Toyota doesn't see plug-in hybrids on the market anytime soon

Masatami also says that Lithium Ion batteries won't do the job of PHEV. That is dissappointing. What does this guy want?

 

Current lithium ion batteries are known to have a limited lifetime of about 3 years regardless of how many charge cycles they are put through. The chemicals break down over time. There have been some promising developments, but they are still years away from mass production

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(narf @ Jan 9 2007, 01:00 PM) [snapback]373109[/snapback]</div>

That's my understanding too, but maybe not. Try www.Altairnano.com and see what they say about the batteries they're putting into the Phoenix Motorcar EV's in California. They claim 10's of 1000's of cycles -- effectively, a better-than-20-year battery life -- due to their proprietary electrode material and chemistry. Is that true, or will they age like other Li-ion batteries? Beats me. If what Altairnano claims is true, they would be a life-of-the-car battery.

EDIT: Oops, make that "they d*mn well better last the life of the car", as Altairnano is charging $75,000 each for the auto battery packs, for the first shipment of 10 -- see the 12/28/06 press release on their site.

At that price -- let's see, I could buy one Altairnano battery pack, or buy three Prii and give two away to friends. Realizing that the price will come down as the volume goes up, that's still a staggering sum. Looking on the bright side, that's enough battery to run an SUV 200 miles. A PHEV pack might only cost you $15K or so.

 

I think what Masatami Takimoto, meant to say (or would like to say, but is prohibited from saying) is that battery Pattents are an obstacle to plug-ins. Chevron loses their pattent on NiMH batteries above the size of the one in the Prius in 2009. Hence, we'll see numerous Auto makers announcing a 2009 launch of a PHEV. (IE: Saturn Vue).

 

$75,000 for 35kWh. That's $2.1k per kWh. If PHEV were to go 40 miles with 16kWh, the pack would cost $34k alone. Mass production should bring the price down a bit but it is still very high considering you can get Prius HV pack for $2k.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(chogan @ Jan 9 2007, 11:07 AM) [snapback]373114[/snapback]</div>

I just checked out their website and although they claim 10 to 15 thousand charge cycles from their batteries, I could only find the vague "enhancing battery calendar life comment regarding the actual lifetime of the battery. Unlimited charge cycles are useless if the battery chemistry only lasts 5 years.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(usbseawolf2000 @ Jan 9 2007, 10:40 AM) [snapback]373138[/snapback]</div>

Doesn't that mean that the Prius HV battery costs MORE per kWh than the theoretical PHEV pack? We're comparing apples and oranges here. For one thing, there is value in a more energy-dense chemistry like li-ion.

Phoenix is promising a price of $45k for their truck that'll come with a huge pack of these batteries. Just buy the truck and take the pack out of it to save all kinds of money.

Talk of battery prices is like talking about the GM Volt. Nobody knows what we'll end up with in production, or what the cost will be. Right now it is all just PR.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(narf @ Jan 9 2007, 05:45 PM) [snapback]373316[/snapback]</div>

Yeah, I can't quite figure out whether these are the solution or not.

On the one hand, they're putting them in cars right now. Seems like if they'll only last a few years, that's an incredibly foolish thing to do.

But the firm that's producing the cars (Phoenix) is a "virtual firm" -- they buy the parts, oursource the assembly work, and sell the vehicles. They have essentially no fixed investment -- their only investment seems to be in the parts inventory. So maybe the strategy is to be shut down by the time the batteries start failing?

Still, Altairnano is a real company with real plant, other profitable lines of business, listed stock, the whole nine yards. So the people at Altairnano would seem to have a lot to lose in this, even if they do not themselves hold the battery warranty.

But Altairnano's stock price has gone nowhere since they announced and implemented this deal with Phoenix motorcars to build EVs in California. So for what it's worth the markets haven't treated this as if it's a clear winner -- could be that's the product of intelligent analysis, could be it's that nobody's paid attention yet.

