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How much more are you willing to pay for a Plugin?

Discussion in 'Gen 2 Prius Main Forum' started by jimmyhua, Oct 12, 2006.

?
  1. $3K more

    50.0%
  2. $6K more

    50.0%
  3. $9K more

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. $15K+ more

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. jimmyhua

    jimmyhua New Member

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    I was thinking about the current state of the technology of the Prius hybrid, and it seems to me that the battery is still the biggest limiting factor.

    If the whole HV battery were to die tommorrow, it would cost me something like $6000 to replace.

    If I remember correctly, some people have driven their Prius' without gas and was able to get around 2 miles out of the battery.

    So if we wanted a plugin hybrid that can get 10 miles without recharging, we need 5x more battery capacity.

    One could simply do this by putting 5x the batteries in the trunk.

    Using the same prius batteries, it would cost $24,000 more!!! Yikes!!

    That would mean, the car, originally selling for $21,0000 for the base model will now be selling for $45,000 USD!

    I have another stupid question. I keep hearing that hydrogen fuel cell cars are the future. To my knowledge hydrogen fuel cells are just a high-tech battery. But can fuel cells be recharged by regenerative braking? If not, I think batteries are better.

    Jimmy
     
  2. Tideland Prius

    Tideland Prius Moderator of the North
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    Err.. the last time I checked, it's US$2,150 for the battery.

    I heard fuel cells would be ready in 2003 back in 1998 so I wouldn't hold your breath.
     
  3. dragonfly

    dragonfly New Member

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    You can convert your Prius to a PHEV now for $12,500, from Hymotion. I'm waiting for my warranty to run out in 3 years, and the price to come down a bit.
     
  4. Tideland Prius

    Tideland Prius Moderator of the North
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    8 years you mean.
     
  5. dragonfly

    dragonfly New Member

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    No, 3. I didn't get the extended warranty, for the reason that I plan to convert to PHEV in 3 years when the as-bought warranty runs out.
     
  6. Jonnycat26

    Jonnycat26 New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Dragonfly @ Oct 12 2006, 09:37 PM) [snapback]332069[/snapback]</div>
    The hybrid powertrain is covered for 5/100 I believe, and the exhaust system is 8/150 (as a PZEV). You'll void those by going PHEV.
     
  7. dragonfly

    dragonfly New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jonnycat26 @ Oct 12 2006, 08:39 PM) [snapback]332071[/snapback]</div>
    Oh... I only knew about the 3 year warranty, but that the battery was warranteed for 10 years (which I was willing to give up). That's how my salesman explained it, since I asked specifically since I knew this is what I wanted to do. Guess I'll have to investigate further. Thanks for letting me know! (Some salesman, huh?)
     
  8. chogan

    chogan New Member

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    The Canadian newspaper article on the Hymotion Prius PHEV conversion, posted here by Tideland Prius, had a lot of interesting facts and I thought was well worth 2 minutes to get oriented PHEV conversions.


    http://priuschat.com/index.php?showtopic=2...amp;hl=veridian

    They cite:

    System retrofit cost: $14,500 (presumably that's $Canadian)
    Installation time: 2 hours
    Battery: A123 lithium-ion, 5 kilowatt
    Battery life: 6 years, 3,500 charge/discharge cycles (Though it seems to me that might be closer to 10 years at 1 cycle per day.)
    Battery replacement cost: $4,000 (again, presumable $Canadian).

    Probably the most interesting thing is at the tail end of the article: they say they're going to be selling these for $6500 next year. At current exchange rates that'd be $5700 $US.

