2024 hurricanes

Predictions for n. Atlantic begin now. Klotzbach et al. at Colorado State ring in the season.

Named storms 23 (decadal average 14.4)
Hurricanes 11 (decadal average 7.2)
Major Hurricanes 5 (decadal average 3.2)

Even brieflier, above average. Will post others especially if they differ much. There is a lot of same among these predictions as use of precursor information has converged.

 

NOAA has their say in late May, predicting ranges for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes not unlike earlier Klotzbach/CSU. It is getting some coverage

NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Looking for super duper (hyperbole).

Surface water temperature and heat content in the formation areas are very high. Easing into La Nina implies that wind shear will be low. So, vorticity exiting N Africa will have fertile soil in which to grow (metaphor).

 

First named storm was Alberto, who watered coastal Mexico south of Texas. Second is forming up in Atlantic:

Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits

I am surprised that model tracks are so similar, but intensities are so different. Maybe that is how things usually are during early development?

 

H. Beryl powered up rapidly and is now a major (3+) hurricane. For new viewers some additional links to watch the show:

Windy has weather radar among other choices
Windy: Wind map & weather forecast

Ocean heat content shows good fuel supply along predicted track:
Satellite Ocean Heat Content Suite - North Atlantic - Office of Satellite and Product Operations

CIMSS shows wind shear ahead (but decreasing):
North Atlantic - Deep-Layer Wind Shear - Latest Available - Large Scale

One of our stalwarts seems to be silent on this matter:
Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasts and Guidance | Kerry Emanuel

 

H. Beryl caused heavy damage in Grenada and Grenadines Islands. It is now cat. 5 and crossing Caribbean towards Jamaica. Ocean heat is a plus factor, while wind shear a minus. Models vary in emphasizing those factors, so Jamaica may see cat. 2 to cat. 4. But importantly Beryl is moving fast and Jamaica is on the 'high-wind' side, so expect a lot of shredding there.

Two days after, Yucatan of Mexico gets a weaker hit. But ya got ta know that wind shear does not make wind energy and water haul go away, it just spreads them out.

 

As we await H. Beryl's last landfall, outside-target readers can consider Galveston's $34 billion protection plan:

Galveston’s Texas-Size Plan to Stop the Next Big Storm | Smithsonian

This smallish one may help to improve that plan. In nearer term it will slow the local petroleum industry for a while.

 

Houston is flooded (not at 'Harvey' levels), >2.5 million without electrical service, and a couple of people were unfortunately located under falling trees.

 

Houston still has 1.3 million de electrified. Will be restored by folks with bucket trucks, just like everywhere else. H Beryl was as weak as it could be to avoid demotion to TS Beryl. And yet, Texas power still makes news but not in a good way.

 

Tropical Storm Ernesto will do little to Puerto Rico, or more, with models still differing on 48-hr path. Will not be a game changer as recent H Maria etc. have been. Then on to Bermuda and stronger, where folks must by now know their islands are in the wrong place. No one sees Ernesto coming to US mainland. I suppose biggest N Atl events of 2024 will come later.