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Arctic melting faster than expected

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by dragonfly, Dec 11, 2006.

  1. dragonfly

    dragonfly New Member

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    The researchers, who were funded by Nasa, said that the ice retreat is likely to remain fairly constant until 2024 when there will be a sudden speeding up of the process.

    In 30 to 50 years, they concluded, summer sea ice will have vanished from almost the entire Arctic region.

    ...a recent study by the Global Carbon Project suggested that emissions were rising more than twice as fast as in 2000, which was likely to speed up ice-loss even further.

    ...a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, widely accepted as the prime cause of global warming, would slow down the ice loss significantly"

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2500054_1,00.html

    Summer 2006 was a really bad year for snow/sea ice... something I get to see out ahead of reports like this one.
     
  2. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    Guess I'll have to go look at what Gavin and the boys at RealClimate.org are saying. LOL

    Then go look at what crap Ol' Steve Miloy is posting on his site. :lol:
     
  3. burritos

    burritos Senior Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Dragonfly @ Dec 11 2006, 06:46 PM) [snapback]360641[/snapback]</div>
    Good, maybe we'll run out of oil sooner than later too.
     
  4. Stev0

    Stev0 Honorary Hong Kong Cavalier

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    Quick! Someone should go up to the polar ice cap and it global warming is a hoax!
     
  5. Tideland Prius

    Tideland Prius Moderator of the North
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    Funny.. of course they say CO2 is a major contributor. It's the UK.. that's why they have CO2 taxes.

    There are also other gases you know. CO2 is just one part of the problem. What about water vapour? NOx?

    Hell, particulates can cool the atmosphere (think volcano eruption of Mt. Pina... sth.. the Philippine one.)
     
  6. Wildkow

    Wildkow New Member

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    Its all the Hot Air being blown about by the "Global Warming" crowd! :p :lol: :rolleyes: ;)



    Widlkow
     
  7. dragonfly

    dragonfly New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Tideland Prius @ Dec, 07:10 PM) [snapback]360716[/snapback]</div>
    As far as Greenhouse gases go, methane (CH4) is the big problem next to CO2.
    These are aerosols... they can play a role in either cooling or warming the atmosphere. Their cooling effect is known as global dimming.
     
  8. Tideland Prius

    Tideland Prius Moderator of the North
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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Dragonfly @ Dec 11 2006, 07:32 PM) [snapback]360736[/snapback]</div>
    Hmm.. should've used more technical terms especially since I learned it this year.

    Aren't aerosols larger than particulates?

    So aerosols is the term that I'm looking for, not particulates?
     
  9. dragonfly

    dragonfly New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Tideland Prius @ Dec, 07:38 PM) [snapback]360743[/snapback]</div>
    It's basically the same thing. Aerosols are particulates suspended in the air.
     
  10. Tideland Prius

    Tideland Prius Moderator of the North
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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Dragonfly @ Dec 11 2006, 07:40 PM) [snapback]360746[/snapback]</div>
    ok, I'm gonna stop before I embarrass myself further. How the hell did I past that course?
     
  11. dragonfly

    dragonfly New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Tideland Prius @ Dec, 07:45 PM) [snapback]360749[/snapback]</div>
    No, sorry, you didn't say anything wrong! I was just adding to what you were saying.
     
  12. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    I think you only have to be careful when you state particulates or aerosols and their attributed cooling or warming effects. Things like soot can do both. :)
     
  13. Wildkow

    Wildkow New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(F8L @ Dec 11 2006, 09:18 PM) [snapback]360791[/snapback]</div>
    Seems to me that the aerosols would last longer in the atmosphere since they are chemicals and others particulates are organic or somewhat organic in nature. Thus aerosols probably/only break down over a period of time, a long period of time. I know that some bacteria can break down chemicals but its kind of hard to get them into the atmosphere where they can do the work necessary. Just my 2 cents.