    Every time I see an PHEV article I re-estimate what it'd be worth to me. Putting the warranty issue, that projected $5700 doesn't strike me as too bad a price, at least for me. Because almost all of (my wife's) driving is short low-speed trips, if the PHEV battery pack would in fact last 10 years/120K miles, at $2.50 a gallon average, assuming it would displace 70% of current ICE use, netting out the cost of the electricity, the fuel cost savings would be about $3300 for me. But my contention is that a PHEV is going to make the car last a lot longer (it will certainly make the ICE last a lot longer) due to vastly reduced ICE runtimes. Extending the useful life of a $25K car from 10 to 11 years is worth roughly another $2300 in vehicle replacement costs, over the long term.

    What I'm saying is that, for me, at that price, I'd think a PHEV conversion might reduce my total out-of-pocket costs, over the life of the vehicle, given how the car is driven, and given that I hold my cars until they wear out. If the battery only lasts 6 years, then its slightly cash-negative over a ten year timeframe for me, to the tune of a couple thousand dollars, under the assumptions above.

    Still, taking the 6 year battery life as advertised, and assuming I'd get one more year of life out of the car due to PHEV, it looks to me like, for $200 a year or so in additional out-of-pocket costs, I could have the privilege of driving a PHEV 30 Prius. That's not too bad.

    I ought to be willing to pay that for the environmental benefit alone. My understanding is that, given Virginia Power's generation mix, the C02 from the wall-socket-electric miles is about half the C02 from the gas-powered miles. Maybe a bit more. So, for me, the net reduction in C02 emissions would be roughly as much as is contained in 90 gallons of gasoline, per year. That would amount to roughly a 3.5% reduction in my family's total annual C02, near as I have been able to figure it. Ignoring the energy cost to manufacture the battery (for the time being), that would put PHEV 30 at the top of the list of options I have found but not yet implemented for reducing my family's carbon footprint. I mean, do I really have something better to spend that $200 on?

    Plus I'd be the only kid on my block with one.

    So, yeah, there are warranty and service issues. But still, if their projected price is real, I still think that's pretty tempting.
     
  9. dmckinstry

    dmckinstry New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Dragonfly @ Oct 12 2006, 06:37 PM) [snapback]332069[/snapback]</div>
    But the battery warranty is a lot more than 3, unless your putting on more than 30k miles a years.

    I will probably do the conversion when the batteries start to have problems, or the price of Li-Ion drops significantly.

    Dave M.
     
  10. erogla

    erogla New Member

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    ZERO. 0 ..the LAST thing I want is a car I have to plug in !! that will just jack up my electric bill. ..I like the way the Prius charges ITSELF , the way it does now.
     
  11. eagle33199

    eagle33199 Platinum Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(erogla @ Oct 13 2006, 11:27 AM) [snapback]332307[/snapback]</div>
    There are benifits to plugging in. While it's true, your electric bill will increase, the car more than makes up for it. At current electric and gas prices, it costs less, per mile, to run off of energy charged from the grid than it does off of gasoline. Additionally, there's a chance you could be using clean energy, and thus poluting even less. If not, then at least the polution is all centralized, where it may be easier to control it.

    Additionally, the idea of a plug in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) is that it will work just like the Prius does now, with the gas engine, an electric motor, regenerative braking, and batteries. the main difference is that the batteries will be much, much larger, and the electric motor will probably be larger as well. Additionally, you'll have a plug on the car. This means that, if you don't want to plug it in, forget to, or go on a long trip, the car will act exactly like the Prius does now. However, if you choose to plug it in, you can give the car an additional charge that can take you a certain distance (say 30 miles per charge).

    So, lets say that electricity costs 1/3 that of gas. With my daily commute (6 miles each way) and plugging it in, i could, conceivably, only run off battery power the entire commute. sure, my electric bill will be higher, but i won't be stopping at the gas station.
     
  12. Pinto Girl

    Pinto Girl New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Tideland Prius @ Oct 12 2006, 08:18 PM) [snapback]332061[/snapback]</div>
    Yes...and nuclear power plants will make electricity so cheap that it won't even be metered anymore!!
     
