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GM Missing the Boat on Hybrids

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by tomforst, Mar 14, 2005.

  1. tomforst

    tomforst New Member

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    DUMB LUCK INVESTOR: How Dumb is Detroit?, Peter D. Henig
    Monday March 14, 11:30 am ET



    It's always fun to match fact against fiction – or in the case of GM (GM) and the other Big Three automakers, fact versus fantasy.

    First, some facts: Higher fuel prices are hurting overall sales of SUVs and pickup trucks, sales which account for nearly 80 percent of North America automobile profits at GM and Ford (F). GM's domestic SUV sales declined by 9 percent in February while Ford's sales in the same category dipped by 8 percent. (Interestingly, sales of Toyota's Tundra pickup truck and Nissan's Titan each rose by nearly 50 percent for the month.) Overall, the SUV segment lost 1.2 percent market share during January and February 2005; the pickup truck segment lost 2 percent market share over the same period.

    Companywide, GM's sales were down 12.7 percent across the board for February. Meanwhile, fuel efficient compact cars gained 2.2 percent market shared during those same two months.

    More facts: GM sold a total of 9 million vehicles in 2004, up 4.1 percent from a year earlier while Toyota increased its sales by 10 percent to 7.5 million vehicles, heading to sales of 8 million cars and trucks in 2005. (Even GM's CEO, Rick Wagoner, had to concede that Toyota could overtake GM as the world's largest automobile manufacturer.) Moreover, sales for Toyota's mar! ket leading hybrid, the Prius, are booming. The Prius owns 60 percent of the hybrid market, and Lexus, Toyota's luxury brand, is introducing its first luxury hybrid SUV, the 400h, for which it has already taken 12,000 deposits and has plans to sell 27,000 units annually.

    GM's response? Bob Lutz, Vice-Chairman of General Motors has stated that hybrids, “just don't make business sense.†Here's where fantasy and fiction come into play. GM loves gas-guzzling heavy metal because that's where they make their fattest margins. Fat margins please Wall Street because they imply even flat or declining sales might still yield plump bottom lines. Thus, investors should still, theoretically, be bidding up GM's stock. In fact, it would seem that Toyota, what with its more fuel efficient line-up of thinner margin vehicles, would be no match for fat and happy Detroit. Moreover, if we were to take Lutz at his word, hybrids would be such a dumb business to invest in – they barely make any money at all on those Priuses – Wall Street should actually be penalizing Toyota for placing any emphasis on those markets at all.

    But, as the saying goes, markets never lie. So as GM trades at 6 times trailing earnings to Toyota's 11 times trailing 12-month EPS, and as GM's stock suffers near its 52-week lows at roughly $33 per share, down 30 percent over the last year, either Lutz is crazy or blind or Detroit is deaf or dumb. My hunch is it's as much a strong dose of the former as it is a good helping of the latter.

    Poor GM

    When death is knocking on the door, it's sometimes better not to answer.

    Besides declining sales and loss of market share, GM's got a few other things stacked against it. First, it's got an $86 billion ! pension fund it must manage and that's a big, expensive, time-consumin g proposition. Second, in covering 1.1 million workers, retirees and dependents, GM is the single largest healthcare provider in the nation – and that doesn't come cheap. GM spends more than $5 billion a year on medical bills -- the equivalent of $2000 per car. (Toyota, by the way, spends a minimal amount, if any, on healthcare, as it is offered largely free of charge by the Japanese government.) Last, any of the foreign manufacturers who have become interested in locating here have likely garnered rich tax incentives for years to come – tax savings the Big Three don't enjoy.

    Though the yen has gained mightily against the dollar, making imports expensive and US goods cheap, that dynamic still hasn't played out as strongly as the Big Three would have hoped. Car buyers still want the cars they love to drive; and the cars they love to drive are hardly those made! by Ford or GM these days.