    Wildkow
     
  14. eagle33199

    eagle33199 Platinum Member

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    I find it funny that no one here is really questioning what the article is saying. I, for one, would like to know how they know there will be a "sudden speed up" of the melting process - it doesn't seem to make sense, although there could be a perfectly good reason for it.

    but more importantly... if the North Pole is gonna all melt away and sink into the ocean, what will we tell all the children of the world? That Santa decided to move his workshop to the Caribbean to work on his tan?
     
  15. MegansPrius

    MegansPrius GoogleMeister, AKA bongokitty

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(eagle33199 @ Dec 12 2006, 10:18 AM) [snapback]360835[/snapback]</div>
    The summary source of the article is at http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/arctic.shtml. The scientific article is being published today in Geophysical Research Letters.

    The reason for the sudden speed up they give is:
    "The research team points to several reasons for the abrupt loss of ice in a gradually warming world. Open water absorbs more sunlight than does ice, meaning that the growing regions of ice-free water will accelerate the warming trend. In addition, global climate change is expected to influence ocean circulations and drive warmer ocean currents into the Arctic.
    "As the ice retreats, the ocean transports more heat to the Arctic and the open water absorbs more sunlight, further accelerating the rate of warming and leading to the loss of more ice," Holland explains. "This is a positive feedback loop with dramatic implications for the entire Arctic region."

    And I think it's obvious that if the north pole melts away, Santa will go live with Sponge Bob. ;)
     
  16. dragonfly

    dragonfly New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Wildkow @ Dec, 11:34 PM) [snapback]360811[/snapback]</div>
    Aerosols are particulates. They can be solid or liquid. They can be organic or inorganic. They usually don't break down. The can settle (fall to Earth), they can seed cloud formation, or they can just remain suspended.

    I think you are confusing the term "aerosol" with the CFC issue that was a big deal 20 years ago... CFCs are a gas that were used to propel substances from aerosol cans. (The propelled substance is thusly turned into aerosols.) The problem then was with the CFCs, not the aerosols themselves. The CFCs are complex and unstable, and would eventually float up in the atmosphere and break down the ozone layer. They were banned in most places under the Montreal Protocol, and as a result, we are now starting to see a reversal in the ozone hole (it is closing back up).
     
  17. dragonfly

    dragonfly New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(MegansPrius @ Dec, 06:43 AM) [snapback]360845[/snapback]</div>
    Thanks Megan! Nice animation in that link.

    We have to be careful though because there are also processes that result from global warming that provide negative feedback (cooling). One of these is cloud dynamics. One thing we are seeing is that the clouds are becoming higher over the tropics, which may help cooling. But the net effect certainly appears to be accelerated warming.
     
  18. eagle33199

    eagle33199 Platinum Member

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    And of course, lets not forget the "Hollywood effect" from global warming - we have to be bashed with movies about "super storms" and such, over and over and over again...
     
  19. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(eagle33199 @ Dec 12 2006, 08:11 AM) [snapback]360892[/snapback]</div>

    What's sad is there is often some truth to those movies. If you are annoyed by them and not concerned then there is a problem. There are plenty real-life storm related disasters that have happened recelnty that might not been nearly as catestrophic has humans used their heads. Climate shifts can happen rather abruptly and with our current infrastructure and "information deficient" population we could be affected in a most dramatic way. I really wish Sacramento would see some sort of crisis where electricity shuts down and gas stops flowing. If even for only a week. Maybe people would then see how fragile our system really is.
     
  20. eagle33199

    eagle33199 Platinum Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(F8L @ Dec 12 2006, 02:03 PM) [snapback]361059[/snapback]</div>
    Yes, i'm annoyed by them. for the most part they're poorly written, poorly acted, and poorly directed. the only redeeming value they have is the special effects, which frankly are starting to get a little old. I watch movies for entertainment, not knowledge - if i want to learn more about the possible consequences of global warming, then there are many other avenues for that.