Electric rates in NE going up?

This 12 minute long, technical YouTube video has more details about Quebec and New England power:

Why a Son of the South cares:

If the electricity from Quebec becomes expensive, the USA grids will have to buy from the nearest one and the TVA, purple, is one I use for electrons to augment my solar roof. For example January 2026, I bought 668.8 kWh while generating 509.7 kWh or roughly 509.7 / (509.7 + 668.8) = 43.2 % of my electricity. This means 56.8% of my electric bill is subject to higher costs as TVA sells electrons to the adjacent grid.

I'm lucky to be on the rain size of the Appalachian Mountains and the Mississippi somewhat isolates us from Midwest drought. But woe be to those on the Eastern side of the mountains and adjacent to Quebec.

Bob Wilson

 

This is what Google reports:

Quebec's energy exports to the USA, primarily managed by the provincial utility Hydro-Québec, operate through long-term contracts and spot-market sales, with recent, significant disruption from 10% U.S. tariffs and potential retaliatory surcharges. As of early 2025, the trade landscape is marked by high uncertainty, with major projects like the Champlain Hudson Power Express and New England Clean Energy Connect designed to increase export capacity.
Here is a breakdown of how the system works:

1. Export Mechanisms and Contracts

• Long-Term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs): Hydro-Québec signs long-term contracts with U.S. states and utilities (e.g., Vermont) to supply baseload hydropower. These are legally binding, though currently under review due to tariff threats.
• Spot Market Sales: Surplus electricity is sold into New York (NYISO) and New England (ISO-NE) markets.
• Major Projects: New transmission lines under construction, such as the Champlain Hudson Power Express (to New York City) and the New England Clean Energy Connect, are designed to significantly increase transmission capacity.

2. Pricing and Trade Dynamics

• Market-Based Pricing: Rates for exported electricity are often higher than internal Quebec rates, bringing in revenue that helps stabilize domestic rates.
• Impact of Tariffs (2025): The U.S. imposed a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products in March 2025. This has led to increased costs for smaller U.S. utilities, such as Vermont Electric Cooperative.
• Retaliatory Surcharges: In response to U.S. tariffs, Quebec has considered following Ontario’s lead by imposing a 25% surcharge (tax) on electricity exported to U.S. border states.
• Export Volume: In 2023, Quebec exported a net 12.1 TWh of electricity to the U.S..

3. Recent Disruptions (2025)

• Tariff Impact: The 10% levy on Canadian electricity has created uncertainty and potential for higher energy prices in the U.S. Northeast.
• Export Halt: In early March 2025, reports indicated that Hydro-Québec stopped exporting to the New England wholesale market, although this was initially attributed to weather issues rather than political action.
• Strategic Re-evaluation: Quebec has considered cutting exports entirely to prioritize domestic needs if U.S. tariffs on Quebec energy persist.

4. Key Factors Influencing Rates

• Hydraulic Conditions: Lower precipitation and drought-related declines in reservoir levels can significantly reduce the amount of power available for export.
• Transmission Capacity: Infrastructure, such as the new lines to New York and New England, determines the volume of electricity that can be moved.
• Political Climate: Trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada can lead to tariffs, duties, and retaliatory measures that affect both the price and volume of electricity traded.

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Increased domestic electricity will draw on the only variable energy sources, natural gas and coal. These in turn will impacts electricity and energy costs in the rest of the USA, especially those adjacent to Quebec.

Bob Wilson

 

FYI, I am sympathetic to the risks of wind turbines along migratory routes. Mitigations:

• Blade sweep parallel to the natural bird routes
• Suspension during peak migration periods (dead bird quota?)
• Research on hazard signal for bird avoidance

Bob Wilson

 

If only we could see more than PowerPoint presentations.

I do like what I’ve read about thorium and metal/salt reactors. Removing fission waste products solves so many short and long term problems.

The legacy, pressurized reactors work but seriously too many parts under too much stress at too low temperature. Great technology in 1950s, research should not have stopped!

Bob Wilson

 

You have oil heat?

Bob Wilson

 

Ouch!

Puzzle me thus: are there any home furnace units that also generate electricity?

I once rented the basement shared with the oil heater. Every time it came on, I was reminded how burning just for heat is so dumb.

Bob Wilson