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SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Already known is that a small percent of fully vaccinated who get breakthrough COVID infection ultimately get hospitalized, still a small fraction per capita compared to the unvaccinated.

    But vaccinations appear to be performing even better than this - they robustly prevent the worst sort of decompensation - a trip to the ICU on a ventilator which is typically the last step before game over. So far with the dozens of +COVID ICU patients we have been treating in the last few weeks, not a one here has been vaccinated.
     
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  2. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    California has actually been doing VERY well for a big blue state.
    You’re in the mid-30s in state rankings for not killing folks (French Laundry and Speaker haircuts notwithstanding…..)

    Probably demographically driven.
    There are a LOT of Hispanics behind the tinsel curtain, but they collectively seem to be more open to come into contact with state officials.
     
  3. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    California has been doing even better when adding in the variable of population density. Stronger masking policies and distancing in the days before the vaccine helped a lot.

    Considering population density, bested nearly all red states.
     
  4. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    seems disengenuous. Florida being #26 re deaths per million ... versus the top 4 states' deaths per million?
    new york?
    Mass?
    new jersey?
    (not to mention the 20 or so states all still higher deaths per million than Florida)
    In light of the above ... why the damnation on Florida. Unless the thread needs to be in fhop
    shouldn't the focus be on the half dozen states w/ the LOWEST deaths per million? Ask 'em, hey guys, what's your secret.
    .
     
  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    not sure why you call it a lie, we never followed cdc advice due to a certain former leader'.

    if overflowing hospitals can't convince you, i can't help
     
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  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    not recently. the northeast got hit hard early on in nursing homes, before the danger was understood.

    florida now has all the tools, but their guvna is a toolbox.

    businesses and school systems are starting to ignore him
     
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  7. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    The lie was the word..."WHILE"...sometimes expressed as "UNTIL WE"
    ERs are NOT currently overflowing - and the curve WAS flattened.


    What's the end-goal, NOW?
    Zero cases?

    More schools may shut down this year than last due to COVID-19, doctor says

    Schools May 'Shut Down' More This Year Over COVID-19: Ex-CDC Doctor

    WHEN did we, as a society, decide that it was cool to sacrifice kid's future instead of sacrificing FOR our kid's future?
     
  8. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    guess you weren't around in 1918? not sure what sacrifice you're expecting.

    we never flattened the curve, because too many places refused to follow the rules.

    no lie in the advice, but plenty of liars not following it

    people are waiting outside hospitals in florida, notsure where you're getting your info:
    business-health-coronavirus-pandemic-f4ae2436d1bca4f7775f211d4222556e

    the new has already gotten old, but you'll have to take that up with the virus

    14 deaths today in ma, now that is getting old
     
    #4428 bisco, Aug 10, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2021
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  9. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    US has had 3 COVID mortality waves so far, with a 4th appearing in few states so far. Somethings can surely be learned from the whens and wheres, along with the 'hows' from policies, policy adherence, vaccinations, etc.

    Or one step back with hospital data as are available. Or two steps back with screening for new cases. We have been admonished here not to emphasize screening for new cases, but whatever.

    Things can be learned for future diseases. Maybe don't analyze now but wait for hospitals to mostly go back to doing all their other stuff. If one is looking to define a COVID endpoint.

    But first sort through the data. Arguing about what it all means is not the first step.
     
  10. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    So it was—we did get ourselves off the exponential trajectory, the first time, in late March 2020. That took drastic measures. To simply stay off once we were off could have been done with less drastic measures, but instead we went "oh, we're done now" and got back on. Twice.

    And this spring we were both safely off of an exponential trajectory again, and had vaccines available to make it much easier for us to stay that way. But instead:

    https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-07-30/covid-19-cases-are-growing-exponentially-in-dozens-of-states

    Using a control chart to pick out the dates when trajectories become exponential again is an interesting approach.

    "ERs are NOT currently overflowing" depends on where you mean. Harris County, TX has 2000 square feet of new medical tents erected. TX has been transporting patients to where there are beds, including Louisiana and North Dakota, and that article was from August 6th, which under exponential growth conditions is a significant time ago.

