Featured *BIG UPDATE* The All-New 2027 Toyota Corolla will Showcase NEW Engines and Stunning Design...

I'm not sure what this has to do with the new corolla. I hope it is great and a phev with similar drive train to the prius prime but with a more efficient engine. Yes LFP with a split cooling system in a phev makes a lot of sense. I am glad toyota will soon be making enough batteries to go into phevs so that the price of things like the rav4 prime will drop. The styling leaves me cold on this new corrola, but I am not the target market, and it could remain a big seller.

You probably did not notice yesterdays tesla numbers though not great were much better than expected. They quadrupled revenue between 2019 and 2023 while lowering prices. Sales will likely boom when the less expensive tesla is release 3-5 years from now (they say sooner, but we know they are optimistic). Tesla had the best selling vehicle the model Y in 2023, and was the first non chinese automaker to make high volume cars (model 3 RWD) with LFP. LFP is today's most cost effective way to build batteries when weight is not a great issue. The bigger packs (80kwh+) need a little more help today and who knows what is in the future. With the current federal credits we need battery plants that make lfp in the US, but that isn't for a couple of years.

 

I was replying to battery production investment. Heavy investment in 4680 did not pay off. It took much, much longer to get to market and the flow of demand growth took a turn Tesla had not anticipated. 4680 fell short of goals as well. So despite despite LFP's lower energy-density, cold-temperature challenges, and slower charging, Tesla adopted it anyway. It is still a more robust battery that's far less likely to catch fire and offers many more charging cycles, as well as costing less. That's evidence of premature lock-in... exactly what I have been talking about for years. Toyota's audience favors the traits from LFP, so their effort to deliver a chemistry emulating that is well worth the wait. The fact that Corolla will fill in the gap with new engines is their portfolio balance, recognizing what is still required from battery advancements.

 

Oh john you have been wrong about this stuff for years. 4680 has been harder to get into production so they only can make enough for the cyber truck, not the higher volume model Y. Yes sales of the model Y were higher than expected so switching to the new battery was not a good option. Too early to tell if its a winner or a loser, but no problem to make them with lfp or use a different form factor. Tesla has designs for the model 3/Y for 3 different form factors, they are not locked into any one. Tesla started using LFP in the chinese model 3 long before the 4680.

Toyota has been dragging its feet and is now finally ready to play catch up. I hope they do, but don't take it as a grand strategy to have pushed hydrogen and non plug-ins until the market changed. I hope they have learned much from taking apart the model 3 and Y and produce much better bev and phev platforms in the future.

 

The wait on PHEVs and hybrids are getting way smaller. When I picked up my car at the end of January, they told me people are dropping off waitlists and not taking delivery but so far people are on the list to take what shows up from allocation. And many people use multiple dealerships for deposits which inflates the wait lists as well. Heck my Prius Prime order was pegged at 2 and a half to 3 years but it was about 15 months, at the end of the day. Rates went up, financing is more difficult for some people, priorities shift etc.

A lot of people, like my family, only have 1 primary car that does commute and other things for the family, so a 2 door commuter wouldn't be very effective for us. Or when we do have slightly older kids and need to coordinate more parenting duties with carseats or boosters in the back, a 2 door gets really cramped and difficult to use. So I think the corolla is a perfectly fine small family car. But to your point, between corolla and camry, the prius loses its identity over time as they both become hybrid and possibly even phev by default. Its why I personally think the prius might spin off to be the compact BEV platform sooner than later, since I don't think they can use the name recognition to push their foray into the BEV market in a way that is hopefully much better than the BZ4X has so far. Let the BZ4X take the namesake reputational damage, deal with the stumbles and badge a solid EV with the prius name.

 

BYD makes a 4680 LFP. Li-ion chemistry isn't tied to a cell form factor. Probably doesn't take much to switch a cell production line between the chemistries. Then many EV designs allow for different cell types to weather supply disruptions.

Solid state batteries will likely require all new tooling to make. So even if they arrive tomorrow, they will be expensive for some time. Li-ion production took years to reach where it is today, and so will solid state.