse sheltering in place and none of them have tested +COVID-19. Many of our symptomatic teens to 40s outpatients are testing positive and not practicing appropriate physical distancing, but only with typical URI symptoms so don't need hospitalization. Measured infections are surging in our county for the last few weeks but hospitalization rates and deaths are markedly down.

    2) We are finally able to test just about everyone we want to, so we are no longer capturing only the previously ~10%? of those infected; when we did, we were only testing the most ill persons so had a skewed perception of actual mortality rates.

    3) Summer conditions are always very helpful to suppressing viral infection transmission; fewer folks congregate indoors where distancing is less on average and virus survivability outside the body is far greater; during the summer months, bright/hot days rapidly inactivate the virus.

    This would explain why largely (detected) cases are rising, why the age distribution of those infected is getting lower, and why the dynamic fatality rate (as measured) is falling.

    Now when we get back into early winter later this year and don't yet have mass vaccination (we don't anticipate mass vaccination available quite that soon), but were we to continue "phase 3" behavior, it seems things will heat up with hospitalizations and deaths.
     
    #2196 iplug, Jun 21, 2020
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  17. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i'm hoping the new normal wil include love of neighbor (y)
     
    #2197 bisco, Jun 21, 2020
  18. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    mrs b said she heard a professor from northeastern on the radio say in an interview that his theory is that florida is going through what we went through in the winter, everyone inside because of the weather.

    i don't buy it. millions of floridians are outside. not the case here in winter.
     
    #2198 bisco, Jun 21, 2020
  19. Prodigyplace

    Prodigyplace Senior Member

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    Something I have not heard of else. I understand the medical people here almost never test for COVID. They assume if you have the symptoms you have the virus and testing would not change their recommended treatment. This is in south central Virginia.
     
    #2199 Prodigyplace, Jun 21, 2020
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  20. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    sad if true. everyone who shows up at a hospital here with symptoms gets a test. there are so many diseases that present with a variety of these symptoms, and different treatments, naturally. what a medical disaster that could be.
     
    #2200 bisco, Jun 21, 2020
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