Maybe these are new enough that they can't either technically or legally make a claim of long lifetime. I'd have to guess there are accelerated aging tests for batteries as there are for other products, but I know nothing. Just raising the possibility that the split between behavior (put them in cars) and claims (vague on lifetime) may be because they suspect but can't prove or can't legally assert longer battery life?

In any case, what I'd really like to see is the battery warranty on the Phoenix cars, but I can't figure any way to get my hands on that. For example, of the three firms (my count) with current or proposed commercial Prius PHEV mod available, two offer no warranty on the battery, one offers 2 years. If that the low-end ballpark for battery life, this isn't economically viable.

 

I'm a bit worried about all of this.

GM and Toyota have taken two different paths to sourcing lithium-ion technology.

GM just happened to be in America when A123 came out with its superbattery, in mass production, safe, long life etc and only signed a deal to test them as a result of environmentalist pressure to do something "PHEV". Sheer serendipity.

Toyota on the other hand, has been planning on a switch to LiIon since years ago, and had tasked Panasonic EV (their key partners that developed and produced the RAV4 EV pack and the Prius NiMH packs) to come up with a long-lasting, safe lithium battery pack.

Unfortunately, it seems that Panasonic EV has not been making the progress that other companies have, like Valence, A123 and Altair, and much to Toyota's despair, the battery doesn't seem to be ready yet.

They wanted a japan-sourced battery, which is fair enough for their vertical management ethos, but they didn't count on the US grabbing the nanotech patents so quickly....

Will Panasonic EV catch up and surprise us all? I really would like to see them do it.

 

Don't forget, Toyota also invested more in Fuji Heavy Industry for the Maganese Li-ion.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(etyler88 @ Jan 9 2007, 09:31 AM) [snapback]372973[/snapback]</div>

Naw, I think it's strategy. They state "we're not ready" and the competition gets lulled into believing they can take their time. Then WHAM. Toyota corners the market.

And they lived hapily after :^)

 

well this is disapp... nope...expected considering the source. i have a wait and see attitude.

i truly believe in my LT, plug in hybrids will be the solution and i will buy the first one that can deliver me the golden 30 miles all EV range no matter who puts it out. my family and i have been 100% Toyota for over 25 years and i dont want to change. but as far as hydrogen, etc. that is for my unborn son. i am not waiting for that to come along. i simply dont have that much time left.

i still believe that Toyota, being a japanese company, will be more innovative, more technologically daring, etc. that is how the japanese do tech. their electronic gadgets are 2-3 years ahead of what we have here in the us and their cars are just an extension of their gadget loving persona's.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(chogan @ Jan 9 2007, 11:07 AM) [snapback]373114[/snapback]</div>

This is not true. The cost of 75k was for consultation and other services offered to phoenix, on top of the battery cost. Supposedly the battery cost is about 14k. From what I've read this has been a very common misconception as many have misreported this.

It certainly sounds like Lithium tech is there within the next couple of years but we'll just have to wait and see if all the companies with big claims can live up to their promises. Either way it's disappointing to see what Toyota's reaction is.

 

So, what is the magic of the Tesla? Everybody talks about battery technology not being good enough for PHEV and yet Tesla has remarkable numbers. What is the downside? It is not the initial cost because that will be brought down by mass production, which Tesla promises and Toyota should be capable of.

 

The Tesla's expected lifespan for the batteries is not long enough for mainstreamers.

 

that is a good question. no actual figures from tesla, but other reports say could be as little as 3 years or as much as 7 years but none as much as what would be needed which imm is 15 years MINIMUM. the batteries should last the life of the car so i look at 150,000 for an expected lifespan.

the Prius wuarantee is acceptable and its been proven that most should go well beyond the 100,000 miles which is as it should be.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Tideland Prius @ Jan 27 2007, 09:00 PM) [snapback]381845[/snapback]</div>

I don't believe anybody has officially stated. The expectation, as I understand it, is 3-5 years. The pack management is awesome. But these are not the super "next-gen" Li-ions that we keep hearing about. They're working with what was available when they began their design. And they're managing them as well as possible.