21,951 Aquas sold in Japan in February

Thanks OP for starting the thread. I am looking forward to his report on Saturday after touring the Plant.

Hybrids Top Japan

 

I don't think Prius c will sell anywhere near 20k/mo here in US, I'd guess under 10k / mo for sure, maybe 8k? We don't drive as many sub-compacts as Japan, but it's great to see them doing so.

 

What's wild about the success is the reality that 35,875 regular Prius were also sold there in February.

That put Prius on the top-selling list twice, in 1st and 4th positions.
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what is interesting is that if they built them faster they would sell more. There isn't much incentive for that, the Japanese customers are patient and will wait. That way they have a buyer for every aqua coming off the line.

Toyota had forecast 220K for unitied states prius family of cars, with 15%-20% for the prius c. That puts it at 2700-3700/mo. I think that is a low estimate for percentage and would expect over 4K/mo. 10K is crazy, I don't think they have the factory capacity to do that. Remember Japanese sales are juiced right now by both cash for clunkers and hybrid incentives. Without those incentives we will not see the kind of market share for hybrids that they see over there.

 

The Truth About Cars Japan
Toyota’s Prius C Plant
By Bertel Schmitt on March 11, 2012,

One Year After The Disaster, A Visit To A Symbol Of The Recovery: Toyota

 

The announcement of movement of other cars from Iwate just says this is permanent. 30K/month aqua production represents full production + overtime at Kanto autoworks.

It sure would be nice to add those 6K prius cs a month to the Mississippi plant, and allow the 30K to be for domestic japanese consumption. Japanese sales may drop after january 2013 when some incentives expire, but large aqua demand staying at least two shifts seems likely.

 

Although the USA market is not big on small subcompacts, but 6,000 Prius c/month for the rest of the world does not sound like much. IMO, If gas prices stay high, they will sell that many monthly in the US alone.

 

I think the sale of the priuc C will go up in US as the price of gas stay high this year.

usually gas in winter is lower than summer. lol I think it will go up a little in summer to about $4.6 in CA for 85 and over $5.xx for 91.

 

If they're selling all available c's in the USA they can go one of two ways: either they use the shortage to sell liftbacks or they increase the c production and reduce the Aqua. The Japanese are not only patient buyers, they generally have a more holistic view and I'm sure will accept the delays in order to increase exports.

 

way the system usually works is that marketing companies (TMS) decide how many units they need and then factories plan the production 6 months in advance.

I doubt TMS ordered more than 3k-4k per month, so dont expect those numbers to get a lot bigger anytime soon.

realistically, Prius c is not in the best selling size market in the USA, as B sized vehicle. traditionally B segment has been smaller portion of US market, so I dont expect Prius c to actually sell more than 5k-6k, with exception of high gas prices driving the demand and customers segment shifting. Keep in mind that Yaris and Fit sell 4k a month.

 

"rest of the world" for the c isn't much more than USA anyway — Canada and some Pacific countries but that's it.

 

While this is true, some of the japanese incentives expire in January 2013. These buyers may move to fit hybrids or other competitors cars. From the pricing, it looks like there is a much higher profit margin in japan with current exchange rates. If they don't increase production, I would bet they go with your option one, and sell fewer c's and steer buyers to liftbacks and other toyota cars.

These could be exported from US production if they chose to do it here. South and Latin America are also potential markets, if US production costs were low enough.

 

while US is biggest market for Toyota in the world, those other markets together actually sell more cars. If they say they will start selling in 60 countries in 2012, that pretty much means everywhere but Europe. So I dont think US will get more than 60-70% of that extra production.