Canadian Election Thread

There's a few Canucks on this board, so I thought I'd try my hand at starting a short topic. This thread is bound to be short-lived as today is election day.

I am more excited about this election that the previous one. Tons of people are still undecided. For the first time in years, the result is not a foregone conclusion.

Of the friends I've spoken to who've made their decision, many choosing different parties than they usually do, sometimes for reasons that seem wonky to me.

Some would normally vote NDP, but are not thrilled by Jack Layton's performance in the recent debates. So they're voting Green. Not so shocking, I suppose.

I have friends that support gay marriage, think the Canada Health Act and the Charter of Rights and Freedoms are sacrosanct, would never support profligate use of the notwithstanding clause, and think tax cuts are a bad idea. They normally vote Liberal but they're going to give Stephen Harper and the Conservatives a chance because they're sick of the scandals. In my book, that's weird.

I have friends that I am certain must have voted Conservative provincially. They live in the 905 belt around Toronto and use the same "gotta be tough on crime and cut taxes" language that is typical of most 905ers. I would have bet money that they would vote Conservative federally. You could have knocked me over with a feather when they told me they're voting NDP. The reason? They're sick of both the major parties. What's up with that?

I used to think of myself as a strong NDPer, but in my riding, the Liberals fielded by far the best candidate. The same thing happened in the provincial elections. So, for the second time in my life, I am voting Liberal.

Have you decided who you're going to vote for yet?
What about your friends?
What do you think the final result will be?

I'm predicting a Liberal minority.

 

Hi Lew,

Thanks for the Canada Day wishes. Happy July 4th to all of you Americans.

I am by no means an expert on the intricacies of the Canadian parliamentary system, but here is my view on things...

Yes, the current situation is precarious. Paul Martin and the Liberals would have to do a lot of vote scrounging votes in order to get bills passed in Parliament. In addition, at any time, an opposing party could introduce a motion of "no-confidence". If such a vote were to succeed, then the Governor General would have to dissolve Parliament and call a new election.

At the moment, forming a coalition would be tricky. As you probably know, there are several players in Canadian elections of late. The Liberals are kind of like Democrats, I suppose, although their policies often move around the political spectrum a bit. (Lately, their language has been socially liberal, but fiscally conservative). The NDP is a bit left of the Liberals. The Conservatives are a bit like Republicans lite. The Bloc Quebecois is a strongly regionalist (some say separatist) party. One independent was also elected. I don't know much about him.

I just can't see the Liberals making a formal coalition with the Conservative Party, their strongest and most forceful opponent in the election, nor the Bloc. The party with which the Liberals have the most affinity is the NDP. The total of Liberal and NDP seats is 154. This is precisely half of the 308 seats in Parliament.

However, the results in a couple of ridings were very close -- less than 50 votes. In these cases, an automatic judicial recount is required. In addition, folks in other ridings have the right to try to get a judge to agree to a recount -- if they have evidence of irregularities in the voting process.

I imagine that Paul Martin and the Liberals are awaiting the results of these recounts before deciding how to proceed. As Parliament will not begin sitting again until some time in the fall, good ol' Paul and the Liberals have a bit of time to ponder their options and strategies.

Once the house begins sitting, you might think that the opposition would be tempted to present a no-confidence vote and force a new election as soon as possible. They probably won't, however. In the past, forcing a new election quickly has been an unpopular move with the Canadian public. Most folks think elections are annoying and expensive and they really don't want to have to endure two of them in quick succession. Voters will expect all parties to try and work together -- at least for a while.

 

Yep, I'm with you Frank. I give it a year or so.

The Conservatives did a good job of raising their credibility in recent months. If Stephen Harper can continue to protray an air of quiet dignity and professionalism, and if he can persuade his party's few loose cannons to keep quiet, then the Conservatives stand a good chance of improving their result next time.

In this past, I didn't think the Bloc mattered much. I was naive, perhaps. But in this past election, it really got me mad that they had about 11% of the national popular vote and yet managed to get 54 seats. (Compare that to the NDP who had about 16% of the popular vote and got only 20 seats). In the province of Quebec alone, the Bloc got 49% of the popular vote, yet something like 3/4 of all Quebec seats.

Usually with results like this, I try to think logically and tell myself that this is how things work in first-past-the-post systems. I try to remind myself that in a future election, the result could be very different.

But this time, I do not know, I just felt really mad about it all. Frustrated, really.

I'm also sad that the Green Party went to the trouble of fielding candidates in all ridings and got something like 3% of the popular vote, yet not a single seat. I don't vote Green (their social and fiscal platforms seem unsophisticated to me), but I think they deserve a place in the House. They have some interesting ideas.

I tell ya, I am getting really interested in the idea of adding a proportional representation element to our system. But I can't picture how it would work.