bmw - the ultimate hybrid machine? Most beemers will be phevs in 2022

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by austingreen, Jun 17, 2015.

  1. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Don't just link to the article, but include some of it. See:**Read First** How to post News Articles on PriusChat | PriusChat

    By 2022, All BMWs Will Be Electric - Most Will Be AWD Extended-Range EVs
    Future BMW 3-series to lead EV revolution | Autocar

     
    #1 austingreen, Jun 17, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 19, 2015
  2. GrumpyCabbie

    GrumpyCabbie Senior Member

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    They will indeed - and they're starting to be release here.

    They're pretty much all compliance cars with miniscule HV batteries giving about 10 miles official miles on the EU rating to gain great mpg averages. In reality they'll hardly be worth plugging in, even here with petrol at $8 a US gallon.

    Shame as the i3 and i8 are nice.
     
  3. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I would count the i3 as their first modern phev ;-) The 330e that they are planning has a 7.6 kwh battery.
    First Images Of BMW 330e Plug-In Hybrid
    That 22 miles may be nedc. The fusion energi with a similar battery though gets 18 miles epa range, so 22 epa is not out of the question.

    The key are the euro and american regulations and battery costs. I suspect in 2022 the target for this bmw battery prices will be around $250/kwh, making a 10 kwh battery only add $2500 in cost. If they get a 25% margin the price charged will only be $3350 over hybrid. A turbo charged 3 or 4 cylinder engine + phev should cost bmw less than a turbo inline 6 (35i) drivetrain when this comes to be.
     
  4. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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  5. telmo744

    telmo744 HSD fanatic

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    Toyota is lagging behind, should target BEVs 'cause Bimmers will have both. Maybe they will change the ad to "EV are only for people that have 10 hours to waste"
     
  6. 2k1Toaster

    2k1Toaster Brand New Prius Batteries

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    The next gen BMW's won't just be little 10mi PHEVs like they are now. Gen IV BMW electric drivetrains are pretty sweet. Should be introduced in the 2020-line-up for some models so 2022 sounds reasonable for the followers.
     
  7. GrumpyCabbie

    GrumpyCabbie Senior Member

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    I wish I could see 7 years into the future so reliably ;)
     
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  8. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    In 7 years if bmw and audi can effectively lobby the german government.

    Both will still have diesels. Some diesel will come from renewable electricity.

    bmw will have a phev or bev at each car size. This will follow the i8 or i3 strategy. i8 uses a 7.1 kwh battery, soon to be released bmw 330e will use 7.6 kwh, I doubt we will see anouther new 10 mile bmw model. Size of the battery will reflect battery costs and government regulation. At current regulation for 2025, that probably means around 20 mile range. BMW took notice of the efficiency and driving dynamics of e4wd, and many will have a e4wd oprion. That may mean that fwd hybrid which is lighter and cheaper is the default, with eAWD the preferred option.
     
  9. 2k1Toaster

    2k1Toaster Brand New Prius Batteries

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    Then you should work at a semiconductor company that is a major IC supplier to BMW and therefore sees all the BMW schematics and diagrams for next gen and gen+2 models... like me... :)
     
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  10. GrumpyCabbie

    GrumpyCabbie Senior Member

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    Whether that's true or not, it's a good answer :)
     
  11. telmo744

    telmo744 HSD fanatic

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    Audi has made a very effective marketing move. Even you were suggested to believe e-diesel will succeed in such a short term. :rolleyes:
     
  12. GrumpyCabbie

    GrumpyCabbie Senior Member

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    Diesel lost market share here - only just, but it's going in the right direction. Private owners in particular are reaslising that money saved with better fuel economy is more than lost in higher purchase price, higher servicing and maintenance costs, dpf issues and now with higher proportions of biodiesel in fuel in winter diesel cars are breaking down. It's just not worth the hassle.

    Diesel biofuel content suspected cause of unexpected winter breakdowns

    "Nowadays, however, diesel produced for UK winter use is formulated with additives to prevent waxing.

    The symptoms of the current problem are similar to those of waxing but the cause appears to be different. And, unlike waxing, when the weather warms up the gel does not dissolve back into the fuel which means a new filter has to be fitted."


