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How many more years will Hybrids hold their value?

Discussion in 'Other Cars' started by bostonbruins8703, Apr 15, 2022.

  1. bostonbruins8703

    bostonbruins8703 Active Member

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    Just a question about Hybrids. How many years do you think Hybrids will hold value and be needed before all the auto manufactures fully transition to EV? It seems like in the States, we’re fast tracking to EVs in the coming few years instead of hybridizing every car first. Personally I feel Hybrids have a place and still have value in today market as they did when the Prius first came out and feel they should still hold value in the coming years before EVs are a mainstay and are affordable to all incomes. What are your thoughts?

    I had a Prius for a couple years; a 2013 Prius V wagon and I loved that car but it was getting up there in miles and the size of that car no longer suited my needs. So I traded it in for a Scion iM; which was a Corolla in hatchback form. Now I’ve got a family, I moved to an area where snow gets significantly deep; 18-22 inches this past winter. And a fresh off a lease 2018 RAV4 Hybrid came onto the Toyota dealer lot as I was looking over a 2019 AWD Prius. I test drove both and I was won with the RAV4 between its size; ground clearance and features.

    But here I am nearly 6 months later and I’m wondering if I made the right decision with my purchase because every where I go; super markets, parks, beaches, libraries, town halls…EV charging stations are popping up and I’m seeing Tesla’s everywhere. But I see way more 4th and 5th Gen Rav4s hybrids to the point I lose count. I’m overall satisfied with my RAV4. DF03E2DE-09E5-406F-99D4-64ED0FBD8CB9.JPG both and I was won with the RAV4 between its size; ground clearance and features.

    But here I am nearly 6 months later and I’m wondering if I made the right decision with my purchase because every where I go; super markets, parks, beaches, libraries, town halls…EV charging stations are popping up and I’m seeing Tesla’s everywhere. But I see way more 4th and 5th Gen Rav4s hybrids to the point I lose count. I’m overall satisfied with my RAV4.
     
  2. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    It will be slow at first, but the gas stations will disappear. At some point it will be a pain in the butt to get gas, you'll be driving further to find it etc. A heck of a lot of affordable electric transportation needs to be built first.

    Personally I think you've got time to wear out a new car before we hit that. But maybe not much more than that...
     
  3. bostonbruins8703

    bostonbruins8703 Active Member

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    I believe you are right. But my question is how much longer before that happens? I do believe it will be a slow transition but ramp up in a few years, by 2025-2028 I think more electrified/hybrid/plug in cars will be on the road more than traditional gas. In Boston at least, they are in the process of phasing out all diesel power school buses to EVs and public transit in Boston has the Train (The T as we call it) is already will be transitioning to electric in the couple years. I know overseas, many cities have hydrogen buses and trains in their fleets. Think its only a matter of time before that happens in the cities in the US. Even now just driving through Boston and even Providence, I see so many hybrid taxi's driving around.
     
  4. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    Many of those who can afford to switch have already done so.

    On the other hand there are many drivers who have never been able to afford a new car of any fuel type.

    So they are waiting for everyone else to get an EV, use it but not wear it out and flip it to them for $10k or so (2022 dollars).

    Ask yourself- when do you think you'll be in your second or third EV? That's roughly when it will be possible to get the last half of gas burners off the road.
     
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  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    while it depends on multiple uncontrollable outside influences, my guess is around 10-15 years.

    yes, we are seeing a lot of change right now, and many promises for the near future, real change is much more difficult than lip service.

    forget hybrids, look at all the low mpg gassers still being purchased
     
  6. bostonbruins8703

    bostonbruins8703 Active Member

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    Good point about those who can afford to do so have already done so. The amount of Hybrids in my area vastly outnumber the amount of EVs and Plug in Hybrids. But I'm not sure if that's due to the availability issue because of the chip shortage or not.

    I know myself and most middle class and lower income people in my area have to work 2 or more jobs just to be able to afford the rent/mortgage and other bills. Even at the hospital I work at, the nurses and doctors drive older vehicles. Very seldom I see brand new cars out in the parking lot unless its some hot shot doctor from Boston who drives a $100,000 sports car, lol.

    For me; I'd say its going to be maybe a 15 years or so if not more before I'm in my 2nd or 3rd EV. I never bought a new car in my life and unless an insanely good deal falls on my lap, I don't ever see myself owning a new car, especially with the depreciation new cars lose when driving off the lot.
     
