Featured I'm buying a hybrid instead of an EV for my next car — here's why

I see a LOT of EVs of all types (BEV, HEV, PHEV, etc) where I live. We are a bedroom community for Silicon Valley, so there is a lot of disposable income and 30 mile (one way) commutes.

But I have to wonder about the wisdom of the EV range and charging focus as I drive by the chargers filled every evening with cars that are occupied by bored drivers. It seems that with the push to support a charging infrastructure that they are missing the point that building large, heavy cars just so they have big batteries to support long range commutes and yearly vacation trips is not good for the environment.

It's not that I dislike being able to jump in my car and drive 500 miles non stop. It's that if we want to protect the environment (global warming et-al) we should use the most efficient means possible for the travel that we feel compelled to do. There are times that a plane is more efficient and times that a car is. Maybe my next car SHOULD be a bus pass???

 

A survey of early EV owners in California found around a fifth didn't get another EV when they replaced it. That was the headline when the study came out a year or so ago. What it also found is that 10% to 20% of those owners didn't have home charging for a BEV. Maybe even not work charging.

I wonder if that is still the case if public chargers are being filled up.

 

Son traded in his 230+ miles Prius for a used Prius Prime for his 35 miles to and 35 miles from commute. His solar charges it sometimes, home charges it other times. He is pleased. One of 4 hybrids we currently have.

 

When crossing from one technology to another, taking an intermediate step like a PHEV makes sense. There is a steep learning curve jumping to BEV and too few trusted sources. Drive what makes you happy and secure.

I have PHEV experience with a 2014 BMW and 2017 Prius Prime. They taught lessons that allowed me to be comfortable and confident with our BEV … but it isn’t for everyone.

The 40 mile EV range of the 450 is much better than the 25 mile EV range of the 2017 Prius Prime. But you have to choose from what is available that meets your individual requirements.

Bob Wilson

 

Some good discussion here. I agree with the message of the original article, which is that PHEV option is one that should not be overlooked, as it is great option for those with diverse needs, or where a single EV may not be a perfect fit due to travel needs, etc.

Also, it is nice that there are so many choices now on the market that there should be something for everyone no matter where your preferences lie. Personally, I still think Toyota strikes the best balance, particularly given their experience and reliability history with their hybrid drive train. The key is to remember that vehicles like the Prius Prime are not designed to be class leading in any one specific area, but do everything really well; it is a fine balance between efficiency, practicality and cost. For example, the EV range is targeted for the average commute to keep weight down and equipped to be as cost effective for as many customers as possible (i.e. no fast charger is included since it would add considerable cost, and the “fast charger” is located on the left side of the car. ).

The key is to get away from the “must burn zero gasoline” mindset, if you want the most efficient option. There is nothing wrong with burning some gas, as long as it is used effectively and not wasted such as single people driving monstrous ICE vehicles. In fact, the most efficient PHEV usage is when the EV range is just less than your commute or typical drive. Sure, this means burning a tiny bit of gas each day, but you are also using 100% of your battery all the time (well, the usable portion), therefore you are not carrying around a unused paperweight in lots of unused KWh battery capacity, or an ICE which never runs…

 

2 Fuel Sources >1
Some people don't own their own homes
PHEVs = $$ BEVs = $$$
Lingering range anxiety

 

The Prius Prime was the "gateway drug" that pulled me in the direction of a BEV.
I bought a Ioniq5 last week and am keeping our '17 Prius Prime for a second car. I traded a 2021 Chevy Trailblazer for the Ioniq5. I got a little more for the trade-in than I paid last year and paid $500 under MSRP for the Ioniq5.
We weren't driving the Trailblazer much because it seemed so primitive with a 100% gas engine.

 

Bob, can you quantify the exact reasons why "The 40 mile EV range of the 450 is much better than the 25 mile EV range of the 2017 Prius Prime"? That makes little sense when only a few percent of the cars (outside of marathon commuters) are actually driven more than 25 miles in a single day with any regularity.

The down side of using Li-Ion batteries is that they have a large self discharge right after charging. Per Battery University the Li-ion battery discharges 5% in the first 24 hours after charging without being used.

The reason that i bring this up is that the amount of initial self-discharge is based on the total battery capacity. If the Prius Prime's 7 kWh battery looses 350 wH in the first 24 hours (1 and 1/2 miles) the one in the Lexus 450 will burn away almost twice that. The Tesla Model 3 LR will waste around 3750 watt hours each time it's fully charged. This energy has to come from somewhere, and it's as likely as not to come from a fossil fuel source.

