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Aptera annual fuel cost vs Prius-Interesting math

Discussion in 'Gen 2 Prius Main Forum' started by F8L, Aug 4, 2008.

  1. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    I was playing around with estimated annual fuel costs between my Prius and the hybrid Aptera.

    The point of this thread is to flesh out my creeping suspicion that to make a solid economic choice on a future gasoline/hybrid car, the car must A. Be extremely cheap. or B. Get over 6x the MPG the Prius currently gets. :eek:

    The cars:

    Prius 2004-2008
    MPG = 50mpg avg.

    Aptera Typ-1h 2009
    MPG = 300mpg avg.
    EV = 60Wh/.6214 miles or .0965kWh/mile

    My math: assuming a $0.10 kWh rate (please correct me where I screw up)

    Prius: $4.00 * 20,000miles / 50mpg = $1,600/yr in fuel

    Aptera: $4.00 * 20,000miles / 300mpg +.10 * 20,000miles * .0965kWh = $459.70/yr ($266.7 gas + $193 electric)

    Annual fuel savings with the Aptera = $1140.30 / 12months = $95.025/mo

    So assuming an average loan rate you would have to obtain an Aptera for roughly less than $5,000 more than you could get for your Prius in a sale to break even correct? IE. if the Aptera was say $30,000 OTD then you would have to get $25,000 for your Prius to break even correct? This is assuming for every $1000 borrowed you add $20 to your monthy car payment AND you own the Prius. The math gets too specific and complicated when dealing with specific loans and payment options so I'm not going to go into that. I just wanted to present the basic math for your inspection and corrections so that I can plan out my next vehicle purchase.

    Sources:

    Google RechargeiT.org (for calculation formulas)

    Aptera Motors - Wikipedia (The Typ-1 is expected to consume 60 Watt-hours/km,[8] making it a low energy vehicle.)
     
  2. jammin012

    jammin012 The man behind The Man

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    I appologize. I'm not understanding what you mean concerning this $5K to break even thing.

    Sounds like you're talking yourself out of getting one because it wouldn't be cost effective, or something.

    I dont' know, it's late, break it down Barney style.
     
  3. PriuStorm

    PriuStorm Senior Member

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    This sounds similar to the arguments and calculations people use against buying a Prius. If you want one, you get one, regardless how the math computes. If you figure an additional cost factor for the inconvenience of not being able to travel with 4-5 adults and/or have storage for anything substantial, your $5,000 suddenly balloons. You can sell yourself either way depending on why you're getting it in the first place.
     
  4. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    I'm sorry, I should have been more clear.

    This thead is directed to those who want to buy a new car simply for fuel savings assuming you already have a Prius that does not NEED replacing. Many people here claim they would purchase a new plug-in Prius if it suddenly became available. Economically that doesn't make much sense because the fuel savings are not enough to justify the purchase. If you wanted to reduce your emissions or you ran a solar array then maybe you could work it out and justify the purchase.

    If you are in need of a new car then this discussion does not need to take place and then I agree with you guys completely. But if you are driving a 2008 Prius with low miles and want to jump on the next cool car that gets 75mpg then the math doesn't add up unless you are disregading the economics of it and just gotta have a car that gets 75mpg. :)

    jammin012, With the Aptera you could potentially save about $95/mo in fuel. This could be applied to a new car payment. Generally speaking I have seen that for every $1000 financed you add roughly $20 to your monthly payment. So if you save $95/mo than you could get a loan for as much as $5000 over what you got in return for your Prius $5000 / $1000 = 5. 5 * $20 = $100 . So if you got the Aptera for the exact same price as you sold the Prius then you would save $95/mo. Since that won't happen you would be required to get within $5000 of the sale price of your Prius to afford an Aptera and break even in the short term. Does that make any sense? I'm not a financial wizard so bear with me. This is way over simplified but I figured the math would bear out my opinion despite minor inaccuracies.
     
