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2024 hurricanes

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Apr 4, 2024.

  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Predictions for n. Atlantic begin now. Klotzbach et al. at Colorado State ring in the season.

    Named storms 23 (decadal average 14.4)
    Hurricanes 11 (decadal average 7.2)
    Major Hurricanes 5 (decadal average 3.2)

    Even brieflier, above average. Will post others especially if they differ much. There is a lot of same among these predictions as use of precursor information has converged.
     
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  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    it's only april!
     
  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Evaporate a lot of water and we're going to have a lot of rains and storms. Weather, we'll see some local droughts and lots of floods.

    Bob Wilson
     
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    NOAA has their say in late May, predicting ranges for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes not unlike earlier Klotzbach/CSU. It is getting some coverage

    NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

    Looking for super duper (hyperbole).

    Surface water temperature and heat content in the formation areas are very high. Easing into La Nina implies that wind shear will be low. So, vorticity exiting N Africa will have fertile soil in which to grow (metaphor).
     
  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Not directly related but this has been a busy, severe storm Spring in North America.

    Bob Wilson
     
  6. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    First named storm was Alberto, who watered coastal Mexico south of Texas. Second is forming up in Atlantic:

    Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits

    I am surprised that model tracks are so similar, but intensities are so different. Maybe that is how things usually are during early development?
     
  7. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    H. Beryl powered up rapidly and is now a major (3+) hurricane. For new viewers some additional links to watch the show:

    Windy has weather radar among other choices
    Windy: Wind map & weather forecast

    Ocean heat content shows good fuel supply along predicted track:
    Satellite Ocean Heat Content Suite - North Atlantic - Office of Satellite and Product Operations

    CIMSS shows wind shear ahead (but decreasing):
    North Atlantic - Deep-Layer Wind Shear - Latest Available - Large Scale

    One of our stalwarts seems to be silent on this matter:
    Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasts and Guidance | Kerry Emanuel
     
  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    H. Beryl caused heavy damage in Grenada and Grenadines Islands. It is now cat. 5 and crossing Caribbean towards Jamaica. Ocean heat is a plus factor, while wind shear a minus. Models vary in emphasizing those factors, so Jamaica may see cat. 2 to cat. 4. But importantly Beryl is moving fast and Jamaica is on the 'high-wind' side, so expect a lot of shredding there.

    Two days after, Yucatan of Mexico gets a weaker hit. But ya got ta know that wind shear does not make wind energy and water haul go away, it just spreads them out.
     
  9. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    There is a live, YouTube feed from Starbase at the Southern tip of Texas. So far, the cranes are down but nothing else of note:
    upload_2024-7-8_4-2-57.png

    I'll post another after sunrise. But it looks like the hurricane is passing off that part of the coast. Back flow rain likely but otherwise no big problems. A storm surge would be a problem.

    upload_2024-7-8_5-6-7.png

    upload_2024-7-8_6-58-25.png

    Bob Wilson
     

    Attached Files:

    #10 bwilson4web, Jul 8, 2024
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2024
  11. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Houston is flooded (not at 'Harvey' levels), >2.5 million without electrical service, and a couple of people were unfortunately located under falling trees.
     
  12. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    desantis will fly in some electricity, or maybe bus
     
  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Drove through Huston for the last Starship launch. Easier to by pass.

    Bob Wilson
     
  14. vvillovv

    vvillovv Senior Member

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    Outer bands of what's left of beryl are just reaching us here around the last half hour. The track almost looks like it might pass to the west of us unless the prevailing westerly picks up after sunrise.
    10jul2024-5-15am-est-beryl1.jpg

    screen grab taken Wednesday 10 july 2024 5:15 am est.
    the track is presently north by northeast.
     
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  15. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    wow, i thought it was still further south
     
  16. vvillovv

    vvillovv Senior Member

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    the misses just said we're under a tornado warning from 1 to 3 pm and have to hide in the basement. I'm in the attic so I can here when the piter pater of rain hits the roof. We've gotten some thunder showers twice here since around 11 am, but so far nowhere near the predicted 2 inches of rain.
    It's a strange behaving storm up this way and we are only in the outer bands from what I can see from the radar. The big green area in the 2pm screenshot passed to our west and looked like it rained cats and dogs on Toronto while we got near nothing.

    10jul2024-2pm-est-beryl4.jpg
     
  17. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Houston still has 1.3 million de electrified. Will be restored by folks with bucket trucks, just like everywhere else. H Beryl was as weak as it could be to avoid demotion to TS Beryl. And yet, Texas power still makes news but not in a good way.