Is the HD war over?

I have an HD TV and HD-DVD player in my office. From time-to-time guests wander in with questions about HD. I have a demonstration I've done many times. First we watch a scene from a Mel Gibson movie in HD. I point out that you can read the signs in store windows across the street from where the action is. Next, I play the same scene from a regular DVD. The window signs are not readable. But what happens then is telling. The guests watching the DVD don't really seem to care about reading background signs. They nearly always get caught-up in the action and just want to see what happens next. Video quality be damned, people just what to be entertained by a good story!

Dave

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Godiva @ Sep 23 2007, 08:43 PM) [snapback]516698[/snapback]</div>

Um, so, you don't matter to the industry execs. You're like a non-person. It's going to be the DINKs down the street with all the latest toys that drive the trends (DINK=double-income, no kids).

However, you will be replacing your TV with a digital TV (might be standard-def instead of high-def, but still will be digital). And it might be sooner than you think, since I think it's 2009 is the year for the standard analog (NTSC) broadcasts to end in the U.S. and you'll need either a converter box or a new TV to continue watching anything. IF all goes to plan, that was proposed to happen years ago but kept being delayed because the industry convinced congress it didn't think people would want to switch that soon while HDTV prices were still high. Either that or they didn't want to retool everything, from satellite feeds to head-end upconverters to cameras used by the news crew. One of those two things.

I happened to work for Zenith during the late 90's and they had pinned their hopes on royalties from HDTV, which just didn't happen (along with other management miscues), and they went belly-up, now just a tiny branch of LG (Lucky Goldstar) of S.Korea.

But like you, I'm not into consumerism just for consumerism (my two TV's date from Zenith employee discounts, no HD yet), and I'm happier now that I'm working in the medical industry, since that's something that produces things that actually help people. Speaking of which, I better get back to work....or I'll have to finish up at home again.

[But first, for the Blu-Ray/HD-DVD debate, I'm expecting combo players to become more popular. When I started burning my own videos, there was a lot of debate about DVD-R, DVD+R, DVD-ROM (not to mention R/W standards), and none of them were compatible, and some friends/family members had one style and others had another. Now it doesn't matter, any DVD system will play whatever format, along the various CD formats.]

 

The NPD Group released results from a HDTV owner survey that showed even though 52% of respondents were aware that HD disc players were available, only 11% planned on buying one in the next six months. It turns out that most people are happy with their standard DVD players and unhappy with the price of the HD units (62% waiting for prices to fall). Even though respondents were more aware of HD-DVD than Blu-ray (29% vs. 20%), it's not a glowing outcome for fewer than 1-in-3 owners of HDTV's to not know about these formats by name.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(banjoman @ Sep 24 2007, 02:27 PM) [snapback]517001[/snapback]</div>

That's not a whole lot different from the digital camera. People were satisfied with film until working with digital became really affordable.

When a high-definition format is delivered at a price very close to DVD, then you'll have a winner.

HD-DVD has the greater potential for reaching that magic threshold due to that advantage of the easier and less expensive manufacturing switch from DVD large-scale production.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(nerfer @ Sep 24 2007, 02:24 PM) [snapback]516997[/snapback]</div>

If the dinks only represent 20% of the market owning BluRay or HDTV and the remaining 80% of the market represents people like me that aren't buying into it....then I matter plenty.

I'm not replacing my current DVDs. And I'm not buying any system that won't play them. No matter how cheap it is.

And I'm not the only one that's thinking this way.

(Who cares if you can read the signs in the store windows? I'm watching the action, not the background.)

They brought it on themselves with the format wars. Been there. Not doing that again. They need to resolve it because too many people remember Beta. They didn't learn from history and now they're repeating it.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Godiva @ Sep 24 2007, 09:27 PM) [snapback]517219[/snapback]</div>

It's not the background. It's how the foreground will change. The detail allows directors to shot scenes pulled back further.

Watch some of the specials filmed in high-def intended to be watched in high-def. The difference becomes quite compelling after awhile.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Godiva @ Sep 24 2007, 07:27 PM) [snapback]517219[/snapback]</div>

No you don't. 80/20 rule. That 20% of their customers generates 80% of their profits. You don't matter.

