Have low gas prices affected Prius price and availability?

I think dealers are still hoping to get those higher prices on their used models. A local dealer has 6 used 2006-2008 Prius around 23K. They still claim to be getting 2-3K over sticker for the 2009 model.

The problem is for the dealers that with lower gas prices, tightening of credit, and economic worries new car sales are in the tank. Those who can purchase a new car might be inclined to look at a another model (Corolla, Focus, Fusion, Fit). It could be good news for folks planning on buying a Prius over the winter. Time will tell.

 

from what I have read on this board Toyota had a hard time filling orders
back in the day due to demand. it was a hot car and was selling faster then
they predicted.

yes, high gas prices spiked demand last summer... but even before that it
was a good selling car.

i still think what i said is accurate. i am not judging the prius on just one
summer worth of sales but from what i have read of other people's experiences
on this board. People have said it was hot before last summer.

I still think it is a nice car ;-) and that is why it has done so well.

 

I put together the graph below for another thread to look at the correlation between hybrid sales and gas prices to see how tight a correlation really exists.



The correlation is fairly good overall, as you can pretty clearly see, though it must be noted that the percent increase represented on the # of units sold axis is much greater than that on the gas price side (>10X vs ~2.5X). The correlation factor is 78% between the two curves. 50% would be completely random, 0% would be completely opposite, and 100% would mean they always move together. They definitely trend together, but you can clearly see cases where they move independently of each other as well. While both curves certainly trend together, that does not necessarily mean one is causing the other.

While hybrid demand has spiked in response to most gas prices increases, there is an underlying slow steady growth in sales. Sales did increase this spring as prices were going up, but then we see the severe Prius supply restriction come into play around May. Now that supply is sorted out, demand is off for all the reasons mentioned above, but its only back down to where it was last winter. I can only imagine what this curve must look like for sales in most other car segments. Despite the drop in gas prices, it seems like hybrid sales are faring much better than the rest of the auto industry right now. Truck/SUV sales may be rebounding somewhat, but since the manufacturers/dealers are losing their shirts on discounts in a desperate attempt to get the things off the lot I'm not sure their units sales numbers paint an accurate picture.

Rob

 

excellent post miscrms!

About all i will add at this moment, due to I being at work, is that I see some seasonal
factors at play in the graph.

 

Here in NW Montana the local dealership has a small quantity on the lot, priced at MSRP, no premiums but no discounts either. They have financing available through Toyota, so I'm not sure the lack of available financing is really that big a problem. Consumer confidence is, and the lower gas prices (2.09 per gallon here, exactly half of the 4.20 it cost in July and August) also helps reduce demand somewhat. Still, I am hopeful that the 'scare' last summer left a lasting impression and served as a harbinger of things to come, and that the day of the omnipresent SUV and F150 will soon become a thing-of-the-past.

I don't expect to see $5 gas in the short term, not while the economy is sluggish. Hopefully the speculators and hedge-funds who got deeply into oil speculation got hammered when the prices dropped and are out of the oil speculation business for a long time to come. Still, I'm 100% happy I got my Prius when I did, don't regret it for a minute, and am glad to be saving gas regardless of what it costs.

 

With the current (relatively) cheap gas prices, all those un-sold, heavily discounted SUV's are starting to look quite attractive to many prospective buyers.

Keith

 

Excellently put. I hope the sting on peoples backside doesn't wear off too fast. Its interesting to note from the graph above that the first spike in Prius sales happened when gas skyrocketed to over $2 a gallon in 2005.

Rob

 

Sad but true. There was a great article a while back, might have been in CR, about how a vehicle that seems like a great deal upfront (they seemed to be particularly calling out the big3's penchant for "big discounts") often ends up costing you a lot more in the long run. This was all before the recent run up of gas prices, just a general reminder that the purchase price/depreciation of a vehicle is often only 25-33% of its total operating cost. Picking a vehicle that is reliable, cheap to maintain, cheap to insure, holds its value well, and is good on gas often ends up making a lot more difference in the long run than "employee pricing for everyone!"

Rob

 

Last night on TV news reporting a dealer in mid west sold 200 SUVs last month compare to a handful the month before.

Sad to see Americans have short memory and not learning.

There are 140 Prius in stock among the 6 dealers in the Sacramento area.
It is hard to justify buying a Prius when gas price is $2.25.

 

On a purely selfish note, I'm looking forward to being able to get a good deal on a second Prius

Assuming I don't end up unemployed

rob

 

I think this proves a point I made some time ago - Americans not only have very poor short term memory, we also have very poor long term memory. What a mess...........

Keith

 

miscrm, Would you be able to supply the data? I don't want to bother picking it off the graph. I'm actually surprised how closely the trends seem to be. If you bank the slopes to 45 degrees it may make look even more obvious.

What model did you fit? SLR or did you get clever with a GLM? It might be fun to look back at some of my time series stats notes.

I think it may be appropriate to remove the last few months of data for the simple reason that I think demand outstripped supply so # of prius's sold vs. gas price may not be very good at that point?

 

Sure, I'll attach the excel sheet to this page. Nothing fancy. The sales numbers are all just copied down from the green congress data. The gas price data is an average of the weekly data points from each month as reported by the DOE. Its almost more interesting to look at the market share data vs. gas prices. Its about equally correlated (77%), but of particular interest is the last data point. Even though gas dropped 18% from Sept to Oct, hybrid market share increased 20%. It will be very interesting to see if that continues next month, with gas having dropped quite a bit more. That would certainly be an indication that Hybrids are fairing better than the rest of the market despite falling gas prices. Otherwise it may just be the effect of Prius supply finally returning to close to normal.

View attachment HybridSalesGasCost.zip

<EDIT> sorry, zip was empty. fixed it now.

Rob

 

It just means that anyone who is in the market for buying a Prius (new or used) would get the best deal by waiting out the next few months (till Honda launches, Prius'10 launches, etc) - there would be a great deal on prices. This is what I am doing.

The assumption is ofcourse you can afford to wait that long for another car (i.e. you dont NEED a car desperately right away)...

 

Thats what I'm wondering. I'm not 100% sure that will be true though. If the Price of the '10 is high, the economy stays sucky, and gas starts to go back up I think prices could actually be higher than they are now. I saw an '07 certified pre-own (100k warranty) with 28k miles advertised for $17,900 the other day. Also saw an '07 Camry Hybrid certified with 22k miles advertised for $18,980. There was a '07 Altima hybrid with 25k for $15,900 out there. Best prices I've ever seen by quite a bit.

Rob

 

Just checked out Toyota Dealer Carlsbad, Clairemont, La Jolla, San Diego | Mossy Toyota . I've been watching this local dealership the last 6 months. I was offered a package 2 - $1000 below invoice Last march when they have 50 or so on the lot. Of course, when gas prices went up andeveryone rushed out to buy a Prius inventory sank to close to zero. In the last 2 months, I think they've sold about 5 Prius's and I think they may have over-ordered because they now have 64 sitting on the lot.

If anyone want to get a new Prius dirt cheap. Go here.
Personally, I'm waiting to see the 2010 models and the new insight.