SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

We benefit from having 2 posts asserting knowledge different from 2 mortality studies I did link above. We'd benefit more if they said how their different knowledge came about. A 'show your work' thing.

No pressure of course. Wisps and innuendo are fully admissible under this big tent.

 

"how many were young and healthy? do we ignore them?" from @bisco

Not ignored. "Healthy" evades simple generalization. But from

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0


Notice first this is 2021, so first wave only. IFR means '%dying among those found to have it'. The vertical IFR axis is base 10 logarithmic. Doing injustice to details, 1% of those >65 years died and 0.02% those <65 years died. Both % were smaller in subsequent COVID waves, and linking studies of that would illuminate.

==
Here and elsewhere people consult horoscopes, or may do, and I call that their privilege. To make a (first) visit to epidemiological research and find nothing more than astrology there? Sad to say, you missed a lot.

 

If we are (as I hope) actually in the twilight of COVID, we might start work on its obituary. And forward thoughts.

How many died where and when? Several data sources are available and not (I think) wildly disparate.

Against which there are vaccines.

First (ever!) vaccines based on mRNA present 90+% efficacy. Disruptive technology. Inject any mRNA naked and poof it’s gone. Extracellular enzymes are always on the alert against. About a decade before COVID, Big Pharma first explored concealing mRNA within lipids. Then COVID came, Operation Warp $peed came, and mRNA vaccines aimed at this virus’ particular surface bits came. These vaccines are convenient to revise against any other virus’ particular surface bits, if they come to call. It may be unsurprising this disruptive technology is argued against. In this case apparently without scientific support. Workflow for this type of vaccine is particularly amenable to revisions tracking viral changes. Not listing these COVID vaccine varieties here, as they are pretty well known.

Adenovirus vector vaccines. JANSSEN (JNJ-78436735 or Ad26.COV2.S), ASTRAZENECA (AZD-1222 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19), SPUTNIK V (Gam-COVID-Vac) and SPUTNIK LIGHT, CONVIDECIA (Ad5-nCoV). Against COVID their efficacy as a group is in the 70s%. That and name list are from:

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8805485/

I’m not a fan of Adenovirus vector vaccines and have said so here before. Adenovirus are considered harmless, and are used because they are good at replicating in humans. Yhere are good alternatives and I prefer them. Injecting a live capable virus does not appeal. Workflow for this type of vaccine requires lab growing Adenovirus and modifying them, so they are not highly agile.

Protein fragment vaccines are older technology. Grow COVID virus, blast it, purify desired proteins (in this case Spike) and inject those. Novavax NVX-CoV2373 (Covovax) is the only ‘fragment’ vaccine I know for COVID, but there may be others. Efficacy is in the 90s%; best showing from the old school. Hepatitis B, HPV, tetanus, diphtheria and whooping-cough vaccines are also these. Workflow requires lab growing COVID, virus so they are also not highly agile against new variants.

Disabled virus vaccines are really old school. Grow the buggers, blast them, and inject all the bits to stimulate immune-system preparation/wariness. China has Sinovac and Sinopharm and in India, Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin. As a group they show 60s% efficacy but with wide variation.

Those wanting other ref links to read on efficacy could easily find without help from me. I tire.

A more dedicated reporter would long list other disabled virus vaccines, but I offer only those against Influenza. Workflow problems with it are just as in other virus-growing plans.

==
I have had Sinovac vaccine 3 times and never had COVID, That cannot be separated from personal efforts (masking) to avoid inhaling trouble. Better to disregard my N=1.

We hear of a multiply (mRNA) vaccinated person n US supposing multiple COVID infections, and that’s sad. But without reports of Influenza or RSV antibody tests, we don’t know what actually happened. Yet I am happy to have imagination have its sway.

==

After COVID obituary will come our next viral challenge. Bird flu seems to have failed breaking through to humans - great! Supposing no others will follow - not great. Oh you.

mRNA and protein fragments vaccines worked best against COVID, with former having shorter workflows. When the next trouble comes, mostl Rich Countries will surely rise to challenge. Even if it now might appear otherwise, US will as well.

 

Double posts are never intentional. It is a metaphor not analogy. But it is not a metaphor for vaccination, it is a metaphor for therapeutics.

There is room here for an harangue on therapeutics.