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  7. bostonbruins8703

    bostonbruins8703 Active Member

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    Oh that still blows my mind how low MPG gassers are still being sold and people still cry and complain how much they spend at the pump. Work trucks and people who have more than 5 kids, I can understand the need of needing a bigger vehicle. But for the majority of Americans, we spend more time alone in our cars commuting to work, to the grocery store than we do having the car full to capacity. Maybe I'm the ignorant one, but I still believe we need to hybridize all cars first to get people use to the idea of what driving an EV is like, even on a small margin. I still get approached and asked a ton of questions about hybrids work, where I plug mine in and so on. And the misconception that Hybrid batteries are not reliable :cautious:
     
  8. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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    By 2035 no more gasser (including hybrid) produced. Give 15 years to purge the last breeds left. So, my guess is by 2050, no more gasser on the road (including hybrid). I will be dead before that happens.
     
  9. bostonbruins8703

    bostonbruins8703 Active Member

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    Kind of a grim outlook, lol. Gas models most definitely will be stopped by 2035 but I doubt Hybrids will be stopped.
     
  10. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    To many buyers, "Can possibly cause an expensive bill" == "unreliable"

    I think quite a few Americans are going to wind up simply priced out of private transportation, and it's going to be pretty interesting to see how cities and regions grapple with not merely expanding, but multiplying their public transportation capacity.
     
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  11. Mendel Leisk

    Mendel Leisk Senior Member

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    I feel like Rip Van Winkle... :unsure:

    Plus: my ad-blocker has gone walkies this morning, so I'm in a total blizzard of pop-ups, everything from the skip-the-dishes to dating services.
     
  12. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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    That's certainly possible in the US, at least in some states. But, didn't CA pass a law to stop gasser car registration by 2035? Was that only on the pure gas model or did it includes hybrid? IIRC, many EU countries also have passed laws to stop the production (importation) of gasser by 2035. Can't remember the new Biden's mandate for the fuel efficiency, something like at least 55mpg by a certain year? Still, I think the most of gasser including hybrid will be gone before the end of my driving days.
     
  13. Mendel Leisk

    Mendel Leisk Senior Member

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    Hybrids are not that far from pure gas cars.
     
  14. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    ^ I'm not old enough to have seen the first gas pumps. I might be young enough to see the last one.
    Mostly because they've had to compete on their sameness + oh look, good gas mileage.

    Toyota's already shown that they've got the chops to scale their hybrid powerplant from small and thrifty up to high performance. They're having a ball selling the high performance variety as RAV4 Prime.

    They could push the other way and offer a minicar with a sleepy small hybrid powertrain and score numbers that beat the pants off any gasser.

    The market hasn't asked for this (in sustained volume) yet.
     
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  15. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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    I agree. It is just a very efficient gas car. So, the Biden's new mandate(?) is 49mpg by 2026 but EPA wants to push the hurdle even higher to 52mpg by 2026.
    https://www.ttnews.com/articles/biden-administration-orders-49-mpg-fuel-economy-standard-2026

    With today's existing technology, this means almost all gasser produced by 2026 will be some type of hybrid. I don't think pure gasser can achieve that efficiency. This makes, even if all new gasser (including hybrid) are banned, the proportion of the hybrid cars remaining on the road to be much higher than today. So, I guess, I may see some hybrid cars on the road well into 2050... if I am still alive. LOL
     
    #15 Salamander_King, Apr 16, 2022
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2022
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  16. bostonbruins8703

    bostonbruins8703 Active Member

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    Its a possibly especially with inflation happening and wages are not going up with inflation. I can't imagine what people will be doing who can't afford it who live in rural areas like out in the midwest. I know for cities at least and even suburbs have an decent public transit but even public transit is starting to increase at a slow rate. Some public transit is going completely digital with paying which alot of the older less tech savy generation are upset about. Was watching the news last night and Fenway Park where the Red Sox play; the food vendors are going digital this season and are doing cards only with no cash option. So many older folk are legit pissed off over it. I can't imagine that same type of people accepting similar change with public transit. I work at a hospital where the majority of the locals are seniors and some of them rely on public transport and we often have to use our own funds to pay for an Uber because they don't have smart phones.