  5. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    I think maybe I shouldn't drink beer and try to do math.... :unsure:
     
  6. patsparks

    patsparks An Aussie perspective

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    I did the same calculations on buying a Ferarri and trading my Prius, and there was no break even point on the Ferarri but people keep buying them.
     
  7. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    People smoke meth and sleep with sheep too (not sure if they do it at the same time) too but that doesn't make it a good choice. I guess as long as they are happy and the rationalized in their minds that is was a good idea then that is all that matters.... :p
     
  8. Stefx

    Stefx Member

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    The calculation seems to assume that the Prius/Aptera is a second vehicle.

    If the Prius is your only vehicle and you replace it with an Aptera, you have to add some costs to the occasional car rental for those times when you need more cargo room, etc.

    The calculation did not include insurance costs. It can be expected that the Aptera might be expensive to insure due to the lack of past statistical accident/theft rates (Insurance companies will play on their safe side) and due to the higher purchase cost.

    Anyway, as was said above already, getting an Aptera won't be a financial analysis decision­. If you insist on an objective financial analysis, please include a 5-10 year old Toyota Echo in your calculation and see which one wins.
     
  9. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    I didn't include insurance because this too is too variable. :) I believe the Aptera is supposed to be less to insure since it is categorized as a motorcycle.

    I didn't include old vehicles because people generally would not give up a semi-new Prius and downgrade into a 10yr old car. I did, however, state that purchsing a low priced high MPG car could save money. Again, since the majority of posts I see are based on upgrading to a new vehicle with lots of technology I thought I would post up the basic economics of fuel savings and what it would take to keep payments even in the short term. :)

    I'm broke and cannot afford a new car but when the day comes that I can afford one it is going to have to get better than 100mpg. :)
     
  10. hyo silver

    hyo silver Awaaaaay

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    I think for many people the Aptera is a great choice. But they'll never make up "the car premium" in gas savings over a decent bicycle. ;)

    A bit tongue in cheek, yes, but only to illustrate a point. If you have to have a car, get the highest mileage model you can. If it's minimum environmental impact you're after, I don't think there's a car in the equation. Move closer to work, or work from home.
     
  11. Devil's Advocate

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    Also, the 300 MPG for the Aptera is calculated at about 120 miles driven, in the hybrid version you still get about 50-60 miles electric only. So if you only went 60 mile s a day (average commute even in SoCal) you have a nearly zero gasoline cost. Now you are saving $1600 a year, and that is over the Prius' fuel use!!!

    Even at the low end of the Aptera's fuel economy about 130 MPG (driven over 300+ miles in a single day) you are still over double the Prius mileage!

    Plus the car seems more useful, and cooler, than a Smart or any of the other "affordable" electric cars.
     
  12. pdhenry

    pdhenry It's HEEERE!

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    Purchase price alone doesn't cut it unless you're never going to sell. Cost of ownership should include a calculation of resale value.
     
  13. nerfer

    nerfer A young senior member

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    You're assuming gas costs will be constant for the next 20K miles. That's highly unlikely, given recent trends (over the last 6 years) and projections of supply/demand, I would conservatively expect gas prices to go over $5/gal in 2 years time, and probably over $8/gal in the lifetime of the vehicle (which affects the resale value even if you don't own it that long). Again, this is an issue that was used against buying a Prius, that their resale value would be less than an equivalent car.

    And there's the value of satisfaction of doing something right for the environment, not what is necessarily cheapest. In the long run, and particularly if we add the costs of pollution to the source of origin, those two would be the same thing, but that's not the world we live in.
     
  14. hyo silver

    hyo silver Awaaaaay

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    Ahh, but it IS the world we live in. Environmental costs are all too real, and it's our current economic model that's the fantasy.
     
