Betelgeuse Beetlejuice Betelgeuse Ay Oh

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by vvillovv, Feb 3, 2025.

  1. vvillovv

    vvillovv Senior Member

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    There I said it.

    It's 40 F today and it was -4 F Sat at 5am. Anyway, if by chance anyone is interested in what the top of the food chain knows about some of out closest neighbor stars, this betelgeuse tube might be interesting.



    the audio sounds like it could be an AI orator, but I didn't detect any obvious clues that it is.
     
  2. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    78 and sunny yesterday.

    Groundhog.....tastes like chicken once you get past the fur.
    I think I read where some drive-by statistician said that 'Phil' has about a 40% accuracy rate over the last 138 years or slightly less than NOAA - as assessed by........
    TIFWIW.
     
  3. Mendel Leisk

    Mendel Leisk Senior Member

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    It bothers me, that if Betelgeuse were to be where our sun is, we’d be in it. Mars as well, if I heard right.

    apparently you can copy and paste the closed caption of a YouTube video? I didn’t get far trying that on my iPhone, will maybe try later on pc, post if successful. The stream of random astronomical imagery while trying to read was distracting.
     
    #3 Mendel Leisk, Feb 4, 2025
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2025
  4. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    I can't even copy and paste some of the URLs from our State Funded Media......
     
  5. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    40%? Maybe we're just interpreting the shadow wrong. Did the same statistician figure out how accurate he'd have been if we interpreted it the other way?
     
  6. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    So.....what?
    That might mean that Phil is As accurate or MORE accurate than $cience????

    That appeals to me actually, but I always actively search for contrary evidence for my presumptions.
     
  7. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Weather forecasts have become much more accurate; we now need to make them available to everyone - Our World in Data

    about hallway down page is ECMWF, for 3- to 10-day forecasts. This is only through 2018, and there would have been a bit nudging up more recently.

    The groundhog shadowcast is of a different sort. Six weeks is a very different topic, with troposphere hustling and bustling in longer time frames. Also, 'weeks of winter' is sufficiently open to interpretation that one can call a forecast accurate or busted, depending on personal preferences.
     
  8. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Just like any other science? ;)
     
  9. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Actually, no. Testing for accuracy can be objectively defined for other-than-Phil forecasts.

    There are web sites assessing sub seasonal and seasonal 'real' forecasts as well. They are very easy to find. Let me know if you need help actively searching for contrary evidence for your presumptions.
     
  10. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    I'm good.
    upload_2025-2-5_17-48-3.png
     
  11. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  12. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    my iphone weather app doesn't even know what it is currently, never mind the future
     
  13. vvillovv

    vvillovv Senior Member

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  14. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Recent earthquake swarm under Santorini has been sudden, strong and not known to me if unprecedented. It could pop, sure, you betcha.
     
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  15. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Pretty sure it's happened before.....