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Is this true?

Discussion in 'Gen 2 Prius Main Forum' started by carleric, Jul 27, 2007.

  1. carleric

    carleric New Member

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    I realize the line between fact and opinion is often which set of statistics someone choose to use, but stuff like this is SO far beyond my knowledge base that I thought I might ask for some sage Prius Chat wisdom. I hope it's not something that's been talked to death already - if so, please forgive me.

    Reactions to this? Warren Brown wrote it in a discussion on the Washington Post website:

    "Those dashboard fuel economy displays are woefully misleading. As for gas-electric hybrids, they are just one answer for better fuel economy, and not the best answer at that. Diesel-electrics and other electric/fuel combinations are substantially more efficient. In fact, if your company wanted to save money, gasoline, and tailpipe emissions, a better investment might have been in Honda's excellent fleet of compressed natural gas Civics. That way, your company would not have the battery disposal problem. Nor would it have the battery obsolescence problem. Your Priuse uses ancient nickel metal-hydride batteries,which soon will be supplanted by more efficient lithium ion and lithium polymer batteries. Glad the nickel metal hydride packs last eight years. After they die, both they and the current generation of gas-electrics will be next to worthless."
     
  2. Tempus

    Tempus Senior Member

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    Warren Loves Diesels and Hates Toyota Hybrids.

    It's just his way.
     
  3. efusco

    efusco Moderator Emeritus
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    Sure, in part it's accurate. But go buy a CNG Civic...good luck. And if you do happen to score one where are you going to top off?

    Nobody, absolutely nobody, claimed that Gas-Electric hybrids are the definative answer to our gas mileage issues. And many of us are interested in a clean-diesel/electric hybrid.

    The NiMH batteries are recycleable and there's no reason to think that the cars will only last 8 years and every reason to think it'll be longer.

    What we have right now is a step toward a gas independent/fossil fuel free society. Pure EVs might be the ultimate destination, but getting there takes some infrastructure, some support from the Big 3, some supression of the powerful oil industry, some time for people to accept them as reliable and superior modes of transportation. Gas Electric Hybrids are a big step in that direction. PHEVs will be the next logical step. Perhaps hydrogen vehicles will be the 3rd step.

    These guys want to write negative articles. So they make up a silly hypothesis that will allow them to construct an article putting hybrids in a negative light so they can support their own negative perspective. The same 'facts' could be used to support hybrids as a great first step toward oil independence and the future of automotives, but then that wouldn't stir people up as much.
     
  4. Danny Hamilton

    Danny Hamilton Active Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(carleric @ Jul 27 2007, 02:36 PM) [snapback]486295[/snapback]</div>
    Talked to death? Probably.

    Is it true? Well there are multiple statements in there. Some of them are true. Some of them are misleading. Some of them are false.

    My reactions?

    1) My calculations find that my MFD fuel economy display is suprisingly accurate.

    2) I agree that gas-electric hybrids are just one answer for better fuel economy.

    3) All options have their own benefits and drawbacks

    4) Who is selling a diesel-electric hybrid in the U.S. right now? or other fuel-electric hybrid?

    5) I prefer the convenience of gasoline fill-up vs. CNG fill-up.

    6) Battery disposal problem? Toyota buys them back for something like $200 each if you ever need to replace them.

    7) Battery obsolescence? First of all, the battery shouldn't need to be replaced for the life of the car. Second, I'm pretty sure that if there is a market for the batteries, they will be available. I wouldn't expect to have difficulty getting one from Toyota any time in the next decade or two.

    8) The NiMH are expected to last a lot more than 8 years. That is the minimum warantee period in the U.S., but it is not the expected lifespan.

    9) Toyota has stated they have a buy-back and recycle program for the battery so it certainly isn;t worthless. As for the usefulness of the car if the battery doesn't last a couple of decades, see comment #7.

    10) I'll give more thought to Lithium Ion and Lithium Polymer when the author can say "which have been supplanted" rather than "which soon will be supplanted". This author hasn't impressed me enough to give his psychic prediction abilities any faith.
     
  5. JSH

    JSH Senior Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(carleric @ Jul 27 2007, 02:36 PM) [snapback]486295[/snapback]</div>
    Lets see:

    Are the dash fuel economy displays misleading? No, mine has been within +/- 1% when compared to manual calculations

    Are Gas-Electric hybrids the only answer for better fuel economy? No

    Are Diesel-Electric Hybrids more fuel Efficient? Yes, but none are available

    Are Electric vehicle more fuel efficent? Yes, but none are available

    Are Honda's CNG Civics lower emission and less expensive to run than gasoline? Yes, and if you are operating a fleet the government will just about pay you to install the fueling systems for them. If you are a private individual the filling system is only available in California.

