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2024 hurricanes

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Apr 4, 2024.

  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Predictions for n. Atlantic begin now. Klotzbach et al. at Colorado State ring in the season.

    Named storms 23 (decadal average 14.4)
    Hurricanes 11 (decadal average 7.2)
    Major Hurricanes 5 (decadal average 3.2)

    Even brieflier, above average. Will post others especially if they differ much. There is a lot of same among these predictions as use of precursor information has converged.
     
    #1 tochatihu, Apr 4, 2024
    PriusCamper likes this.
  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    it's only april!
     
    #2 bisco, Apr 5, 2024
  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Evaporate a lot of water and we're going to have a lot of rains and storms. Weather, we'll see some local droughts and lots of floods.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #3 bwilson4web, Apr 5, 2024
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    NOAA has their say in late May, predicting ranges for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes not unlike earlier Klotzbach/CSU. It is getting some coverage

    NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

    Looking for super duper (hyperbole).

    Surface water temperature and heat content in the formation areas are very high. Easing into La Nina implies that wind shear will be low. So, vorticity exiting N Africa will have fertile soil in which to grow (metaphor).
     
    #4 tochatihu, May 24, 2024
  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Not directly related but this has been a busy, severe storm Spring in North America.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #5 bwilson4web, May 24, 2024
  6. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    First named storm was Alberto, who watered coastal Mexico south of Texas. Second is forming up in Atlantic:

    Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits

    I am surprised that model tracks are so similar, but intensities are so different. Maybe that is how things usually are during early development?
     
    #6 tochatihu, Jun 29, 2024 at 6:06 PM
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