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Featured Lithium price collapse, predictable

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, Sep 5, 2024 at 3:18 PM.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Source: Daily Automotive News

    U.S. EV EFFORT SUFFERS SETBACK

    We start out today’s show with a big setback in the U.S. effort to become self-sufficient in securing lithium. We’ve been following the crazy decline of lithium because a big part of it is caused by the drop in EV demand since lithium is a key ingredient in batteries. Prices are down 83% in the last year alone. And one company seems to really be struggling with that decline. U.S.-based Piedmont Lithium laid off a third of its workforce earlier this year, last month it canceled a planned project in Tennessee and now it’s pulling an application for a government loan. The company says it’s making the move partly because of high costs associated with the loan process and hopes to refile the application at some point in the future. But Piedmont only has one source of revenue as a minority investor in a Canadian lithium mine. It’s also a shareholder in a mining project in Ghana, but it was going to use that to supply its Tennessee site, so now it’s trying to sell off its share of the lithium. And the company has plans to build a mine in North Carolina, which it recently said it would expand to include two refineries. But the loan it just pulled out of was supposed to help fund the site and any expansion there requires a zoning permit, which won’t happen until next year at the earliest. The U.S. wants to be a source for more of the materials needed to make electric cars, but the EV slowdown could put its self sufficiency in jeopardy.    ​

    When Tesla became on of the most valuable, public companies, even the MBA who were destroying automotive companies noticed. So they made great plans to make substantial numbers of crappy EVs. Then high interest rates and a soft EV market led to them canceling battery contracts after they bid them up too much. Now they realized "Opps!" and canceled their earlier battery orders for over priced, under performing EVs.

    We're entering a more stable EV market with those who offer great products for a reasonable price will compete with the 3-10x more expensive to operate ICE cars. I'll never morn the late and lazy who made over priced, crappy EVs. It is how MBAs 'follow the leader instead of being the leader. For example, the Chevy Equinox EV that preliminary 'Press Car' metrics sound a lot less bad than their previous EVs.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #1 bwilson4web, Sep 5, 2024 at 3:18 PM
  2. John321

    John321 Senior Member

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    #2 John321, Sep 5, 2024 at 4:03 PM
  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    #3 bwilson4web, Sep 5, 2024 at 4:21 PM
  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i prefer sales quantity to percentage. tesla is still better than 50% of sales, and while i don't expect that to continue, it's actually a good thing.
    people want choice, and look at all those companies who would never have built an a bev if it weren't for elon musk.
    sales have stabilized temporarily, but they will continue to rise and fall as automotive sales have done historically
     
    #4 bisco, Sep 5, 2024 at 8:41 PM
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  5. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    On another front, gas prices seem to have dropped. Paid less than $3 today for the first time in a long time. Why?
     
    #5 mikefocke, Sep 5, 2024 at 8:49 PM
  6. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Did the supply chain speculators just roll back their irrational exuberance?

    upload_2024-9-5_18-2-43.png
     
    #6 fuzzy1, Sep 5, 2024 at 9:03 PM
  7. rjparker

    rjparker Tu Humilde Sirviente

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    Gas prices always drop after summer vacations dry up. The refineries have not gone into their turnarounds which enable maintenance, upgrades and a shift to heating oils but require shutdowns.
     
    #7 rjparker, Sep 5, 2024 at 9:28 PM
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2024 at 9:48 PM
  8. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    The shift to winter blend is also starting. It is a cheaper mix.
     
    #8 Trollbait, Sep 5, 2024 at 10:39 PM
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  9. DavidA

    DavidA Prius owner since July 2009

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    Just checked the Rare Earth ETF (PICK) I've been tracking, but don't own. Oh my! Been falling since May. Lithium might have played a role?
     
    #9 DavidA, Sep 5, 2024 at 11:57 PM
  10. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    From a chemistry perspective, lithium is not a "Rare Earth".