  15. PriuStorm

    PriuStorm Senior Member

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    Well, if you do decide on the Aptera, I hope you'll host a Show-n-Tell ;)
     
  16. doubleg2005

    doubleg2005 Member

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    and by show-n-tell, they mean "let us all come over and play with your new car"

    or you could take a road trip and visit us in strategic points throughout the country. i bet you could loop the country on 3 tanks or less... :)
     
  17. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    I completely understand and agree with what you guys are saying, although Devil's Advocate lost me with the $1,600 savings since you would still have to pay for electricity unless you outright own your solar array to recharge the batteries. :)

    I'm not trying to argue against getting a super high milage vehicle. I just wanted to show how you would be required to get some pretty high MPG numbers to beat owning a current model Prius. It's a diminishing returns kinda deal. From 15mpg to 50mpg is a huge savings but from 50mpg to 85mpg the savings do not ramp up so quickly. Even at 300mpg it's not as large as one would anticipate. Again, assuming a $4/ga rate. :) At $9/ga the math changes completely and so do all of our lives. LOL

    If I got an Aptera we would be partying at my place with free test drives for everyone! :high5:
     
  18. PriuStorm

    PriuStorm Senior Member

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    Oooh yeah!! Did you put down your deposit?? ;)
     
  19. Devil's Advocate

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    F8L - you're right I just plain left out the electricity cost. But here in NV (where I am considering a solar array, I mean good god could I have more sunlight!) electricity is about $.08 Kw/h. So at 20,000 miles x .0965 Kwh/mile x $.08 Kwh = $154.4 total cost for a years driving if you never drive over 50 miles a day! That's a savings of $1,445.6 a year.

    I'm probably going to get one since I have a trailer that I tow with the Prius for any hauling I need to do, (yard waste, motorcycles, furniture etc.) and don't need something really big for commuting. Plus its freakin cool.

    It will also be really cool to go from Orange County CA (may be working and moving here soon) to Las Vegas NV and back on about 4.125 gallons of gas. (the Prius takes about 12.75)
     
  20. DaveinOlyWA

    DaveinOlyWA 3rd Time was Solariffic!!

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    well my sig reflects the worst case scenario for the savings when driving an EV verses both the Prius which i still have and the Corolla the Zenn replaces which we no longer have (after about 4 months, we never had a situation when the corolla was needed so we got rid of it).

    the straight gas savings comparison is straight forward enough but the 2nd part takes into account what vehicle would have been driven if the Zenn was not around. so its a combination of savings from both the Pri and the Corolla. to do that, we need to look at the use of the Pri and determine how much of that driving would have been done on the corolla (about 75-80%) since before i was the primary driver of the Pri, the mileage i now drive on the Zenn would obviously been on the Pri. when i first got the Zenn, i tracked every mile driven on the Pri to determine if the corolla would have been used previously. i dont do that anymore... now i just think back to how the Pri was used since its the only option for any family trips (probably had all both of us in the corolla maybe 3-4 times max.??)

    so if you look at an average savings of around 6 cents per mile between the Pri and the Zenn, it balloons to around 11 cents per mile if the corolla would have been used.

    so i figure to put about 6,000 miles on the Zenn a year so we are looking at a rough savings of 11 cents*6000 or about $600(just using summer figures to simply)... obviously, that is not going to recoup my $14,500 investment anytime soon...

    but we also have to look at the replacement cost for the corolla, it was on its way to some hefty repair costs... and also the est $150 in general maintenance costs for the Pri.....(Zenn... currently ZERO...probably will stay that way until replace either tires, batteries or brakes...there is pretty much nothing else to maintain...)

    so getting a vehicle with significantly higher mileage is a thing that has to be weighed carefully. financing anything is something i did not have to deal with and i will say with two vehicles, my monthly "fuel" costs run around $100 a month... that includes roughly $15 for electricity to power the Zenn...


    **EDIT**

    oh ya...one other thing to throw in there... in the next probably 2 weeks or so, i will pass the $100 mark for "fuel" costs for my Zenn...chew on that for a while