1. Attachments are working again! Check out this thread for more details and to report any other bugs.

Climate Change Data Error

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by fshagan, Aug 11, 2007.

  1. fshagan

    fshagan Senior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2005
    1,766
    4
    0
    Location:
    Noneofyourbusiness, CA
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    Many of you have seen the pictures of the ground temperature stations used for data collection, and the violations that have gone unreported to either NASA or other governmental agencies (incinerators next to them, A/C units, paved areas added adjacent to them, obviously moved sensors, etc.) Now, Steve McIntyre of Toronto has "reverse engineered" the GISS data (NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies) and found an error (NASA will not release the program source code used to crunch the numbers, perhaps for legal reasons).

    His site, http://www.ClimateAudit.org is down, some say due to a DOS attack, and others say just due to the increase in traffic due to the discovery of the error. Here's some info on what he found from http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/:

    Science is self-correcting, and the process of refining the numbers like this is a sign of a healthy scientific process. More attention to the integrity of the data should help us make intelligent decisions regarding whether or not global warming is occurring, and if it is, if it is caused by man, and if man causes it, what can be done to reverse it.
     
  2. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2005
    2,492
    245
    0
    Location:
    WA
    Vehicle:
    2005 Prius
    Fascinating. I bet this won't get ANY play in the popular press, since it's not the "sky is falling" type of global warming story they like to beat us over the heads with.

    I had trouble linking through on your links, so perhaps you are right - Steve is being attacked by a DOS. Perhaps it should be called a DOT (Denial Of Truth) attack.

    NASA not releasing the data is beginning to smell like Mann's now discredited "hockey stick" saga. Steve destroyed Mann's hockey stick all the while Mann refused to release the source data. What kind of science is this? I thought reproducibility was a cornerstone of the scientific method. Perhaps it is unless you have an agenda to push.

    For anyone interested in some of the other problems with surface temperature measurement sites, see this.

    Hopefully the turds presumably attacking Steve's site won't attack Pielke's.
     
  3. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2005
    2,492
    245
    0
    Location:
    WA
    Vehicle:
    2005 Prius
    Here BTW, is one of the images that apparently started the ball rolling with respect to questions about the CONUS temperature stations.

    Apparently there was a 4 degree C jump in temperature at this station in 1999 - right when the AC units were installed.
     
  4. Stev0

    Stev0 Honorary Hong Kong Cavalier

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2006
    7,201
    1,073
    0
    Location:
    Northampton, MA
    Vehicle:
    2022 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    Now someone explain to me who's faking the glaciers and polar ice caps melting?
     
  5. MarinJohn

    MarinJohn Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2004
    3,945
    304
    0
    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Stev0 @ Aug 11 2007, 07:06 AM) [snapback]493966[/snapback]</div>
    It's all Clinton's fault!!!
     
  6. airportkid

    airportkid Will Fly For Food

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2005
    2,191
    538
    0
    Location:
    San Francisco Bay Area CA
    Vehicle:
    2005 Prius
    Smoke is pouring out of No. 3 engine, its power is starting to falter, the cabin is getting uncomfortably hot and the flight crew is starting to sweat, but the captain shrugs and points to the oil temperature gauge, the only gauge to No. 3 that isn't pegged or dying, which indicates a mild rise but is still solidly in the green, and says "Nothing to worry about; I know the entire instrument panel seems to indicate the engine's afire, but look, the oil temp reads good, so there can't be anything really bad happening to that engine. Relax."

    MB
     
  7. Devil's Advocate

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2005
    922
    13
    1
    Location:
    Las Vegas, Nevada
    Vehicle:
    2005 Prius
    When the galcial model considers something other than temperature i let you know why the glaciers are retreating. All glaciers melt, all the time, its just that when they expand (or don't shrink) they are actually just getting more snow. Maybe the rain/snow pattern over these glaciers have changed causing less snow to fall on them and for that snow to fall elsewhere? Since GW models don't consider percipitation, i wonder.

    I am glad that the GW crowd wasn't around during the las ice age since if they were I would have grown up under a few hundred feet of ice in northern Ohio!!

    I wonder what SUV's caused that ice to melt?
     