    Though looking up PICK, I'm not seeing mention of Rare Earths, just "diversified metals, aluminum, steel, and precious metals and minerals ... (excluding gold and silver)."
     
    #10 fuzzy1, Sep 6, 2024 at 12:49 AM
  11. John321

    John321 Senior Member

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    #11 John321, Sep 6, 2024 at 5:28 AM
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2024 at 5:41 AM
  12. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    EVs use rare earth minerals in the motor magnets.
    If lithium prices change cause of the EV market, rare earths can follow.

    Don't need to be a consumer of batteries to consume lithium. Glass and ceramics were the big user of it before, and still is.
     
    #12 Trollbait, Sep 6, 2024 at 9:36 AM
  13. BiomedO1

    BiomedO1 Senior Member

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    We also use a lot of rare earth elements in our high end sophisticated electronics. We don't want to rely on potential enemy countries to supply these elements to use against them.
    Rare earth elements aren't really rare, just highly environmentally destructive to mine and process.
     
    #13 BiomedO1, Sep 6, 2024 at 10:03 AM
  14. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    This is really weird - that lithium prices would collapse - even as some of the largest battery storage areas around the world are being created. Most recently iirc the country of Chile is completing a 1.2 GW storage field. How does one reconcile that.
    .
     
    #14 hill, Sep 6, 2024 at 10:28 AM
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  15. John321

    John321 Senior Member

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    EV sales are collapsing and the demand for Lithium is falling off and expecting to go even lower.

    New technology will hopefully eliminate the need for this mineral in the future.

    After another boom and bust, where next for lithium? | Reuters
    " Lithium boom has turned to lithium bust over the last two years as a wave of new supply overwhelms weaker-than-expected demand for electric vehicle (EV) batteries."
     
    #15 John321, Sep 6, 2024 at 11:07 AM
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2024 at 11:16 AM
  16. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    The phrase 'irrational exuberance' was used earlier. Speculators driving up the price isn't limited to petroleum. Then new mines and expansions planned several years ago are coming online.

    Going forward, Li-ion isn't the only option. Specially when talking stationary storage. Na-ion will become more common, and there are other options that may not work for EVs, but will for other uses.
     
    #16 Trollbait, Sep 6, 2024 at 11:23 AM
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  17. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    There was a peak lithium demand when a lot of MBAs decided EVs were the way to succeed like Tesla. They bid up the price of lithium. But expanding lithium production has a lag for permits, construction, and operation.

    Even though EV sales continue to increase, the new lithium production grew faster. So today, the lithium suppliers try to cover capital costs by discounting lithium prices.

    Much of the world wide market is lithium poor, both EVs and grid power. I expect moderate lithium price increases as the demand more closely matches the cost of production. Easily leading to decades of lithium price and profitability returning.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #17 bwilson4web, Sep 6, 2024 at 12:46 PM
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2024 at 1:18 PM
  18. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Fixed it for you.
     
    #18 fuzzy1, Sep 6, 2024 at 12:54 PM
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  19. John321

    John321 Senior Member

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    It is dishonest to knowingly alter someone words - you and others who like that sort of thing may have promising careers as politicians if you think that sort of thing is okay!
    One of the basic elements of the human condition and communication is to listen and truly understand another's words and their viewpoints even if they are different than your own.
    You seem to have problems doing that.

    I worded it exactly how I meant it.

    Unfortunately like so many threads here on Prius Chat I see where this one is headed and will abandon it.

    Battery Metal Lithium is Dirt Cheap, and Could Have Further to Fall - WSJ
     
    #19 John321, Sep 6, 2024 at 4:00 PM
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2024 at 4:12 PM
  20. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    Gas prices have been dropping around here all summer.
    Very odd, nothing in the news unless they go up.
    We dropped ten cents last week to $2.93, but it was $3.60 or so a few months ago
     
    #20 bisco, Sep 6, 2024 at 4:08 PM
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