    Diesel has many uses, just not in cars. It is causing too many issues and problems. Diesel is where steam trucks were in the 1930's; they worked, they could do the job, they had some benefits like being lovely and warm in winter, and some negatives in that they were a bit smokey, and in the end they were just not worth the hassle.
    [​IMG]
     
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  13. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I think there is a good chance it gets subsidized enough in germany that it is sold in europe. Subsidies for e-diesel don't need to be nearly as large as for hydrogen to get a similar environmental effect.

    On the road of fast refuel alternative fuels to oil, I like lng and methanol. Both can be made renewably, but aren't because of cheap fossil methane. Both require some regulatory changes though, and I don't think that will happen in europe. For lng, in the US there is not the federal help but states big states are pushing it for big trucks, and their is hope. For methanol blends, california first supported and killed it for hydrogen, there is a bill in US congress but it is going nowhere. China likes methanol and its use there may lower the strain on oil production. In europe with all the nuclear and wind power, these e fuels can probably be made cheaply off peak. in China there is no extra electricity for decades, texas may be a good source of renewable methanol and renewable diesel in a number of decades as it has ports to export, refineries, and likely excess cheap off peak wind in the 2030s and lots of agricultural waste that can be made into bio methane..

    Flex fuel hybrids and phevs that can burn M85 (high methanol blended fuels) likely are an inexpensive path to renewable transportation.
     
  14. telmo744

    telmo744 HSD fanatic

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    For the moment, the e-diesel is produced in a pilot size plant. It will require a lot of time until it gets to an industrial size plant, licencees and regulation package.
    The amount of e-diesel in 10 yr span will still be too small.
    Electrification of cars (via plug-ins and BEV) seems much easier to grow steadily.
     
  15. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Yes, with existing infrastructure and steadily improving batteries, plug in cars should steadily grow. They still have limits that prevent there spread to all vehicles though.
    The recharge times of BEVs will keep them from some commercial applications, or the repeated chargings beyond what a personal car would see will degrade the battery fast enough to make it financially unappealing.
    Plug in hybrids solve that problem, but the ICE is still burning a fossil fuel. Replacing it with a fuel cell is an option, but a hydrogen network is a major investment in time and money. Ediesel uses the same power sources as renewable hydrogen, but already has the infrastructure in place for it. Bio-petrol may also pan out.

    A vegetable oil based diesel replacement, that isn't biodiesel, is already available. There are also the alcohols. Ethanol has its issues; potential competition with food crops and is in compatiable with existing petroleum pipelines. Bio-butanol is fine at higher concentrations in existing cars, and should be fine in pipelines, but is made mostly from the same sources as ethanol. Methanol can be made from NG or bio-methane, but I don't know how safe it is for pipelines.

    CNG and LNG are also options that can be made renewably, but require infrastructure, at a lower cost than hydrogen.
     
  16. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Well I agree here.

    E-diesel relies on 2 technologies, hydrolysis and gas (methane) to diesel, both fairly proven. Sansol just delayed their US gas to diesel plant because unsubsidized the diesel would end up costing $4/gallon for sansol to make a fat profit. That plant would rely on cheap shale gas as a source of hydrogen if and when it is built. This is well understood technology, but not mature, so they can build huge plants economically but not little $100M plants. That may change soon as companies are quickly doing R&D on this technology as oil company reserves move from crude to gas.

    The second technology is non- hydrogen or methane - electrolysis using renewable power , or biodigestion to get hydrogen or biomethane. The cheapest source would be off peak nuclear and wind. In Germany 2015, there is not enough of this cheap power to feed a big plant. Texas/Louisiana you could probably build it relatively quickly, but natural gas is so cheap that it looks like a bad investment. But this is a fairly easy, if not cheap way to quickly add carbon free diesel to transportation. Small plants can easily be made for methanol though, which could be added to gasoline for a flex fuel hybrid or phev.

    The real push is car companies don't like the zero mandates, and indeed with the posibility of synthetic fuels and pollution control, there is no reason to favor hydrogen over phev using rM85 (methanol (bio or e) 85% gasoline 15%) or a diesel burning eDiesel. I think bmw is firmly behind a move to phevs, but vw group sells many more cars and the advantages are smaller in less expensive cars.
     
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