CARB's new report on hydrogen stations and fuel cell vehicles

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/ab8/ab8_report_2015.pdf

Highlights

No surprises at the beginning, other than not looking at current problems and reassessing what operational means. It should mean that you can drive up to a public station and wait less than 2 hours to fill. Current problems mean some of those 44, will slip into 2016. I've seen estimates of 20 operational stations this year. Its not surprising that auto manufacturers want taxpayers to increase spending on hydrogen stations, but it would be surprising if they actually sold or leased the cars that would require more than $20M/years on stations. As such I would push downward the manufacturing estimate to comply with the amount of stations tax payers are willing to fund, not assume the state and federal government will come up with more money. One way to make sure hydrogen demand doesn't outstrip supply is to actually charge for the hydrogen and use some of that money to maintain the stations, so you can build more with the budget. How many cars is that?

CARB has allocated $100M just to spend on hydrogen infrastructure 2017 through 2021 but don't think that is enough to go from 51 stations to enough to support 34,000 cars. In 2009 carb thought 100 stations would support over 50,000 fcv and thought they would be here in 2017, I think they were lowballing the stations needed but iyou should have 86 stations in 2021 (2015 carb estimate down from 100 in 2020 from the 2014 carb estimate). Toyota says 68 stations can support 10,000 fcv in 2017, carb 51 13,500 in 2016. Maybe 86 can only support 15,000 cars, idk, but we should know a lot more by the end of 2018,

All in all I find the new report good stuff, with more realistic information included. CARB still paints a rosy scenario, but includes the current numbers for those with other opinions to assess.




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Let's assume the average volt travels 14,000 miles per year and 63% are electric (I can't remember the real numbers but these are close). The average volt charges more than once a day, but there are those with very low electric miles bring down the average. Multiplying out I find 26,000 gen I volts are needed to have as many electric miles if all those kg were produced electricly and provided 67 m/kg. Gen II volts should get a higher percentage of electric miles, and use less gas.

Gen I volt has sold 77,000 copies in the US through june, and has less than 5000 to sell before gen II.

The report said that stations were more expensive than they had estimated. Like most government organizations I expect more cost over runs, not lower than expected prices. These stations may help make lower priced stations in 2030, but you don't need 86 of them to do that.

Demand is a fickle beast. What went up was manufacturers estimates of potential leases in the period 2018-2021. These were partially based on 100 stations in 2020 (versus now 86 in 2021) and the probable increased subsidies versus current law past 2017. Stations are a limiting item, and unless the manufacturers step up to produce more stations, so far they have only loaned money, or tax payers increase spending over the $20M/year fees currently levied, the demand should fall short of these manufacturers estimates. I too like the yearly poll, as it is much better than the previous estimates of millions of potential cars on the road, and the oil companies building all the needed stations because they thought they could profit.

In July 2017 the manufacturers will again show estimates for 2020 and 2023, and there should be a lot more clarity. By then the growing pains of stations shut down for weeks should be over, and we should have a better handle of dollars per station, and estimated operating and maintenance expenses. I believe Toyota will have most of the 3000 mirai on California roads by then as its safety waiver expires, and it may have to wait for a new waiver or redesign before more sales can commence. The clarity will have also joined the mirai and tucson fuel cell.