    Will you have a battery disposal problem with NiMH batteries? No, Toyota will pay you to bring them to your closest dealer.

    If your battery fails can you get a replacement? Yes, it will cost you $4500 including labor today. Manufacturers are required by law to stock replacement parts for 15 years after the last production of a product. So batteries will be available. They may become very expensive, but they will be available.

    If your battery dies will your Prius be worthless? No, it will still operate at reduced performance.

    It sounds to me like Warren Brown should do a little research before writing, he comes off as a raving lunatic. "Other electric / fuel combinations are more efficient" Really? , and what combinations might these be Mr. Brown and from what manufacturer can I purchase vehicles that use these "other" combinations that are better?
     
  6. ZA_Andy

    ZA_Andy Member

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    The article argues an entirely false premise; that once the battery technology is out of date, it somehow renders the car worthless. Even if one were to assume that to be true, and the time scale is only 8 years, it provides 8 years of low emission, high efficiency transportation which is considerably better for the pocket and the planet than driving a 20mpg SUV for the same duration of time.

    And that's if the argument is right. In reality, however much the battery technology may be out of date by then and newer technologies quite possibly rendering far higher fuel efficiencies possible, the batteries are hardly likely to fail after 8 years (and given the mandated 10 year warranty in some locales, not even at 10 years). And if the battery DOES fail, replacements will be readily available - likely at significantly reduced cost by that time in comparison to now due to the volume of vehicles for which they will be needed.

    In the meantime, without pressure exerted in the marketplace by the development and sale of fuel efficient vehicles of any and every kind, the US car manufacturers in 8 or 10 years time will still be producing a predominance of highly inefficient vehicles and selling them to the public by quoting 30 mpg as 'fuel efficient'. As a step along the road to more responsible transportation, the Prius has served to move the US market further and faster than anything else so far. It's a good catalyst for change.
     
  7. ny biker

    ny biker Member

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    Um yeah, Warren also dislikes bike lanes because he gets confused and thinks they are car lanes. Seriously. The fact that they are narrower than regular car lanes escapes him. Not to mention the pictures of bicycles painted in them.
     
  8. Godiva

    Godiva AmeriKan Citizen

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    My battery is warranteed for 10. Let's say it fails at....15 years. I'm thinking that it can be replaced with whatever technology Toyota is using on the Prius and that the computer can be reprogrammed according to the new battery specs. Of course, it probably won't be my car by then, but whoever bought it used can have it done.

    If I'm not in an EV in 15 years my hope is that I'll at least be in a plug-in.
     
  9. RonH

    RonH Member

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    I'm actually counting on obsolescence and all you guys recycling yours. The studebaker of the 21st century!
     
  10. resoh02

    resoh02 Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(ZA_Andy @ Jul 27 2007, 03:03 PM) [snapback]486310[/snapback]</div>
    Can't you see the GM, Chrysler, Ford sitting at the monthly board meeting wondering why their low mileage cars aren't selling. The continue to jam low mileage cars down the American Public throat. Many people criticize Americans buying foreign cars, build an American car equivalent and I will buy it.
     
  11. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(carleric @ Jul 27 2007, 03:36 PM) [snapback]486295[/snapback]</div>
    It looks like you own a Prius. I think you know the answers already and were just looking for confirmation, which has been provided. Now for the hard question. Why in the world does knocking down hybrids get such incessant airplay? I have had my Prius since 2001 and at the same time I got it, everyone started handing me the latest anti-hybrid or anti-Prius rants printed. They honestly wanted to know why I got such a risky car. At first I thought these negative editorials were bad, but I was wrong. What happened is that anyone really interested started to ask the drivers.....and got a completely different story. A true description that replaced bad opinion with great facts. A whole lot of questions concerned about how much the battery would cost to replace when it died in a year or two. Imagine the shock when I mentioned that I would probably never know since it was covered for 8 years/100000 miles. (It was a Toyota!) PriusChat has gotten big boosts from these negative editorials. I now realize that they are a good thing since at least 50,000 vistors to Prius Chat and other sites have been because of the negative press. Thats a LOT of converts.
     