    I could be wrong but I believe I read a few articles of the break down of that bill where its strictly gasoline cars are to be stopped from production. That the bill is enforcing automakers to produce electrified vehicles, which Hybrids do count as being electrified. Since the basics is the hybrid battery can operate at low speeds without the gas engine being on until the battery has been depleted enough for the engine to kick back on. And of course; while the car idles, the car's engine can be off during those time frames. Basically how all hybrids tend to work.

    The look/sameness of anything outside the Prius is a huge selling point for most American's I think. The general conscious is that driving a Prius is dorky and lame and the look is polarizing. But then you have the Corolla, Camry, Avalon, Rav4, Venza, Highlander and soon the Corolla Cross, all normal looking hybrids that scream, hey look at me! Personally I always admired the look of the Prius.

    Toyota has the track record because of the Prius thats proven how reliable the hybrid batteries are. Most people won't do it, but even a simple google search can attest how reliable the hybrid batteries have been; especially in Taxi fleets. The RAV4 Prime is in such high demand, you literally can't find any on the lots without special ordering them in my area. I'm guessing thats why more and more 4th gen Rav4 hybrids and 5th gen Hybrids are popping up everywhere. In my work parking lot alone, on a normal day I'd see at least over a dozen 4th and 5th gen RAV4 hybrids with a handful of Prius (Pri)

    After the sales of the Yaris wasn't justifying Toyota to continue the shipping them to the US. I don't see Toyota ever bringing it back or bringing any car smaller than the Corolla. It comes down to price and size; where you can get a base priced Corolla for around $20,000 or get a used one for $15,000 and not have to give up any comforts of going into a smaller car. Think Toyota knows their customers well and that's why they axed the Yaris. Which is ashamed because they are still many people who appreciate the Yaris for its size and ease to drive. Especially with the broke teens/college kids and elderly people.
     
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  17. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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    Not quite all hybrids today work that way. At least not the ones on the road today. The hybrid system you are talking about is the series-parallel full hybrid system found in the Toyota Synergy system and I believe similar to the hybrid system by Ford? But there are still mild hybrid vehicles that require the engine to be on all the time. I happen to own three of them by Honda and Nissan.
     
    #17 Salamander_King, Apr 16, 2022
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2022
  18. bostonbruins8703

    bostonbruins8703 Active Member

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    I wasn't counting the mild hybrids. Maybe its my ignorance but I don't count mild hybrids to be true hybrids because the gas engine still runs with the assistance from battery. But yes, Ford does pay fees towards Toyota for their hybrid system. The Ford Maverick virtually has an identical set up as a Prius. And Ford has been using Toyota's hybrid system for nearly a decade for their hybridized vehicles. Same goes with Subaru with their plug in hybrid Crosstrek. Which makes sense considering Toyota own's about 20% of Subaru. I'm sure sooner or later, Mazda will be hybridizing their line up soon. They already have a short range EV that's rolling out soon.
     
  19. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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    Yeah, I don't know if there are any car manufacturers still making a mild hybrid. But at the time they were produced, some mild hybrid did have just as good of gas mileage as a full hybrid car. Honda was one of them. My HCH (Honda Civic Hybrid) and son's CRZ both have IMA mild hybrid. It can stop the engine entirely at a full stop to reduce the idling, but it can not drive without an engine on. It still got 42-48mpg on good days, comparable to the Prius of those days either Gen2 or Gen3. One good thing was unlike Toyota's system in which if the traction battery dies, then the car becomes a huge doorstop, the Honda's system would allow the car to run on the engine only when the traction battery dies, albeit at much-reduced fuel efficiency... but still better than most average gas cars. I am not quite sure how the new Honda hybrid system, now found in Accord, CR-V, and Insight works. I think they are now a full hybrid system (I might be wrong on this but that would be a logical progression of IMA), but mpg wise not that much improvement from the IMA system. 2022 Insight Up to 55 city / 49 highway and 2022 Accord Hybrid Up to 48 city / 47 highway.

    Nissan on the other hand made the Pathfinder Hybrid as a full hybrid, but very poorly for its integration for the purpose of fuel efficiency. The EPA rating of Up to 25 city / 28 highway for the PathHy is ~20% increase in the fuel efficiency from gas-only V6 engine siblings which had up to 20 city / 26 highway. Naturally, it did not sell very well, and they discontinued it after only 1 year of production.
     
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  20. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    car share, autonomous vehicles and etc. will be major disruptors. transportation will become less expensive and cleaner.