http://icasualties.org/oif/hnh.aspx For the first time since we began combat in Iraq, the Ramadan spike has failed to materialize. Above is the website that monitors US casualty rates - both due to hostile and non-hostile etiologies. In fact, the fatality rate in Iraq is quickly approaching the "peace-time" death rate in the US military of about 20 a month. Although it is just a few months of data reflecting this change, it seems as though the "surge" is working. Perhaps General Petraeus is right on in his overall strategy - maybe we should send more forces - maybe the Democrats lack of talk of a quick pull-out or redeployment to Okinawa is proof that the good General is also correct in his strategy? God Bless all US Forces serving and in especially those in harms way.
I hope you're right David, but when I look at the graph there seems to be a lot of up and down and each low period is followed by a large spike in casualties. I don't think you can put a lot of faith in a 3 month decline being a permanant trend. The way I see the graph it looks more like persistance of the patter that was established 3 years ago.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(efusco @ Oct 1 2007, 08:29 AM) [snapback]519765[/snapback]</div> Hope you had a nice weekend Evan. You are correct - its only a few months - and it is too early to tell if Petraeus is correct or not. I am hopeful and would like to see him given a fair chance at success. Be well my friend. David
Going into Iraq was a terrible mistake. However, the military has always argued more troops were necessary. Before the invasion General Shinseki told congress and the president that 100s of thousands of troops would be necessary to secure Baghdad. Because this disagreed with Rumsfeld's and Bush's and erudite opinion he was replaced by a general that would acquiesce to dangerously low level of troops. We all know what happened and how the mission was not accomplished. It is not surprising, therefore, that a small increase in troop numbers result in a relatively small decrease in violence in certain areas. They can wait us out indefinitely...
I agree with Evan - I hope you're right and this represents the beginning of a longer trend. However, the graph is a lot of ups and downs with no real pattern. Towards this end, having looked at quite a bit of time-related data for work, i copied the table into excel and came up with a few new graphs: The first is a 3-month moving average, the second a 6-month. I'm afraid i don't have time to work out any other more descriptive graphs (i can think of several i've used in the past that would be excellent here), but these graphs do help show the trending over time. Specifically, these types of graphs help to eliminate sudden and brief spikes and dips in the data. Overall, it does seem to be decreasing somewhat, but keep in mind that it's decreasing from an all time high. I do hope to see the trend continue.
What Ive always suspected is that the surge at this point in time,is just a way to elevate troop levels in preparation for an Iran attack.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(dbermanmd @ Oct 1 2007, 06:52 AM) [snapback]519760[/snapback]</div> BTW Ramada isnt over until Oct 12.Meaning that they are in the middle of Ramadan now.In previous years the spike appears to be after Ramadan spiking in Nov. or last year in Oct. Maybe your statistics are a bit premature.But you probably already know that.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(mojo @ Oct 2 2007, 04:18 AM) [snapback]520184[/snapback]</div> Actually I posted this in hopes that these statistics are an indicator of our success - and hopefully represent a more permanent decrease in US casualties in Iraq. It is impressive given the fact that there are tens of thousands more US troops in country conducting significant more combat operations at the same time our casualty rate has decreased. My prayers are with my troops in harms way.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(dbermanmd @ Oct 2 2007, 06:28 AM) [snapback]520194[/snapback]</div> on another of your posts you say "provide us with greater and more deadly abilities to reach out and neutralize our enemies. " Your prayers are with yourself and the rest of the administrations cronies. u preach death and destruction. but i'll bet you have a pro life bumper sticker..lol..death is death, no matter what. start preaching life which is all the cosmos really knows...u shall be forgiven for you know not what you say
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(dbermanmd @ Oct 2 2007, 03:28 AM) [snapback]520194[/snapback]</div> Did you really just say success? Do you really think there is such a thing as success or overall good that will come of this war?
