Volt Plant VaporWare?

Not to spoil the fun with facts but the Volt factory is not on hold. The ENGINE factory that was to make engines for the Cruze and Volt has been put on hold. GM already announced that US production of the Cruze would be delayed from 2009 to 2010 so it is not surprising that they would delay the factory that supplies engines.

It is only the US launch of the Cruze that is on hold. The Cruze is already on sale in South Korea and will launch April 2009 in Europe. The engines for these are made in a engine factory located in Austria. GM could easily supply the limited quantity of engines for the Volt from the existing factory.

Again, sorry to spoil the fun. I know a lot of people here want to dance on the grave of a still-born Volt.

GM launches Cruze in South Korea, more than two years to go for U.S. - [2011 Chevrolet Cruze] - MotorAuthority - Car news, reviews, spy shots
GM confirms delays for Cruze, CTS Coupe and Saab models - MotorAuthority - Car news, reviews, spy shots
European launch for Chevrolet Cruze on track for April 2009 - [2011 Chevrolet Cruze] - MotorAuthority - Car news, reviews, spy shots

 

Here is what I do if I am GM, I bring in a Japanese and a European manufacturer, share in the cost of the R&D, prove the technology in a global vehicle alliance then license the patents.

 

Good idea!

If I was GM, I shut down the gas guzzler plants and focus more on vehicles that would be more energy efficient. It's apparent now, that GM has been making a rather large profit on the big SUVs and crew cab pickup trucks. Let's bring American technology (and not greed) to the global forefront for a change!!!

 

I really think the majority of people on PC want to see the Volt made and they would like it to succeed, just a lot doubt it will do either or both but if it doesn't make it to market or fails to sell I doubt anyone will throw a party.

 

GM wants to come out of nowhere with this Volt.

Meanwhile, Toyota has the very successful Prius, many are getting the PHEV conversions, testing the waters. I'm sure Toyota is looking at Li-Ion battery tech, checking out the new Chinese PHEV.

I think Toyota will come in sooner with a PHEV, better and for much less money.

GM calls the Volt an REEV, but it's equivalent to a PHEV I believe.

I'd like the Volt to succeed, but I doubt it's a priority for GM. They sure know how to hype though - all the commercials with Volt during the Olympics.

I'll bet GM is much more enthused to get the new Camaro out than a Volt.

 

The local GM dealer, Bill Heard, failed about two months ago. When I drove by their lot this week, it looked like a melting pile of snow ... there was a just a smal pool of vehicles around the building. But the other dealers don't look much better. Their lots are filled to overflowing. Even the Toyota lot is stuffed but no Prius were seen from the street.

What I've read suggests the historical 16 million annual car sales had fallen to 12 million in 2008. But we had about 3 months of normal economy in 2008 and the slow down has been more dramatic these last 3-4 months. IMHO, we aren't seeing a 75% drop in sales but more likely a 50% drop going into 2009.

Meanwhile, OPEC has discovered a reduced income because of lowered oil consumption. Actually the income just flat lined, the increase has disappeared. Now they find the lower prices means a distinct loss of revenue so they're cutting back on production. IMHO, the current low prices are transient.

Bob Wilson

 

If production drops below demand the price will rise. Don't see demand doing much soon.

 

there is no need to make big deal about engine plant not going online, because they can build those engines in other plants that are already there but running empty right now... So this means nothing for Volt

 

My guess is that oil prices haven't quite bottomed yet, but that they are getting close. And that they are unlikely to rise very much for the next few years. Currently, the futures contracts show higher prices for oil a year from now -- but only on the order of $50/bbl instead of the current $40. The people buying and selling those contracts don't have any crystal ball, but at least that shows that the people with their dollars on the table appear to think we're close to a bottom. And the price is enough higher that, if you could find the storage capacity, you could arbitrage the difference and make money at it (buy at current price, see the futures contract, sit on the oil for a year, make 11% net of costs, that's what I've read.) That's unusual.

But nobody expects it to spike up to anywhere near the level it was in the recent past. This is consistent with my understanding of that commodity. If the global recession/depression continues or deepens, it would be almost unheard-of to have commodity prices (including oil) rising, barring some large external event (e.g., collapse of the value of the US dollar.) If anything, I'd say we're more likely to see $20/bbl than $100/bbl over the next few years.

So, if I were planning car offerings, I'd be planning on $1.50/gallon gas for the next half a decade or so. At which point, though GM probably cannot say it publicly, given their frail financial health, it would probably be imprudent to go ahead with the Volt in any volume, and possibly to move ahead with it at all, even with the $7500/car federal subsidy. I'm surprised they haven't quietly shut down the development, given how things are progressing.

From the standpoint of satisfying mainstream consumer needs, the Volt solves a problem that just disappeared. And I think is unlikely to return for some time now.

Don't get me wrong -- I bought the Hymotion Prius conversion. I'm a believer. I just don't think GM can afford to move ahead with this now. They are going to be too preoccupied just trying to survive.

In addition, if, as bwilson4web suggests, we might be looking at vehicle sales below 12M units for the time being (which I agree with 100%), I think it's unlikely GM can survive in anything like its current form. In which case, we need to start lobbying to have whoever buys up GMs assets to take over the Volt project.

 

I'm more concerned about the 1 year delay of the Cruze then anything that might happen with the Volt.

The Volt is a halo car. They won't make much if anything on each sale and it will sell in low volumes due to the price. From a energy security and oil reduction view, the Volt is a tiny blip. I understand with the current atmosphere they can't cancel the project but it has never made much sense.