    Financially, though GM still has roughly $23 billion in cash, it is also nearly $3O billion in debt. And its solution? The company says financially things should improve significantly in 2006 and 2007 because that's when a new generation of, yep, large sport utility vehicles and pickup trucks hit the market. Why would GM try and fix what ails it with – well, what ails it? Perhaps it's addicted to large vehicle sales and those fat margins, margins that are supposed to rekindle its bottom line; but won't. Perhaps, it (alone) thinks the price of fuel at the pump is going to come down, or at least flatten sometime soon; they won't. Perhaps it's convinced that the mystery of hybrid fuel efficient vehicles is such a niche market it's ok to sit that one out while market penetration and market share for Toyota just grows and grows and ! grows.

    Or perhaps, as one of the largest companies in the world , it simply believes in its own manifest destiny – and if so, that's dangerous territory within which to tread.

    It's my opinion that the world is passing GM right by. Toyota is proving this as we speak. It may take a year, it may take 10 years, but GM needs a radical makeover (starting with an equally radical change in CEO) in order to execute the turnaround of the century. Will it happen? I doubt it. Wagoner is no Lee Iacocca, the former Chrysler Chairman who turned that company around when it was on the brink of disaster. GM would have to kill its own love affair with large trucks and SUVs, ditch its healthcare responsibilities, and get rid of its heavy debts in order to retool for a coming world where higher fuel prices are here to stay. That's a lot of heavy lifting for a company so in denial it sees hybrids as just a passing fancy. The stock, unfortunately, ap! pears headed nowhere but down.


    Peter D. Henig
    Contributing Writer and Trading Strategist
    Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site
     
  2. V8Cobrakid

    V8Cobrakid Green Handyman

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  3. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    > because that's where they make their fattest margins

    The computer industry used to be like that. But then the bottom fell out. Selling a small number of premium systems became impossible. Profit margins dropped to a tiny fraction of what they had been. The only way to make any money at the point was to dramatically increase both marketshare & volume... which is exactly what the survivors did.

    In other words, this is the beginning of the end. Just like with computers, speed & size are losing the appeal they once had. Other features are gaining attention. And of course, gas is no longer cheap.
     
  4. Opusnugen

    Opusnugen New Member

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    Oh Boy... It's the late 1970's all over again. Just when gas prices were skyrocketing back then ( I remember when gas was a mere $1.30/Gal in California in 1980; and only 85 cents in the Midwest...) Detroit couldn't seem to sell their iron like they used to. A new upstart of an automotive company named Honda were selling the Civic and Accord like hotcakes. My sister picked up her first car (Toyota Corolla) and I favored the Mazda GLC, after I dumped my gas guzzlin' '72 Monte Carlo.. Lutz and company seem to be looking for the sizzle, when they could be focusing on revolutionizing the auto industry.

    Last fall I got to drive the Chevy Hybrid Pickup truck at the GM Autoshow in Motion around the test track. It was OK, but it seems the hybrid part and the battery pack are marketed more for the "power outlets" in the cab and pickup bed, over the miniscule gas savings (OK, it's 2 mpg with the hybrid vs. the regular gas vehicle, but it's a start!)
     
  5. Robert Taylor

    Robert Taylor New Member

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    GM deserves to die. It has spent the money it needed to set aside for its pensioners (where where the unions when that theft was happening?) and it has totally missed this market trend, seeing instead a large vehicle market only for other than legacy power systems, where they could make fleet sales to large buyers where natural gas, hydrogen, etc. could be done.

    The expansion world wide driving up demand for a fixed amount of production was bound to increase fuel costs.

    We are back locally at the top of the last peak in the way of fuel per gallon costs, and headed up some more.
     
  6. DaveinOlyWA

    DaveinOlyWA 3rd Time was Solariffic!!

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    i agree. GM is wasting valuable resources both Earth's and Man's.

    they need to shut the doors and let their talent go somewhere where they can do some good instead of wasting their time designing crap.
     