I've worked for a company where we actively went out and "fired" 80% of our customers because they weren't generating the kinds of profits for us that the other 20% were. We told them to go elsewhere, which freed up resources for us to invest in more profitable activities.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Godiva @ Sep 23 2007, 11:17 AM) [snapback]516561[/snapback]</div>

Technology progress is inevitable. You are no longer buying vinyl LP records and cassette tapes, or do you? How about pre-recorded VCR tapes?

I held off on buying an HD TV until the prices came down. I laughed at friends who bought such sets two or three years ago for $3-5,000. However, when I could get a good quality set for $4-600, I took the plunge. The difference between watching my old 25" Sony XBR CRT (now in the bedroom) and my 32" Sharp Aquos HD LCD is as dramatic as the difference between driving a Ford Pinto and a current generation Prius.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(IsrAmeriPrius @ Sep 25 2007, 10:31 AM) [snapback]517402[/snapback]</div>

So are products like the "laser disc", which never made it beyond the niche market.

 

was at Costco the other day. Sony Blu-Ray player: $449. Right next to it was a Toshiba HD-DVD player: $249.

I think I know who won!

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(eagle33199 @ Sep 25 2007, 06:58 AM) [snapback]517371[/snapback]</div>

I disagree with this. What were the first available HD titles? "King Arthur", "The Terminator", "The Fifth Element", "The Perfect Storm", The Matrix". . .hardly what I'd call new titles.

The ability to re-sell the studio's library again in a new format to the same customers that got it before in the old is a major motivator for new technology in both the movie and music businesses.

A movie has five revenue streams to the studio. 1. Theater box office 2. Pay-for-View cable 3. Premium cable (HBO) 4. Regular (free) broadcast TV, and 5. Home video. Home video is responsible for 60% of the total revenue the studio gets for a feature. It's the biggest revenue generator by a long shot. There are cases of movies that bomb at the box office but make profit in home video release. There are also cases where movies never recover production costs until they are re-released years later. (Gone with the Wind, Snow White)

There is an interesting article in today's Wall Street Journal on the HD war. Looks like HD-DVD has won the hardware part and Blu-ray has won the software. Read all about it here:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1190682453...dist_smartbrief

Dave

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(banjoman @ Sep 23 2007, 02:52 AM) [snapback]516479[/snapback]</div>

I agree completely with your post.I almost posted the same viewpoint regarding SACD .
I have a 50" Panasonic plasma 1080i ,and a 1080i Optima projector.
HD cable programing in 1080i looks incredible.
Im not about to spend at least double the price to upgrade to 1080P to get a tiny increment in sharpness.Even with a 8 ft projected image, it looks great already.
I use a $150 Oppo upsampling 1080i DVD player that makes standard DVDs look good as well.
Why do I need a 1080p player and 1080P TV when there are so few titles that I care to see?Whereas standard DVD already has a vast array of
titles.
Its not all about sharpness.Contrast and tone are more important.

 

Who wants to deal with discs anymore? Everything is moving toward on-demand services and home network storage. At best they are both stop-gaps until IP streaming of HD content becomes widely available.

 

I get the feeling I am an atypical consumer -- or at least a type that will not influence the eventual market picture too much, so fwiw..

I buy very few movies, but have a mail order subscription and an HDTV. If Pixar chose one HD format only I would notice, but in general will buy a HD player when they are below $100, and watch HD movies as they become available.

Beyond price, SD has a benefit I appreciate over HD: I can easily copy it for my home library.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(john1701a @ Sep 24 2007, 11:26 PM) [snapback]517267[/snapback]</div>

Wide-screen is kinda important too. Then your action and crowd scenes don't get chopped off on the sides. Of course, this doesn't require a specific resolution or disc format, but it certainly doesn't work on NTSC (current broadcast analog TV). If you're upgrading to wide-screen, might as well get the complete package.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(john1701a @ Sep 25 2007, 03:02 PM) [snapback]517614[/snapback]</div>

Which is why I am still waiting for the dust to settle and prices to drop before buying a high definition DVD player.

 

Finally, a reporter sees it my way: