A frightening prediction of our oil crisis

interesting read. Not a very nice long term view. Long as in a few years.

 

Yeah... indeed... the bad thing about it is - its only a matter of time really. Hm...

 

I really don't think you should be surprised about the article, although I suppose a lot of folks who believe in "getting something for nothing" may find the conclusions either shocking or flatly unbelievable.

My parents are old: my dad is 85 and my mom is 79. They clearly remember The Great Depression and also have some sad predictions for me. They realize quite well that their generation will benefit most from things like Old Age Security and Pension Plans.

They feel sorry for me because they know I'll never see one penny of Old Age Security or a Pension Plan. Folks my age and especially younger will have to accept a *declining* standard of living.

First of all, we went off the Gold Standard a very long time ago. The 1945 Brettonwood Conference (Brettonwood NH) sealed our collective fates and the end result was inevitable.

Many assumptions have been ignored by average folks:

1. The concept of an "expanding" economy is only possible with more energy use and more consumption

2. The concept of an "expanding" economy is only possible with deficit spending.

Of course deficit spending is not just done by governments, and the availability of cheap credit has encouraged many to become indebted far beyond their ability to recover. If easy credit had never been made available, our economy would be far more sensible - and far smaller too - than it is now.

I disagree with some comments made by that article that Europe will somehow be a safe haven from the inevitable economic collapse: there will be *no* safe haven. Many third world nations experience regular economic collapses, I wonder how we will react when it happens to us?

I definitely agree that widespread famine will result from such a collapse. When you figure how much of our agriculture is dependent on petroleum, a price shock in petroleum that causes a complete economic collapse means the trucks stop running. So we starve to death.

A handful of folks - Warren Buffet et al - have the financial resources now to have already equipped fall-back locations to ride out any serious event. The average urban dweller will be completely SOL.

Maybe instead of the average urban dweller building up a paltry 1 week food supply in the pantry, they should invest in Cyanide capsules?

The thing is, regular price shocks tend to *enforce* conservation and reduce energy consumption. Whether it was The Great Depression, or the first OPEC crisis, our energy consumption went down during that period.

Consider that during the first OPEC crisis, the national speed limit was reduced to 55 MPH. Lowering the speed limit had one immediate benefit, and an unintended benefit: obviously, fuel consumption went down; and, highway fatalities went down too.

 

The tragic difference between the "first OPEC crisis" and this article's prediction is that the former was merely a bump in the road, whereas the latter will be absolutely permanent. It's just a matter of when, not if, the other shoe (anvil?) will fall.

 

Wow - doom and gloom....

Is there any light at the end of the tunnel, or should I start looking for a generic version of cyanide now?

Yoda

 

Buy land now. (10 Acers) Move out of the city. Buy Gun's( Needed to protect your family from raiders ) and Lot's of AMMO. Learn how to farm basics. Fruit Trees, corn, wheat, vegatibles, Buy Solar Array for some basic electricy( Radio ) , mybe a windwill to pump water.( Purification unit ) Raise your own meat - Chickens and pigs are easy. Rabbits maybe.
( I saw an article on how household pets ( Ferral cats and Dogs ) can be eaten ) Not something I would ever do but it beats starving.
Build a energy efficiant small house,(Brick with Insulation ) buy some wood stoves. Ride it out.

Now I am not a gun nut but I know how to use one.


And Lastly - Use Prius as a power gen station running on alcohol.

I watch to much Sci-Fi and read to much science. I beleive that when push comes to shove most people will work to create a new energy source. I know for a fact the U.S. Gov has a few energy generating devices that they are keeping secret. ( I worked for them ) Stuff right out of sci-fi .

Blue

 

It is hardly Gloom & Doom, nor is it time to build bomb shelters and buy artillery! It's just a wake up call for all of us, governments and citizens alike around the World to change our attitudes about daily life.