  7. Bill60546

    Bill60546 Member

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    Sounds like a good time to short GM stock.
     
  8. Jonnycat26

    Jonnycat26 New Member

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    Yeah, screw those 1.1 million workers!

    You people do amaze me sometimes.
     
  9. DaveinOlyWA

    DaveinOlyWA 3rd Time was Solariffic!!

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    sorry but letting them go to a company where they can put their skills to good use is probably just the screwing they need.
     
  10. Jonnycat26

    Jonnycat26 New Member

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    Do you honestly think that if plants start closing down, the 10-25K workers in each plant can find a job in their town? Most of those towns exist to support the plant. What about their families?

    Instead of being infected with massive toyota fanboyitis (or having your collective noses brown with toyota), why don't you just shake your heads and say "gee, I wish GM could get it's act together like Ford over there is doing".

    It isn't so hard.
     
  11. V8Cobrakid

    V8Cobrakid Green Handyman

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    you're right.. it isn't.. but if GM doesn't change.. they are going to have to start closing plants eventualy. They are killing themselves.. sure.. we wish that all companies could be clean and efficient.. but naturaly not everyone does that at first. Sometimes it takes the company falling flat on it's face to wake up and make that change.

    GM as a company doesn't only build cars. They have a lot of sub companies under it's belt.
     
  12. DaveinOlyWA

    DaveinOlyWA 3rd Time was Solariffic!!

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    its my belief that the american labor force is hurting for top level scientists and engineers and they will be absorbed easily.

    keep in mind that no matter how talented the workforce, there will be deadweight and others who are simply in the wrong job for the skills they possess. this will be a good wakeup call for them

    also, the average american worker now changes jobs up to 13 times in their career. its simply their turn
     
  13. Jonnycat26

    Jonnycat26 New Member

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    I never believed that anyone who cared enough to drive a Prius could care so little about their fellow human. You have proven me way, way wrong.
     
  14. KMO

    KMO Senior Member

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    Yeah, well hopefully Dave will be laid off shortly, so he can put his skills to better use.
     
  15. DaveinOlyWA

    DaveinOlyWA 3rd Time was Solariffic!!

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    companies come and go on a daily basis. people dont. your inference that i dont care about people is waay off base.

    change is good, some people just dont understand that. we need it and getting rid of GM sounds like a good way to start.
     
  16. jayman

    jayman Senior Member

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    So we should protect GM from this "unfair" competition?

    If the market was being flooded with Chinese or South Korean cars exactly like the Prius, with Toyota quality, and selling for $11,999, then yeah maybe we would have to help GM et all.

    But this is not the case. It's not too often a car will command every penny of its MSRP and over, and it's not too often a car will shoot to the top of both reliability and desirability scores at CR.

    I'm old enough to remember the first OPEC oil embargo. I suggest you do a bit of research on oil prices 1960-1970. Adjusted for inflation, oil went *down* in price. That really helped the economy, but also set us up for a big fall. Sounds vaguely familiar, doesn't it?

    So the Big Three convinced folks to purchase gas guzzling land yachts and factory hot rods that could rocket from 0 to Instant Death in 6 seconds flat. Two decades later, giant SUV's and crew cab pickup trucks did almost the same. Hmm deja vu.

    When fuel prices skyrocketed and long lines formed, all those "odd" little Asian cars flew off the showroom floor. What was the Big Three response: The Vega, the Pinto, and the Gremlin. Good for a laugh.

    Since the Big Three proved they were completely out of touch with reality, what was the only thing they could do? You got it: Blame the car buying public.

    It's "unpatriotic" to buy that "jap crap" and you're throwing good American folks out of work. Well, that completely backfired. The car buying public also complained loudly about the lousy reliability of Big Three cars.

    So what was the next logical thing the Big Three could do? You got it: Blame their workers! The UAW workers were a bunch of lazy Union bums who were purposely building lousy cars to destroy the Big Three.

