2022 North Atlantic Hurricane season

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, May 19, 2022.

  1. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    I'm not sure how that follows. I think when predictions can be made with great accuracy, the stock market will be priced efficiently.

    "we will all be rich" from the market, because of accurate predictions, only if there's a "we all" that can make them, and a "they all" that can't. (Which seems to be the premise that sells a lot of get-rich-quick investor newsletters.)
     
  2. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    An eastern Pacific storm has crossed into Gulf of Mexico. It will redevelop (but not to hurricane strength) and rain on S. Florida in coming weekend. I expect this to be the first named storm of N Atl season but not a notable wind event
     
  3. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Best of all worlds.
    The weather channel gets to sell commercials, the NHC gets something to play with, the folks in FL get to add to their 5 feet of annual rainfall, and not much chance of a loss of life or major property damage.

    Who knows?
    Maybe the kids in the 53rd over in Mississippi might get to spool up one of their 130J's and go on a training flight.
     
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Air Force Reserve hurricane flights have been up, if that's what you mean.

    ==
    Named storms in Pacific get renamed if they diminish before entering Atlantic Basin. In this case, Agatha will become Alex if winds increase. A trans-basin 'trans'.

    2022 is a La Nina year, with forecasts affected by lower wind shear such years have. However our current 'A' over Gulf of Mexico was inhibited from regrowth by wind shear. This is an example of climate (seasonal) differing from weather (this week).

    =
    For folks at higher latitudes feeling left out, see

    Nor'easters rivaling hurricanes as flood thre | EurekAlert!

    There are many ways to get wet.
     
  5. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Not gonna touch that. :eek:
    Especially after the 'trans' reference.....
     
  6. Skylis A

    Skylis A Senior Member

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    How often does a named tropical system in the Pacific Ocean cross into the Atlantic and its remnants become a newly named tropical storm? In other words, what’s the frequency of named Pacific-Atlantic crossover tropical storms?
     
  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    miami succumbing to rising sea levels, good thing central florida is barren
     
  8. edthefox5

    edthefox5 Senior Member

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    I am positive we will be fine in the Tampa Bay area this year as I am very prepared. Irma was a real wake up call.

    But if all I had this year was some candles and a prayer it would be Armageddon.
     
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  9. edthefox5

    edthefox5 Senior Member

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    I am positive we will be fine in the Tampa Bay area this year as I am very prepared. Irma was a real wake up call.

    But if all I had this year was some candles and a prayer it would be Armageddon.
     
  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    How did Maro Largo fare?

    Bob Wilson
     
  11. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    @Skylis A , Pac-> Atl crossovers are rare indeed. First place I looked was:

    2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    From 1995 through 2021 there were none eastwards. In 2016 Otto went the other way (Atl-> Pac). Older track seasonal maps are in:

    NHC Data Archive

    where Atl-> Pac storms were Diana 1990, Debby 1988, Greta 1978, Fifi 1974, Irene 1971, #10 in 1945, #8 in 1944, and then I stopped looking at earlier years. To anyone, please continue this search if it seems interesting. Back to 1851; the beginning of HURDAT2. (As an aside, old records may miss storms over oceans but not over land. People live on land, and promulgate records).

    Scoreboard now stands at eight Atl-> Pac storms from 1944 to 2021 (77 years) and one only Pac-> Atl crossover. That being our current spinner, soon to touch Bermuda.

    Crossovers are rare in general because land beneath dissipates wind energy by friction, and poorly supplies new water vapor (fuel). Prevailing winds are westward and (it seems) rarely otherwise.

    2022 Agatha/Alex is not a strong event, but its track is rare indeed. If it is truly unique since 1851, clickbaiters are missing a play.
     
    #31 tochatihu, Jun 5, 2022
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2022
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  12. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    "How did Maro Largo fare?"

    Mar A Lago :D had inches of rain and non damaging winds, A fella could look that up. But perhaps our Bob is hoping for much more wind energy and storm surge there - can't imagine why.

    If a large Asian country had a 'hurricane gun' as Mr. Mar A Lago imagines, I suppose they would fire it in coming 2 years.
     
  13. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Nothing to report about present conditions. But looking back in time, hoo boy:

    Blue Holes Show Hurricane Activity in the Bahamas Is at a Centuries-Long Low | Science| Smithsonian Magazine

    Indicating that things were much friskier from 1750 to 1850. When ships were wooden and wind powered :eek:

    Whatever this might imply about climate change as a driver, I see it as a very reliable paleorecord. So there it is. Storms in Bahamas are not a complete record for N Atl, but the area catches a large fraction of them. Besides, its proximity to Florida coast increases local significance.

    Sedimentation studies (such as this) do not illuminate what mechanisms were important back then. But one could hope for follow on work on isotope ratios in e.g. clam shells which are pretty good paleothermometers. Water temperature is a big storm driver.

    ==
    Flip this around and imagine if conditions of those olden days were to re establish. Florida for real estate or rocket launching? Hoo boy.
     
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  14. Merkey

    Merkey Active Member

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    So, you are saying I should rethink my FLA real estate purchase and my FLA rocket launching bidness?
     
  15. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Humor that was? Look - as we have no information about why 1750 to 1850 was so very hurricane frisky, we cannot anticipate its return. All we have is shorter-term 'looks like there could be a few more' and short-term sea-level rise. Undeniable and unrelenting.

    Florida 'land' holders below 2 meters MSL ought to consider their positions. Florida agriculturalists even higher ought to consider if their pumped groundwater might become more salty. If any look to me for help; oh my poor dears...

    Rocket launching seems a special case because there is always 'elsewhere' money to cover 'we had no way of knowing' problems. I guess.
     
  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Dang, Mar-a-Lago is at 5 meters. Still, closer to some of the storm surges.

    Bob Wilson
     
  17. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  18. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    anything that reaches trump will likely put millions of good people in harms way
     
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