2023 Global Hurricanes and Typhoons

Abandoning a N Atl focus this time. Later posts will summarize what is expected for N Atl this year. Briefly in advance ... average. El Nino (ENSO positive) is generally associated with low action in N Atl, but ocean waters seen unusually warm everywhere, so surprises are surely possible. I was in on the surprise of 1998...

Anyway 2023 has had Ilsa in Australia, Mocha in Myanmar Bangladesh, and Mawar in Guam as large ones so far. Each has been unusual in time or space, but one-year action is not climate change. You know.

Mawar has passed Guam and is generating divergent model forecast paths

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/02W_geps_latest.png

Assuming central among those, recurvature and offshore Japan etc. A lot of near-surface ocean mixing happens, so this might be a apt time for Fukushima to send their radioactive water out there. Dilution. But I do not know if all needed approvals have been given. They may hold their water a bit longer, but 200 hours later will be a dilution by mixing party party party.

 

NOAA predictions (outlooks) are here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/Slide1.JPG

Others will come along soon I suppose.

NOAA past performance can be seen or derived from here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane-archive.shtml