The Cruze is a high-volume product. Chevy is on track to sell more than 200,000 Cobalts and G5's in the US in 2008. The Cruze is the replacement for the Cobalt and based on GM's excellent world platform. If it does get 40 mpg highway and is sold at a price that GM can make money it is a win, win. GM has a small car that they can make money on and the US uses less oil.

 

Actually I subscribe to the theory that it is best to fix the roof before the rain storm. Working on the principle of 'buy low,' the right answer is to prepare now, while prices for energy savings are low, for the next bump. All it takes is another Gulf of Mexico, shutdown the oil production, storm and they'll be right up there again.

Personally I think the right answer is to merge GM and Chrysler to reduce the over production of energy inefficient models. Done right, the GM management that has been there at least four years too long disappears. Then Chrysler 'cherry picks' the best of the GM engineering staff and the problem is solved.

Bob Wilson

 

WHY is the Cruze on hold in North America? We already import cars from Asia, why is GM not importing the Cruze from Korea until it makes sense to build it here?

I think the term 'a lot' is a lot WRONG. My first thought when I heard the story on NPR was 'Great, they are delaying the one car they should have at the TOP of their roll out plans. I am GLAD to hear that is not the case.

GM is erecting a NEW 552,000 sq ft, $370M plant in Flint Michigan to build these engines. How many GM factories have been under utilized for some time? How many are being idled now? How many engine factories COULD have been made available by NOT building all of the various optional engines? They can't retrofit ONE to build Volt/Cruze engines? I know it still isn't cheap, but I have a hard time believing they can't put their "300 flexible machining and assembly stations" in an existing building for way less than it would cost to erect a brand new building.

GM officially announces Flint MI production for Volt/Cruze engines - AutoblogGreen

Kind of reminds me of a kid who had her parents buy a new pair of figure skates for more money than a pair of much higher quality used skates (broken in, NOT broken down) BECAUSE they weren't new.

 

Money. GM has put a lot of development on hold, the Volt being the exception. This is against the companies best interest in the long run but required to get government loans in the short term.

It is usually less expensive to start fresh with a new building than try to retrofit an old facility. The site preparation and utilities are usually paid by the local or state government. The shell is really quite inexpensive compared to the assembly lines, machines, and tooling that goes inside.

You also have material flow issues. Most older plants were originally set up around batch processes. In a batch process you have a worker or a group of workers making parts in batches, then move these parts to a storage area and then on to the next operation. Modern production use "one piece flow" (also know as the Toyota Production System). Each worker makes one part and that part is passed to the next operation. This greatly reduces wip (work in process) and also improves quality. (The next guy inspects the part and uses it immediately. If there is a problem, it is immediately known and you only have one bad part not a batch of 10,000) It is very hard to optimize a process for one piece flow in a facility designed for batches. (This is one reason that transplant facilities have very good numbers, they are all quite new and were designed from the start for one-piece-flow.)

You also have the issue of environmental issues. A lot of GM's plants are old and have huge ground contamination issues. If you rebuild on that site, you have to cleanup the site. It is often no worth it. I went to school at GMI Engineering and Management Institute in Flint, MI. This is an engineering school that was run by GM until 1984 and is now called Kettering University. In the 1990's GM demolished several plants, capped them with clay and topsoil, and gave them to the university for green space with the stipulation that they would never be built on. These were plants that have been opened in the 40's and 50's.

 

This is why we are entering a very dangerous period

Have you noticed that all serious discussion of energy independence appears to have fallen off the table? Let's face it, our proven domestic energy reserves are bleeding red ink with oil priced this low

As long as the global recession lasts (2010? 2012? Numbers keep changing at IMF and World Bank), energy imports will dramatically increase. Leaving us even more vulnerable

But, since we expect Something for Nothing, I'm not surprised

 

I'm surprised CERCLA/SARA wasn't involved. A lot of RRO's, GRO's, PAH's, and chlorinated solvents will migrate to water streams. I'd hope groundwell monitoring and air sparging are in place

 

Hi All,

I began thinking the Volt is a halo car, today. I was hoping it would suprise them, and take off with high demand. But now this suprise is probably 10 years away. And there is always that hanging doubt about the last time GM had a hands-down runaway success EV. I read today again, in Automobile magazine that was not so. More malarky.

I also read somewhere today that GM has said that battery failures are built into the price of the Volt. This is due to battery 10 year life uncertaity. Like they are not going to stand-by their work, or even share the risk with the customer. The price will apparently cover the cost of two batteries (more ? ).

The problem with this approach, is that it is an automatic economic failure for the car, in the long term. Its not priced for the true level of battery failures, as that is unknown. And that makes it too uneconomic to get sufficient production volume. This is akin to charging for two engines. What car today can be sold with the cost of two engines built into the selling price ?

The way to handle this is to limit the exposure. One way is to buy a Loyd's of London insurance. Maybe US Governement should help with this, rather than the bailout. The money was originally earmarked for implementing hybrid and more fuel efficient cars. So, that makes sense.

 

Wouldn't you 1st see if the chinese version was better and/or less expensive if you were European/Far East manufacturer? After all, it's at least being built already, sad to say. And that's what GM would do if roles were reversed.

 

Well, we got that this week with OPEC's proposed 2.46 mbbl/day cut in production, to start 01 JAN 09. We'll see if member countries actually stick to their quotas. They probably will at least for a while because none of them are happy with where the price of oil is right now. SA considers $75/bbl fair. Others want it considerably higher. They won't get it, of course, but OPEC is sure to cut production again if they don't like what they're seeing.