That article merely says that the container we call our world has a bottom, and we can now see it. It goes on to say that we have 20-50 years, maybe more, to come up with a totally new concept of living in a world that can support us if we don't destroy it like we've been doing.

Hey, we all are buying Prii, that's a start.... :mrgreen:

 

I am trying really hard to figure out how Rush and the neocons will make this the Democrat's/Clinton's fault. Lord knows the GOP (Gas, Oil, Petroleum party) has no culpablility.

I am sure some of our "right" thinkers will illuminate.

 

Whether the article is on point or not, we have received multiple warnings since the (so-called) oil crisis of 1973. As the Rocky Mountain Institute offers in "soft-path" models, if you want to double your profit, double your efficiency.

So, if fossil fuel availability is finite, double your efficiency. In the interim, you cut your costs by one-half, effectively "double your profit," and reap years of positive returns while all the other grasshoppers fiddle and make fun of the ants.

No rational person or corporation is knowingly ostentatious. True conservatives think and act long-term. The Rocky Mountain Institute continuously points out that we can live better by living more efficiently - by applying knowledge vs. substituting oil for knowledge.

 

Anyone ever read the full Moby Dick?

The chase for the great white whale begins by Herman Melville telling us about how important the work of the whalemen is to America. They are the men who provide the finest means whereby the lamps of America are lit. The oil from the sperm whale is the finest by which to use in the lamps that light American business and homes! It is work of the highest order, to bring that energy from the sea to be used to illuminate the dark.

If not for the Whalers, America would be a dark place.

Well, oil production is maxed out. And we are on the backside of the curve and it has to get more expensive. Just as before, there are alternatives. People will learn to conserve. Just because cheap oil encouraged waste doesn't mean that people world wide won't conserve more as the cost goes up. They will.

Just who needs a 3500 square foot house for three?

A 6,000 pound car for one?

75 degrees of heat in the winter?

I remember when things were made of steel. And plastic bags were unknown. Paper and glass can be made in abundance.

Oil can be made from coal, which is abundant.

So, some of this article is true, but the lack of sperm oil is not hurting America, is it?

Yes, change is here.


But, the sky is not falling, we may be entering an era of sensible conservation and forced innovation. Better days may well lie ahead.

This change from fossil fuels is it good or bad?

Put me down as good.

I welcome the trend, it could be seen coming, I got a Prius. Conservation is a higher priority. Bad or good? Think about it.

Edit:

furthermore, the article mentions extreme lag times on bringing other sources of energy production along. This is nonsense. We could build 50 nuke generating plants a year in short order if we put the national will to it. Any comparison to the nation's output in WWII and this articles extreme time scales for creation of new products, energy supplies shows that these quoted time scales are wrong.

What will change?

Long commutes to work

exurbs and suburbs will reverse growth and cities will be revitalized, the wealthyin the center and the poor on the outskirts. This is the way all cities were until cheap oil came along and changed this. It will revert. So what?

Setbacks required by zoning laws. The idiocy of requiring that every home be so many feet away from the neighbors is a cheap energy postWWII bit of nonsense that has to come to an end. Population density will go up. So what? Lots of festering problems will get some attention when the wealthy move back to town.

There are some upsides to go with the pain.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(ssmithri\";p=\"84284)</div>

Hmmm? :roll:

I put equal blame on both parties. Since the problem of Peak Oil has been known about for a very long time now, all we have accomplished is to defer the problem to future generations.

Dr. Hubbert of Shell predicted this way back in 1956, and rather than deal with the problem back then, we instead pursued cheap sources in unstable middle east nations. In hindsight that was a boo boo.

I'm sure there are many folks out there who believe the Earth is Flat, or at the very least filled with that creamy center of magically renewed oil. These folks will cling to their cherished beliefs in the impossible until it truly becomes impossible.

What we're dealing with isn't so much that we've used up the very last drop of oil, but rather the end of easily exploited sources of oil. There is plenty of oil waiting in the Athebasca Tar Sands in Alberta, but it costs way more than $1-$2 out-of-ground like it does in Iraq or Saudi Arabia.