    However, Toyota et al had to respond to the "unpatriotic" charge as it was true in that they *were* costing American jobs. Also wages and input costs in Japan were rising, factor in a *long* boat ride and ...

    Toyota started building assembly plants in the good 'ole USA. Also in Canada. And what do you know, those "lazy Union bums" or the UAW were cranking out cars with the same high quality and reliability that folks expected. That was a shock!

    Of course, in foreign markets especially EU and Japan, Toyota has long produced tiny fuel efficient cars. When fuel prices went *down* during the 90's, it would have been economic suicide to market a tiny fuel efficient small car.

    Remember the Chevy Metro / Suzuki Swift? A friend of mine got the basic 3 cylinder stick shift and got *amazing* fuel economy, a bit better than our Prius get. Never had a problem, drove it almost 7 years until it completely rotted out. D*** road salt. He really misses that little car.

    But the average person didn't mind buying a giant SUV or pickup for daily commuting because gas was so cheap. It was a nice dream while it lasted. But now we're repeating history (Again and again and ...) and once again, GM is p****** and moaning about problems it caused itself.

    I've heard a phrase "Lutz is a Klutz" which may be unfair but still paints a bad picture. Unless somebody proposes a law banning the Prius and sending every single one to the crusher (Over my cold dead body) to "help" GM, what do you propose?

    GM made the ultimate Free Market blunder: they didn't listen to the customer. Lutz and his cronies f***** up. The customer has gotten over their brief love affair with giant SUV's and now want something with many times the fuel economy and far safer to boot.

    Either way, the average assembly worker will pay dearly for GM's incompetence. I feel for them but what should I do? Sell my Prius and buy a Suburban??
     
  17. richard schumacher

    richard schumacher shortbus driver

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    Remember that neocons and reactionary Repugnicans also buy Prii. And rest assured, Dubya's handler's will see to it that the GM pensioner/healthcare mess doesn't land in the Federal lap until Dubya has retired.
     
  18. priusham

    priusham New Member

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    The thing that I tell most people that will listen, is, that the only thing that would have made the Prius better were that it had been designed in the US, built in the US, and sold worldwide, by GM, Ford, or Chrysler.

    That didn't happen <sigh>
     
  19. DaveinOlyWA

    DaveinOlyWA 3rd Time was Solariffic!!

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    well GM's actions over the EV1 told me everything i needed to know. and i cant feel bad about them failing when they dont feel bad about destroying the environment in pursuit of the all mighty dollar.

    they had a great product in the EV1 which shows they have the talent to design and build a winner. but as soon as they no longer were required to make it, they dropped it like a hot potato. and then to kick em while they down, they refused to let people buy them. they finally had a vehicle that they could sell without huge rebates and they refused to do so.

    i can only say one thing to GM

    good riddance. the good people working there will find other employment if they are worth a sh**. probably with a greater sense of acomplishment. i have seen first hand how GM smothers innovation and great ideas because of some market study that says that they need to go in another direction. i am a former GM employee (and there are a LOT of them) i admit i was simply there during a major shakeup. well they need another one but this time they are not no where near financially strong as they were the last time. when i was there they had stock rated at better than 10 to 1, cash to debt ratio was about 5 to 1... they in trouble...

    just as an aside. there were about 1500 people that went to Toyota after being kicked to the curb by GM... and although not one person wasnt scared sh**less when they lost their jobs, i betcha THEY think its the best thing that ever happened to them
     
  20. jayman

    jayman Senior Member

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    David:

    Oh boy have you got *that* right! Look at all their innovations - my personal favorite was the WeatherPak electrical connector - and yet they somehow managed to f*** it right up.

    You're on a roll son, keep it up.

    As far as the cost of the employee pension plan and health plan, I'm sure GM will use that as the excuse it needs to worm out of it. Much like how United Air Lines managed to weasel out of a mess they created.