  12. donee

    donee New Member

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    Hi All,

    What he is doing is a common debating tactic. Really, they teach it in college.

    You take the other guys obvious percieved advantage - battery technology is advancing rapidly, while ICE technology is 100 year old technique that will be difficult to improve in the case of the Prius, and twist it around. The fact that you can count on better batteries in Prius cars in 10 years, is used as penalty for buying a Prius car today he says.

    Well Duh, I still bought a computer 4 years ago. People still bought houses whenever. People still bought 1970's cars, when they could have 2007 cars if they just waited. Hogwash.

    This article is plain old fashion spin, and as such avoid any conclusions he comes up with.
     
  13. kenmce

    kenmce High Voltage Member

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    Marketing has long been a serious business. Now it's becoming a blood sport. If I can stall acceptance of a new and different product for a few years while I continue to sell my old and busted product, I can retire on a full pension, so I win. I haven't seen any attempts to track down the source(s) of all these wild rumors although there clearly is one. It's basically Karl Rove doctrine applied to the automotive industry. I consider this sort of active disinformation bad for the industry, the country, perhaps the world. Personally I consider this sort of thing close to treason, but it's legal and it happens every day. This is of course room for honest criticism and improvement, however this venomous fantasy that gets spewed on the public annoys me. It also make me wonder what else am I being lied to about?
     
  14. wpavalko

    wpavalko New Member

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    The good thing about Warren is that he's a great arguer. If you email him, he'll respond. He loves touting his opinion. I had a few heated exchanges with him.

    The bad thing is that he has "Fox" opinions about almost everything. He hates regulation (especially dealing with car emissions), he dislikes and tries to discredit gasoline hybrids, and touts hydrogen as a fuel source (even though it's more of an energy storage device).

    I suggest emailing him if you disagree. I personally look forward to his retirement and the next Post auto writer.


    http://projects.washingtonpost.com/staff/email/warren+brown/
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...7072601085.html.
     
  15. zqfmbg

    zqfmbg New Member

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    I wonder about the total range of the Civic GX, refueling stations included. The California Natural Gas Vehicle Coalition's website has a directory of stations in California, Nevada, and Arizona, and from it it looks like the furthest north I can go is still in California (Chico's the northernmost refueling station). And heading east, what if I wanted to go to Salt Lake City? I'd run out somewhere in Nevada (the only station listed along I-80 is in Reno, and that's on the western side of the state).

    The Civic GX sounds like a great solution for commuting, but based on what I currently know, I don't think one can go cross-country in it. The Prius? No problem.

    I did think about going Civic GX for my car, but it's about the same price as a Prius sans navigation, and it doesn't have navigation. :) (And then the Prius holds much more.)
     
  16. kenmce

    kenmce High Voltage Member

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    :angry:...woefully misleading. :blink: As for gas-electric hybrids, they are ...not the best answer :eek: . ...battery disposal problem. Your Priuse uses ancient nickel metal-hydride batteries... After they die, both they and the current generation of gas-electrics will be next to worthless.":(


    OK guys, time to 'fess up. Which one of us ran over poor Warrens dog? You know that they don't have a chance when you're in stealth mode... :unsure:
     
  17. resoh02

    resoh02 Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(kenmce @ Jul 28 2007, 06:41 PM) [snapback]486830[/snapback]</div>

    Well the batteries will last 150,000 miles, warranty is 100k, just like the 36k for most cars they last well last past that. In the meantime I will continue to get 50mpg while you go to the gas pump. Your worried about the disposal problem what about the gas guzzling cars the the pollution that they put out. Not sure why people are hostile against the Prius, at least they are doing something with pollution and getting away from foreign oil, who continually hold us hostage.
     
  18. donee

    donee New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(kenmce @ Jul 28 2007, 08:41 PM) [snapback]486830[/snapback]</div>
    Hi Kenmce,

    Liked your other response.

    On the dog thing, they do hear when you pop into stealth, from glide, or glide to regen. Must be the ultrasonic sound coming out of the inverter.
     
  19. diamondlarry

    diamondlarry EPA MPG #'s killer

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    I have to strongly disagree with this statement. My last two fill-ups, the FCD was .1 mpg higher and .03 mpg higher than hand calculation respectively.
     
  20. David Beale

    David Beale Senior Member

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    Is it true?

    Lets see, he's a journalist in the US or Britain.

    NO!

    What was it he said?