2025 scenarios

Scenario 1
Cities that were in decline due to the loss of industry and the desire of people to move to suburbia during the latter half of the 20th century have enjoyed a new rebirth. The inner cities of our country are thriving with new construction and more importantly jobs. What has led to this rebirth? Rising fuel cost, the reemergence of the rail industry, and the electric vehicle to name a few.

Scenario 2
While the US, England and their European allies were able to quickly mobilize their countries to move to alternative fuel sources (coal, nuclear, solar) the rest of the world was not so lucky. China, India, and Japan's gamble that fuel prices would decrease as consumption decreased was obviously flawed. Consumption increased and so have prices. Now China has mobilized for war. Their goal is the rich oil fields of the mid-east and Iran. Suprisingly little opposition has been voiced outside of the US. A unamed UN diplomat commented, "The world has been held hostage by these people for the last 30 years it's about time they got theirs." There is strong debate within the halls of congress whether or not the US will defend this action. Isreal has noted that it will not oppose the action. Where do we go from here.

Scenario 3
The latest generation of Toyota's Prius boast a 5 hp fuel efficient diesel engine thats sole purpose is to recharge the battery pack when solar or plug-in capabilities are not present. A five gallon tank provides all of the fuel needed for a cross country trip. " "My parents used to comment about 19 cent per gallon gasoline. Now gas is 23 dollars per gallon. Of course their cars only got about 14 miles per gallon then. Can you imagine that. Today my car goes 1300 miles on a gallon of gas. I only fill up 3 times a year."

Scenario 4
Former president John McCain died today after a fall in his home. Recently he was asked what he thought was his legacy would be. "I honestly believe that we as a nation could be energy independant. I asked for energy independance by 2020. We are on our way. Because of tax incentives and investment by industry a home buyer can put solar power in his home pay utilities for 10 years then no more. Excess energy goes freely back to the utility company to sell to other customers. Today we import about 10% of our energy needs from abroad. That's not good enough, but it's a start." Like John F. Kennedy before him, John McCain challenged a nation to achieve the impossible.

 

or:

The decline of American dominance in military and economic affairs has led the EU to regain a new resurgence of power completing mainly with China for world dominance. The problem of a constitution being ratified in the EU never was solved as at least one country objects to anything that is brought forth. The clause saying the constitution has to be unanimous is a fatal flaw it seems.

The super rich middle east block competes for not admission to the EU but control of it. A power manager of biblical proportions comes on the scene and is seen as the Maadi of the Muslim world. He can smooth talk anyone into anything and have them thank him for it. He says he can solve the world energy problems, food problems, and economic woes.

This new Maadi does just that. or seems to. He manages to smooth talk China into submission and submission without firing a shot. The EU falls into line as they cannot seem to agree on anything anymore amongst themselves. The American Democratic party wants to change the Constitution to make this Foreigner President of the US so He can rise to President of the world. " After all, wouldn't it be worth it to trade freedom and independence for safety and security?"

Japan solves the battery issues with the middle easts billions in aid. Prius is a world wide salvation for transportation as vans and even trucks come out using little or no gasoline at all with 1000 mile ranges on battery.

but it gets worse.......

 

This scenario is impossible as eletric vehicle performance potential is far greater than ICE potential. Eletric motors on a per weight basis produce 10 times as much horsepower and torque as ICEs. Once battery technology has matured to ultracaps and carbon nano fiber lithium both of which have a 10x storage capability over standard lithium ion batteries, there won't be a need for ICE's any more period.

 

oil price will never be at todays level because of inflation so scenario 1 is unlikely... but the bottom line...
chrysler will be gone for sure, prius will be long lived!