So again I ask... what's intrinsically better about a 40 mile EV range for an average driver?

 

When I was working, my round trip, daily work commute was 20 miles leaving only 5 miles of EV range for groceries or other chores. The 72 mile EV, BMW i3-REx, remained my daily driver as it had 52 miles EV for other errands and chores. Our Prius Prime had became $29,000, 'driveway art.'

I am sympathetic to running the ICE engine to keep things lubricated and known to be working. So the BMW i3-REx surprised me one day by running an automated, 60 day, maintenance cycle. In contrast, the Prius Prime was a 'princess and the pea' about triggering ICE operation more frequently than I wanted. Regardless, running the ICE is a personal preference and I was on the road to BEV land.

My 'gold' bought my car which must meet my requirements. I recommend any 'average' driver analyze their requirements and choose what makes most sense. A former Marine, I've already tried 'one size fits all' by the 'lowest bidder.'

Bob Wilson

 

When Tesla started, and said they were going to use off the shelf lap top cells, people had concerns about the battery life because they were familiar with lap tops. The computers make full use of the battery capacity, which can lead to quick progression through the battery's life of charge/discharge cycles.

As we know, EVs and hybrids don't make full use of the battery capacity. The unused buffer means a BEV driven from full to empty has only used a fraction of 1 such cycle of the chemistry's rated life. The shallower the discharge, the smaller that fraction of a cycle. When using the same amount of energy in daily use, the BEV with bigger battery will have that battery last longer than the one in an otherwise identical BEV with smaller pack. Longer battery life means longer life of the car, and all its other components. The environmental costs of using the larger battery need to include the environmental costs of the longer lifespan of the car itself.

NiMH are even worse, and if self-discharge rates are a serious concern, we should use lead-acid.

Battery University is a good information source, but the majority of the articles are for the general qualities of batteries, not specific use cases. The above one on self-discharge is referring to batteries charged to 100%, and then left on a shelf, not in use. Does the steep loss in 24hrs apply to packs that aren't charged to 100%? Does it still happen to a car that is driven as soon as finished charging? The fact that the monthly self-discharge rate of Li-ion in the 60% to 40% SOC range being a fraction of one that is fully charged implies that the percentage rate for the 1d measure will vary with what SOC the charging was stopped at.

Then there is the fact that an EV battery is in use. The parasitic drains of a car will likely overshadow any self discharge. There will be manufacturer differences in the supplied equipment and options, but the core phantom drainers(SKS, monitoring systems) in any car are going to be close in the flat they consume, regardless of battery size. When parked, these drains are on the 12V battery. A Tesla, maybe others, will keep the 12V charged up from the traction pack. Most, like the PP and Leaf, will just let the 12V drain. Even if not to the point of a dead battery, the deeper discharges on the 12V will shorten its life. Leading to more frequent replacement of a lead-acid that is more troublesome to dispose of than Li-ion.

The fast charger shouldn't add much in equipment cost. A DC charger is truly a charger, and not an EVSE. All the car needs is the port, connections to the battery, and the electronics to communicate with the charger. There could be licensing fees for CHAdeMO though.

Short range PHEVs don't need fast DC charging in the US. Gas is cheap compared to everywhere else these cars are sold. It has an engine, use it.

Japan's grid means that having public charging is more important there. The fastest rate for charging a Prius Prime for many homes there is ten hours.

Of course, a bigger battery will also mean higher cost. As will including equipment to maximize EV use, like heat pumps.

 

Earlier I wrote...

The other thing that I've noticed recently is a much wider array of EVs from many more manufacturers. On my street alone I now see hybrids by every major manufacturer from Nissan to PorscheI. I see PHEVs from many manufacturers, again including the all the biggies world wide. And I see BEVs from at least a dozen factories, including Ford, GM, Jaguar, BMW, Volvo, Hyundai/ KIA and more. We seem to have a lot more competition for the consumer dollar than just a few years ago.

This brings me to the point of this post. As I cruised down I-5 in California last Sunday I saw very few car carriers with Teslas on them. This is unusual, since LA is a major market for Tesla and the only way to deliver cars from Fremont to southern California is via I-5. We usually see quite a few Tesla laden car transports on this trip. Hmmm...

