Branson, Bezos take a hop but NOT Musk

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by bwilson4web, Jul 12, 2021.

  1. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    why can't we just accept that we are doomed
     
  2. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    You can.

    I won't, because I don't believe it is the only possibility. At least, not within the solar system's timeframe.
     
  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    fair enough
     
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    How many people will ascend 10-12 times higher than commercial jet flights? How soon and at what price? This may not be a large matter for consideration. Rich people do self-involved things with their loose cash, and richer people provide spending pathways for that. It would only be notable if rich people otherwise would invest mainly in bettering the human enterprise, in the absence of these self-involved expensive fun instagramable things/experiences to buy.

    A lot of human-benefitting things are funded by some rich people, and those may not need description. But 'fun' remains a strong magnet. If this upgoing were not supplied, there are many substitutes like superyachts, supermansions, supercars and superexpensive other things.

    Musk probably has the best claim on turning his (and customers') excess cash into collateral humanity benefits. Bezos plans to follow NewShepard with NewGlenn, which might do something useful. While I'd wish to say otherwise, Branson's 'Galactic' does not clearly lead towards anything useful to humanity. However his spun off 'Virgin Orbit' may get good at delivering low-earth orbit devices.

    That last thing is now being done best by Musk, by a mostly beneficial development of Starlink. It (and competitors) are actually testing when low-earth orbit will get trashed by 'Kessler Syndrome'. That will happen and will need to be fixed by technology not yet developed. That will be the first example of human hubris 'spoiling the nest' beyond earth's land and ocean surfaces.

    ==
    I believe it will take a long time for humans to access new-home planets. A worthwhile goal, but they are beyond 10 light years and a few may exist within 100 light years. 'Burn' rockets offer nothing for it, and better technology remains unknown. We have no evidence that any current sapping of rich peoples' excess money does advance this.

    ==
    It would be a prideful thing for (Moon or) Mars to support human colonists in 21st century. But I cannot see how that contributes to the larger goal of extending humanity to light years, not light minutes.

    ==
    This here galaxy is large, and sparse, and it strains our imagination to perceive, It may host many civilizations unknown to us. Some may have learned how to extend their reach to light-years scales but apparently we have not drawn their attention. Maybe we will draw their attention by self-harming cluttering of LEO, or by sending some meat light-minutes away with burn rockets. Or by self-harming on our home planet. But in my opinion, we remain ignorable.
     
  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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  6. John Dadmun

    John Dadmun Junior Member

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    It is not unreasonable to foresee extreme human life extension through science, kids born today could live dozens of years longer than we will through future science and discovery. Unlikely, but within the realm of possibility. May come a point where death is no longer a natural thing for humans. If that happens, colonization beyond Earth would seem do-able & inevitable.
     
  7. Mendel Leisk

    Mendel Leisk Sand Pounder

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    I find it hard to get motivated about this travel to other stars. For starters, barring “worm holes”*, it would take mind-numbing generations to get to anything with a remote chance of being inhabitable.

    Much easier to get our own house in order?

    In another 20 years or so I suspect I’ll be really disinterested lol.

    * maybe peruse Robert A. Heinlein’s “Tunnel In The Sky”
     
    #47 Mendel Leisk, Jul 16, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2021
  8. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    I see getting our own house in order as is a necessary prerequisite to traveling to other worlds. The latter is going to take a very long time, much longer than how quickly we've shown that we can seriously screw up things here, or how long the planet's greatest civilizations have managed to survive so far.
     
    #48 fuzzy1, Jul 16, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2021
    Mendel Leisk likes this.
  9. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    we still have a few billion years, no?
     
  10. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Several or maybe just one billion years until the Sun bakes or even vaporizes us, depending on whose model is referenced.

    But that is only the last of many catastrophes and demises. ETC(SS) mentioned numerous others types of nature-driven civilization killers that historically have happened at far shorter intervals, numerous of which will be unpredictable.
     