A huge wild card in the oil debate is China, which has a booming economy and a critical shortage of oil. At what point are we willing to go to war with China? Iraq was a pushover, very easy. China has nukes and - more importantly - they know how to use them.

So as far as pointing fingers, lets point a finger at every Republican, Democrat, business owner, and voter out there: we're all responsible for this mess. I say we work together to fix it.

 

Robert Taylor, well said!

The challenge is that thinking and informed individuals who understand the consequences, and who buy Prii, must drag their elected officials, kicking and screaming, into understanding what you have stated....or convince more informed persons to run for office. Personally, I prefer the latter... :clap:

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Hytec\";p=\"84323)</div>

I like doing that. Am I allowed to boot them a few times too? Problem is the entire political scene is one of Lowest Common Denominator.

 

Jayman, don't forget India in this equation.

Between China and India, they represent more than half of the world's population who are willing to do just about anything to become as well off as the US protrayed itself as being over the past 50-100 years! The majority of low cost merchandise is manufactured in China by low-cost labor, and the majority of advanced technical support is provided by Indian engineers.

The sad thing about arrogant people is that they generally get severly burnt by those who resent being continuously put down those arrogant people.

 

Politicians FOLLOW the lowest common denominator, politicians do not LEAD. Any time someone attempts to break out of the pack and lead, the others nip at the temporary leader's heels. It takes an extraordinary leader to hold the pack together as support and not as advisaries.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(jayman\";p=\"84327)</div>

I think the alternative will be more productive.....we are having local elections next week and there are some well qualified non-politicians on the ballot. Fortunately we have an increasing number of young, educated individuals who have become sufficiently fed up with the status quo that they are willing to get involved...Thank God!!!!

I support them absolutely, but I don't envy their upcoming battles with the Press, NIMBYs, and Nay-Sayers.

 

Wow - Reading all the posts, I can't help but selfishly bring the whole topic down to how it affects ME.

Good points - More conservation being required doesn't necessarily mean that things will get worse. Aren't WE (Prii drivers) a perfect example of this?

My Prius uses 1/4 (or possibly less) fuel than my old Trans Am did. But my decision to get one CERTAINLY didn't make my life WORSE. NO - I love my Prius and all it's technical wonders. My life is BETTER with this car which is more conservative on resources.

Ok - Hybrids may not solve the problem - but they are certainly a step forward AND an example of how technology WILL allow us to conserve AND improve our living situation.

Rock-On Prius - we don't need to waste gas/oil.

8)

Yoda

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(yoda\";p=\"84346)</div>

Right on, Master Yoda!

A quick review of what actually kills large numbers of people in the past:

disease Half of Europe died twice from the black death

78,000 years ago a volcano that spewed 9 inches or so of ash world wide killed most all humans off.

Note that global warming isn't a threat to mankinds survival. We have the technical ability to make every desert bloom by water conversion salt to fresh water, using power from nuclear plants that generate more fuel than what they consume. We can make all the electricity we need from nuclear power. Drawbacks? Yes, but we already know how to do this. We can run every device, trains, small cars, even now on just electricity. We won't starve over oil running low or demand pushing the price up.

Painful transistion? sure, for many. Better life without so much fossil fuel consumpion and pollution? Most likely.

And I don't feel pained from my Prius either.

 

I've heard it said a few times: if every American drove a car as efficient as the Prius, we would not need to import ANY oil.

The author of this article makes it very clear that very small percentage changes in supply/demand make armagedon inevitable.

By buying/driving/loving a Prius now and creating this attention and interest for more efficient transportation, perhaps we are starting the 'revolution' that is necessary for the ordinary public to change the way all Americans (and maybe the world) think about gasoline consumption. We just need to wait for that '100th monkey' to jump on the bandwagon and change the tide...