Is it possible that the increased competition and the recent Tesla failures to deliver on promises has slowed their sales? I looked at the stock prices, and see the stock is down $400 in the last 4 months. I looked for press releases, but the only thing that's coming up is increased prices for the cars; $51K for the base level model 3 popped up on my feed this morning. There was also an article about the pre-paid options going up in price; $12K for the Full self driving package. Wow.

It looks like by the time I'm ready to buy my next car, I'll have a lot more choices, and Tesla my not survive that long.

 

Your random viewing of Tesla deliveries or not is just that. They have raised prices because of both strong demand and higher costs.
Jut search for Tesla wait times.
Maybe you noticed that most all stocks have been down lately. You know, inflation, fed talk of raising rates, all cars including used are hard to get...oh, and that war thing that wouldn't be a war if Europe wasn't so dependent on oil and gas from Russia.
Imagine if ~20% more of all cars were EV today. Putin would have little leverage.

Mike

 

I see a Tesla every time I go out, and this is far from a wealthy area of California. Tesla wait times might have buyers there moving on to the 'next great thing'.

Model 3 sales dropped last year, but they grew in 2020, when everyone else shrank. The quarterly numbers will be out next month.

 

Requirements analysis:

• Mandatory
  • work round trip distance
  • grocery, prescription, take-out round trip distance
  • charging infrastructure density
  • fast DC charging to nearest cities North, East, South, and West
  • seats per family members
• Optional (rank by cost)
  • Efficiency in kWh / 100 miles
  • 100% SOC, EPA range
  • Driver assistance: (1) dynamic cruise control; (2) lane keeping; (3) integrated navigation, and; (4) automated lane changing.
  • Parking assist: (1) parallel, and; (2) head-in/out
  • Cabin heating and air conditioning: (1) heat pump, or; (2) resistance
  • Remote pre-conditioning
  • L2 kW rate
  • Fast DC charging rate
  • External and internal color
  • Cabin as cargo carrier
  • Tow receiver and trailer lights
  • trade-in vehicle value

There may be others that I might not have considered.

Bob Wilson

 

The difference between your situation and mine is that I see a dozen or more EVs every time I go out. It's not unusual for me to stop at a traffic light where all the cars around me are some sort of EV. The majority of those have been Tesla, up until recently. I'm seeing more of Tesla's competition on the streets.

I also spend about 40 hours a month cruising up and down the length of California, so I'm attuned to what is normal and what's off normal.

 

You need to remember Tesla is a world wide company that can't grow faster than it can build plants and get parts. That is about 50% or more than 1.4 million vehicles this year. Tesla keeps raising the price and their profit margin. Since California is demanding so many more plug-ins than tesla wants to allocate to them, some of that demand is going to other manufacturers plug-ins. That is a good thing. I would hate for the global plug-in market to depend on tesla's growth alone. Tesla market share of the general market is growing as the plug in market grows. Its market share in plug-ins going down in your eye level in a tiny part of the market doesn't really matter. I have been hearing tesla's growth with stop from people looking at trucks in california since 2017, and although some years growth is down, overall the growth rate is huge. Look at US or global sales figures, don't pretend you know when trucks are rolling and that means the market. Tesla grew a great deal last year while the vehicle market as a whole shrank.

I believe in this environment the Rav4 prime and Lexus 450h+ would sell a lot better if Toyota made more than a small quantity of them. I think my gf might have bought a rav4 prime if the dealer didn't insist that she take equipment she didn't want then added a $5000 market adjustment. Hopefully in 2023 production will be higher.

 

The reason you see so many EVs is because of California's mandates and incentives. Models that meet those requirements get shipped there first.

 

I suspect most of this has to do with when Tesla began ramping up Model Y production.
The Model Y has a higher price, thus probably higher margins.
Therefore, in a world with supply constraints (chips/batteries) and a long waiting list for cars what would you do?
Tesla probably chose to make more Model Ys than Model 3s to generate more profit to build their two new factories in Germany and Texas.

Mike

 

Perhaps Tesla is production constrained?

Bob Wilson

 

Tesla Delivered Almost a Million EVs Worldwide in 2021
sales were up 87% last year, which would have been higher if they were not production constrained. They are forecasting 50% growth this year. Some of that depends on the Austin and berlin factories ramping up which means the 4th quarter will be the blow out quarter. They are still production and parts constrained this year.

Toyota is still production constrained on their rav4 prime.