    It would be one thing to get things back under control and then let up sensibly, and enjoy better circumstances while remembering not to let them out of control again. But that hasn't been our pattern.
     
  11. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Working off from "sensibly", there were supposed to be motorcycles available at estate sales after 2020 Sturgis rally. Never happened.

    So, sensibly they are giving it another go* in 2021.

    *I wrote "go" because "shot' seemed confusing.
     
  12. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Oh, my lying eyes.

    We have hit new ER census records just this week, therefore no more room in the hallways. Patients in tents in our parking lot. Our ER is not alone.
     
  13. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    sturgis spread covid all over the country last year, this year could be worse.

    provincetown was highly vaccinated, which kept a lot of people out of the hospital
     
  14. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    That is hard to deny and harder to quantify. Depending on where you read, Sturgis surgis 2020 was 700 or 250,000 cases. It is indeed hard to separate wheat from chaff in this matter.

    I spoke of a much narrower matter. There was no flood of dead-guy motorcycles suppressing market prices after. A missed prediction.

    The 2021 delta upgrade may dig deeper into Sturgis demographic.
     
  15. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    There Are Only 8 ICU Beds Available in Arkansas As COVID-19 Surges

    Where kids should be in terms of age and education is an artificial construct. No reason why we couldn't adjust it to allow for the reality of a pandemic.
     
  16. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    This is a multi-year program, not a single course. I also want to see current progress.
    A couple days ago, 36% of all the nation's reported covid deaths occurred in a single state, indicating that something has spun out of control there. Mentioning that is disingenuous?
    Texas partially caught up the next day:
    upload_2021-8-10_19-19-35.png

    ... while Florida chose to not even report:
    upload_2021-8-10_19-21-30.png


    ‘On divert.’ Some Tri-Cities patients being sent hundreds of miles for an open hospital bed
    "One Tri-Cities area patient recently needed to be transferred to a hospital 600 miles away as the latest COVID-19 surge is filling hospitals and overwhelming emergency rooms.

    In another case, Prosser Memorial Hospital had to call 20 hospitals to find one with an intensive care unit bed for a patient who needed more care than that hospital offers.

    A week ago all three Tri-Cities hospitals were so busy that for a time they all asked that any emergency patients be taken to another hospital."

    Emergency doctor says hospitals full, sending patients out of state

    "PROSSER, Wash.-- Hospitals locally and regionally are full, leaving emergency department workers scrambling to find beds."
     
  17. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    It seems not a bad thing that strongly held positions clash here. It would be a bad thing if clashes cannot be resolved towards improved human outcomes.

    In other words, First Act music is dramatic, but the Second Act ought to teach.

    Who knows what the Third Act will bring? Opera metaphor, while conceding that most operas were built on trivial story lines. This one is not trivial.
     
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  18. Merkey

    Merkey Active Member

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    Clever metaphor.
     
  19. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i doubt we'll be improving any outcomes sitting around typing letters into a computer
     
  20. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Harrison county is a statistical outlier that is NOT being mentioned in the news for very obvious reasons.
    I doubt that there are a great many Tucker Carlson-fueled vax-deniers in Harrison county, TX.! :unsure:

    BUT...we'll see.
    Americans have short memories.
    This thread was started almost 550 days ago.....well before the dampanic was very panicky.
    A month BEFORE the now-(in)famous Pelosi-Trump Chinatown spat.
    Nancy Pelosi Visits San Francisco’s Chinatown Amid Coronavirus Concerns – NBC Bay Area
    MONTHS before "pandemic" was uttered out loud.

    There ARE indeed some local hospitals that are straining under the new delta variant CASES and the death numbers are up a bit...and people are STILL doing what those two idiots did over 500 days ago, which is to cherry-pick data from this state versus that state to fish-slap their opponents.
    Meanwhile?
    We're standing into a THIRD school year where some are closed, some are "virtual" (closed) and many are embroiled in petty mask debates, and some parents are trying to decide which half of the family income gets the axe.....or which grandparent gets to be the babysitter.

    "My" particular school (one immediate family teaching, three attending) are still open full time and masking.
    I have a brother behind the tinsel curtain whose children will probably not be going to school for a while.....
    ...again.

    And we're doing this...WHY?