  11. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    we better get hopping then, i'm not sure how much advancement we'll make with tourist trips
     
  12. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    this may help. possibly a new home for us?
    8080992002
     
  13. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Maybe a waypoint on the path out of this solar system, especially if the emigrants wait until the last moment before getting started.
     
  14. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    If your house is on fire, and you're not able to put the fire out (whether or not YOU started it in the first place) then it seems prudent to me to at least make plans to get out of the house regardless of whether or not calling the fire department would be a GOOD thing to do..
    .....and let's just say that after the latest "opportunities to excel" opinions that vary on that.

    Besides....
    Asteroids aren't going to wait around while we dither about.
    Neither will any of the other MEAs that we've mentioned or any of the ones that we haven't even imagined yet!!!

    As I said in another post, I blazed through Andy Weir's latest 480-page "Project Hail Mary" recently, which was an excellent book that deals with an interesting take on a non-human-caused event that threatens to eliminate the Earth from it's primate-pest infestation.
    No spoilers, but of all of the things in the novel that I found to be the LEAST plausible was the notion of humans acting collaboratively, to say NOTHING of EFFECTIVELY to solve an urgent problem.

    Nothing else in this book seemed as unlikely.

    So.....
    Whether you're a person of faith and you think that the end-times will feature equine trumpeters,
    Or? A political nerd that thinks it will be a different sorta...."trump" or even a bunny squeezer that thinks that we humans can get our poop in a group and try to "fix" climate change...effectively....and safely....it seems to me that aeronautics research and development falls under the "good thing to do" category.

    I understand the deep reservations of those folk who think that dot.gov is the end-all be-all of problem solvin, especially when the alternative is billionaires lofting rockets, creating jobs, widening our capabilities in LEO (for now) and prompting future generations to dream of colonies elsewhere.

    I'm reading another book now.
    upload_2021-7-25_11-49-51.png

    This is a book about just how close we came to a perhaps endlessly repeating cycle of government controlled, upwardly spiraling 'cost-plus-fixed-fee' options for space flight.

    As I've said before, as much of a tool as he is (and he IS!!) Elon tried two of the only guaranteed ways to become a millionaire.
    1. Take a billion dollars and try to start a space-flight company
    b. Take a billion dollars and try to start a new car company.
    Elon even got extra credit for "b" above by trying it without using petrol engines.

    Most people do not know how VERY VERY close we came to not having SpaceX to kick around anymore.
    Elon, literally, put every chip he had, in both companies, including some that he begged, borrowed, and (some have suggested) 'liberated' on that fourth flight.

    To the best of my very limited knowledge, Elon's companies to not 'offshore,' engage in child labor, or try any of the endless tax-dodges and cost over-runs on dot.gov contracts that "other" companies get away with.
    Many of the technological developments in in BOTH companies have been on their own hook, effectively costing the humble taxpayers......nothing.

    Elon isn't in bed with the FAA,SEC,DOT or any of the other people that are "here to help" (unlike at least ONE of his competitors) but rather he often as not directs phallic gestures their way!

    The same sorts of things can also be said more or less of the other two, good AND bad.

    Saviors?
    ...hardly....but entertaining at the very least.
    Cost effective too.

    Besides...it will be up to history to judge them....AND the rest of us!

    Kinda hard for those pesky humans to re-write history if they're not around...... :unsure:
     
    #54 ETC(SS), Jul 25, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2021
  15. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    same was said about ford and edison. as for history, we're going to need to survive an awful lot more here on earth, before we have any possibility of find ing another planet to house 7, 8, 9, 10 billion people?
     
  16. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Saving THIS rock from being the 8-ball in a galactic billiards game might be a good way to start.....
     
  17. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    good idea, i think we can leave it to the chinese. they have the capability and money to accomplish it, and more to lose
     
    #57 bisco, Jul 25, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2021
  18. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  19. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Look at downtown L.A. (needles & poo, oh my) & one gets the sense it won't be too long . . . .

    [​IMG]

    .
     
  20. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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