  13. Beryl Octet

    Beryl Octet New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(jimmyhua @ Oct 12 2006, 08:18 PM) [snapback]332032[/snapback]</div>
    I was thinking the folks that had built their own plug in versions of the Prius had done it for $5K, and thought there was a company that would do it for around $10K.

    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(erogla @ Oct 13 2006, 12:27 PM) [snapback]332307[/snapback]</div>
    For me, I'd hope that the electicity was cheaper than the gasoline it would burn, or at least somewhat close. Even if it's not totally cost effective (and if we were only going by "cost effectiveness", would we drive a Prius?) then for me there's the possibility the electricity is coming out of a hydro plant, i.e. clean, whereas any gasoline I buy is probably (60% chance I believe) coming from overseas, and putting carbon in the air.
     
  14. chimohio

    chimohio New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Pinto Girl @ Oct 13 2006, 04:35 PM) [snapback]332467[/snapback]</div>
    Too cheap to meter would mean less income for the utility that has one (and then my salary would go down.) It was a great thought at the time but didn't work out.
     
  15. mrbigh

    mrbigh Prius Absolutum Dominium

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Dragonfly @ Oct 12 2006, 09:31 PM) [snapback]332063[/snapback]</div>
    Try to get in the waiting list........ undefined time span. They are ready only for "fleet" customers with the BIG bucks, besides they only sold over a two handfull of conversions in Canada, most of them for promotion purposes. Hymotion just changed plans to use A123 batteries and the price will NOT be in the order of 12K for a finished and installed product. ;)
     
  16. jimmyhua

    jimmyhua New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Tideland Prius @ Oct 13 2006, 11:18 AM) [snapback]332061[/snapback]</div>
    Is that the cost? That is interesting. When I bought the car in June 2006, $6000 US is the price the dealer quoted me for a full HV battery replacement.

    At this point in the game, I think Toyota would be crazy not to sell a useable Plugin Hybrid as soon as the economics are right for it.

    I was watching "Who killed the electric car." And after watching it, it was economics that killed it, pure and simple. The GM EV1 was costing GM something like over 150K each to make. Even if they brought the costs down, would you buy a two seater car that had a 100 mile range for $60,000 US? Remember this car is for the masses, it's not a "hotrod" or other specialty niche car.

    All the things that made the EV1 expensive, doesn't exist in the Prius: 1. High Horsepower electric motor 2. 100 mile range battery.

    All the things that would prevent someone from buying a Prius are gone. (limited range if it was just electric, it's a full sized 4 seater car, and not a 2 seater).

    The Prius design can be incorporated into anything. Hate small sedans? How about a Hybrid SUV?

    Right now I see the Prius as more of a Hybrid Gas electric car. I just can't wait to see it evolve into a hybrid electric gas car. Where, electric mode is the main mode and gas is the backup to extend the range.

    And the theme of the commercial for the next gen hybrid? "You STILL don't have to plug it in!!!!" (But you'll get astounding gas mileage if you do!).



    Jimmy
     
  17. jimmyhua

    jimmyhua New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Beryl Octet @ Oct 14 2006, 06:43 AM) [snapback]332469[/snapback]</div>
    As far as people doing their own plug-in versions. Most used lead-acid batteries to save on money.

    If you used commercial grade NiMhs, i'd probably cost double that, not including labor, etc. And, commercial grade is only good for 1000 cycles or so.

    If you used Li-Po's, you're looking at 4x that price, and 800 cycles or so. But, you'd probably get alot more range too, at 20% less weight.

    If we assume 100% charging efficiency, it would cost about equivalent of 0.30 / gallon. (I'm quoting someone else here, not really sure of the figure myself).

    The stock Prius batteries are custom made NiMhs. What is so special about these batteries is their amazing low internal resistance and high power density. This allows for a very high charge/discharge rate. This feature probably won't be needed as much as higher capacity batteries are stuck into the Prius. However, the batteries are special, and contribute to their longer lifespan.


    Jimmy