$5 Gas in 2012?

Explains the cryptic passage at the base of the Mayan Pyramid.

"As The Calendar Ends They Shall Prius".

 

I put no more confidence in a "former shell president" than I do in mine ... a "former government" manager.

There are too many factors to consider. Just a few: Middle East politics; dwendling world supply; new domestic discoveries; congressional "cap and trade," the American economy, unemployment, the success of automobile electrification and etc. I know of no one that has these answers.

The best advise is to do the best possible to prepare the family for whatever: drive a Prius, consolidate trips, carpool, live closer to work, reduced debt, insulate the home, teach the children the vaue of work, and etc. Just remember: "After all is said and done, there is generally more said than done."

 

My psychic indicator is to watch which way the worms crawl on the sidewalk after a rain storm. They predict that retail gasoline prices in the U.S. will rise 20% in the year 2012.

Keith

 

$2.50/gal in a prius

 

Think again




The sooner gas hits $5 ... $7 and higher ... the sooner we can get back to a decent electric public transportation national goal ... like GM bought up and crushed (so they could sell busses) some 6 or 7 decades ago ... rather than pee'in away our national resources on our 50% + foreign oil imports. In the mean time ... be glad we all have the highest mpg ICE car available!
.

 

Get a Prius while they're relatively cheap before it's too late!!! China and India, the largest nations by population continue to grow and consume more of the world's resources. Once the U.S. and European economies start to recover and add to the demand of oil, gas prices WILL go up.

 

Here's a short read and good analysis for both an increase and a decrease:

Bull vs. Bear: How high will oil go in 2011? - Fortune Finance

.

 

If a certain situation hadn't happened in 2003, it would be more gradual, but someone wanted prices to rise quicker.

 

I just paid $3.35 a gal for 87 oct gas

 

That is also wells fargo and morgan stanley's prediction. I wonder if they have the same worms as you. The analyst wisdom is opec will raise production if gasoline rises faster than they want. If it rises too quickly demand drops. Gas also rises with a weak dollar, and QEII could go to QEIII and cause devaluation. Since other customers don't deal in dollars opec might let the dollar price go high faster than predicted. Remember you must read the fed and opec, not peak oil to get the price.

$110 in 2012, with the likely QEII, and euro debt crisis. If the dollar weakens or opec decides for oil blackmail prices will get temporarily higher. I return to recession and a stronger dollar and oil drops in price.

 

Supply & Demand.....

As long as the world Supply of oil continues to decline, and the global Demand for oil increases due to industrialization of countries and increased world population; the price of oil will continue to increase.

Keith

 

I'm personally waiting until QE8. Yay for $5/gal gas! Fewer huge-car-driving idiots on the road!

 

You may well be right, but your motive is questionable. True, it would impact "huge-car-driving" but it would have a negative and costly impact on just about every aspect of our existance. It is difficult to name a product that is not directly derived from petroleum, and virtually everything else is grown/manufactured, finished/transported, wholesaled/retailed, marketed and brought home aided by a petroleum product.

 

I'm thinking it's a definite possibility given the supply and demand. I see the demand increasing in the next year, but I don't see the supply increasing. Right now gas prices are over $3/gallon and this is the part of the year that they should be at its lowest.

 

I think that $5 / gall is very very likely within 2 yrs.

For those with the interest you can look up the pricing curves of retail gasoline on gasbuddy.com over say the last 5 yrs. Except for the crash the curves are very very similar.

This is the 'low point' of the year, i.e. the week between Christmas and NYD. Beginning next week the prices will begin the climb up through July 4th then level off during the summere driving season. After Labor Day in early Sept prices will begin to slide again through the Christmas holidays reaching their low point next year at this time.

Again except for the crash the subsequent 'low points' have consistently been higher than the prior year's 'low point' meaning that the following year's 'high point' around July 4th will be higher yet... a spiral.

So if we're at $3 / gal at the low point I think that $3.50 - $4.00 is very realistic by summer followed by a slide to the $3.25-$3.50 range this time next year..followed by a jump up to $4.50-ish or more by summer of 2012. If anything like a supply shortage or politics intrude then all bets are off.... $6.00 or $7.00 is not out of the realm of possibility.

 

Perhaps a small reduction of the larger idiot-mobiles, but nothing will reduce the number of idiots on the road.

As for $5 gas, bring it on.

 

How much does it cost to fill up a full size SUV these days?
Gasoline is $3.35 here in Southern CA right now.
I'm all for $5 gasoline.

(we don't want QE8 - it would make Chinese imports expensive and U.S. exports cheap. Sure, it would create U.S. Jobs and more domestic manufacturing, but U.S. salaries would decrease and Chinese salaries would increase. Let's not get thing started in heading down a path of FLIPPING the average family income between the U.S. and China)

 

In that case, the sooner we develop the many alternatives to using petroleum, the better. If we're as dumb as hammers we'll do nothing (or, god help us, turn massively to coal-to-liquids) and get severely spanked.