Are the Saudi Super Fields Knackered?

I watch that site too.
A lot of really intelligent posters from within the oil industry.
I gotta believe they know a lot more about the situation than the GAO or CEMA or whoever the hell is trying to say we'll peak "sometime" in the next 40 years.
They are sounding alarm bells about their own industry.

2009 sounds reasonable to me, but I'm not sure the "general public" will know or inderstand that we peaked or what the implications are. The rising prices will probably cause third world bidders to drop out first, and ethanol will be used to stretch the supplies we do have. I think about 2011 may be when the whole house of cards come down.

What is interesting is we are seeing China, India, etc heading into the same trap of oil dependance as the US is already in! If we can start going the other direction before they do, we just might come out on top. Or we could outsource the dependency solutions to China, and dig ourselves even deeper.

Where's docBerman and malorn? I want their take on this. They can poo poo global warming all they want, I don't care. Peak oil is the issue that's going to matter and every time I bring it up to them, they totally ignore the subject and go back to gore bashing.

 

The thing is, whether it's 09' or whether it was 5 years ago, doesn't really matter. The reason being, when it does (presuming not already) happen, the industry simply pumps more water/steam into the field(s) to boost production. Giant fields won't just go BOOM- then nothing. It'll take a few years before the giant fields are at a state of "undeniably" peaked. Corporate ownership will never say, "Oh my God ~ everybody panic".

 

True, water injection, cutting, and other techniques can lengthen out the peak, but then the downsloap is more a cliff than a gentle slope. Saudi Arabia has been using these techniques for years. The scary part is that their use of these techniques ia rising exponentially. So is their use of off shore drilling rigs. Yet, despite this, their production declined. (along with Canterell, north shore, and others)

The problems we face are not "running out of oil", the problem is that:
1) the energy return on the pumping is decreasing rapidly. IE: We have to use a barrel of oil to recover like 5 or 10 barrels. It used to be 1:30 or better. Oil sands and shale recovery are like 1:5. not 1:30. And some point not to far off, you get a 1:1 and the game is over.

2) The supply rises above the production curve, creating actual shortages, an exponentially rising price, and ultimately, people fighting over the resource in question (wether war, or just internal fighting).

This is not the economic or political environment we want to be building the replacement infrastructure in. We need to do this investment and work now, while oil is still affordable. Too bad that's now how capitalism works.
And oil companies understand all of this and is the reason they buy up/own many patents on batteries, solar energy, etc. But they want to milk it for what it's worth on the way down, and then have the replacements at huge markups when they become needed, as opposed to when they are wanted.

 

sorry dont buy it. i believe they hit peak oil and are already on the decline.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(tripp @ Apr 11 2007, 12:21 PM) [snapback]421545[/snapback]</div>

One word.

Good.

It can't happen fast enough for me. People are too weak to ignore piles of money(ie. oil, diamonds, copper, trees, or whatever 'resource' de jour that we can extract/bulldoze/stripmine). The sooner these piles become irrelevant, the sooner we as a species can use our collective brain to innovate and truly "help" one another instead of fighting each other for the last crumb.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(burritos @ Apr 12 2007, 12:57 PM) [snapback]422055[/snapback]</div>

I guess I sort of agree, but it depends on how fast the production downslope happens.
If it is rapid decline, than we are truly up sh** creek sitting in a giant empty gas tank with no paddle.
We have barely begun to adress how we will we grow and transport our most valuable commodity, food.
If the oil flow trickles to a drip, how do we build the next generation of transportation, tractors, home heating equipment, etc? We can't all grow our own food, burn firewood, and work from home.
And those who can will quickly find agressive hungry people at their doorstep.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Darwood @ Apr 12 2007, 12:39 PM) [snapback]422083[/snapback]</div>

Oil won't run out tomorrow. Cheap oil might. It'll change people's behaviors. Maybe we'll homestead local golf courses, maybe we'll eat our neighbors' dogs, who knows, I don't have crystal ball. I have certain notion of what might happen but whether I want it to happen or not doesn't matter, peak oil is a reality that we need to deal with. The sooner the better, otherwise better hope that dog tastes like chicken.

 

"peak oil is a reality that we need to deal with. The sooner the better"
Couldn't agree more.
Too bad we're not actually (collectively) doing anything about it. Gas consumption continues to rise here and in China. Most predictions say we need 10-20 years of full bore preperation to prepare and we don't have that kind of time.

 

Gasoline hit $3.00/gallon here today.

Harry

 

I've been reading a lot about peak oil, and it seems that the only thing that's debatable at this point is what year. I'm looking out the window right now at someone's SUV parked with the engine running. Clearly a sizable part of the population has no clue about this. I'm not sure how to make them aware- the deniers will be sure to say it's nothing but "chicken little", just as they do about global warming.

 

Putting it in a "panic" context will open the door to artificially
jacked up prices [again], at least near term. Sometime thereafter,
it won't be so artificial, but there's still a lot of mileage left
in the "dupe the public because they believe faux news" game.
.
_H*