  8. Stev0

    Stev0 Honorary Hong Kong Cavalier

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2006
    7,201
    1,073
    0
    Location:
    Northampton, MA
    Vehicle:
    2022 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Devil's Advocate @ Aug 11 2007, 12:57 PM) [snapback]494014[/snapback]</div>
    *cough*

    *cough*

    "Oh, look! Our canary died in this mine! That's OK, canaries die all the time!"
     
  9. tballx

    tballx New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2007
    130
    0
    0
    Location:
    Edmonds
    Vehicle:
    2007 Prius
    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Devil's Advocate @ Aug 11 2007, 10:57 AM) [snapback]494014[/snapback]</div>
    The GW crowd? What a moronic ad hominem attack. Please wow us with your ability to marginalize those that don't agree with you by lumping them into a "group." All glaciers melt all of the time? Therefore by definition those that do not agree with you espouse that no glacier should melt any time? Every hear of the false dilemma error? GW models don't consider percipitation (sic)? Where do you get this stuff? Cite a published peer reviewed scholarly source or kindly go away.
     
  10. fshagan

    fshagan Senior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2005
    1,766
    4
    0
    Location:
    Noneofyourbusiness, CA
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    Science is science, and the ad hominem attacks and useless metaphors are hardly worthwhile.

    First, I could be wrong but I don't think the data is kept secret. The program they use to crunch the raw data is proprietary. So I suspect that NASA isn't releasing the source code for the program because its protected by copyright, and they can't release it. Steve's breakthrough came because he "reverse engineered" the results by looking at the source data, and discovered the Y2K error. I haven't heard this error explained, but I wonder if it was a simple "year zero" type of error in the math routines in the program?

    The other thing to keep in mind is that this affects only the ground station temperature measurements of the US, and not the world-wide numbers. There are some problems with that data, and my understanding is that they already add a fudge factor to the calculations to try and account for urban "hot spots" due to the increase in thermal mass like pavement and buildings. But they haven't been adjusting for incorrect installation of the temperature sensing equipment, including it being in shade part of the year, incinerators installed next to them, etc.

    If the solar-heat advocates are right, then we will see a cooling trend over the next ten years rather than a warming trend. If the climate change folks are right, we'll see a warming trend. Correcting the US data is an important step, and may shorten the amount of time we have to wait to see if we are in a warming or cooling trend.
     
  11. JimN

    JimN Let the games begin!

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2006
    7,028
    1,116
    0
    Location:
    South Jersey
    Vehicle:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    V
    I predict most will agree that there is a problem only after Hawaii disappears and coastal states include Nevada and Pennsylvania. Does it really matter if it is entirely natural or aggravated by civilization? The end result is going to be the same.
     
  12. scargi01

    scargi01 Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2007
    784
    57
    0
    Location:
    Missouri
    Vehicle:
    2005 Prius
    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(JimN @ Aug 11 2007, 05:07 PM) [snapback]494077[/snapback]</div>
    It matters because if the cause of the warming is not man then we should spend the money on dealing with the effects of warming rather than on trying to reduce our impact.
     
  13. EricGo

    EricGo New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2005
    1,805
    0
    0
    Location:
    Albuquerque, NM (SouthWest US)
    Well, as long as you are trying to play the objective thinking person, head over to realclimate.org and read some real science discussion.
     
  14. Mirza

    Mirza New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2004
    898
    0
    0
  15. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2006
    19,011
    4,081
    50
    Location:
    Grass Valley, CA.
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(05_SilverPri @ Aug 11 2007, 03:46 PM) [snapback]494093[/snapback]</div>
    Actually nearly all of the efforts used to reduce impact have huge returns of investment regarding health, economy, and overall sustainability. Try again :)
     
  16. Alric

    Alric New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    1,526
    87
    0
    Vehicle:
    2007 Prius
    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(F8L @ Aug 11 2007, 08:31 PM) [snapback]494143[/snapback]</div>
    And even if its in part due to a natural process, the amount of greenhouse gases we pump to the atmosphere would have to greatly exacerbate the process.
     
  17. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2006
    19,011
    4,081
    50
    Location:
    Grass Valley, CA.
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Alric @ Aug 11 2007, 06:50 PM) [snapback]494152[/snapback]</div>
    Especially when coupled with a degradation of the processes that help to cycle GHGs. Like reaching a bifurcation point, we will see a complete restructuring before too long or the network will collapse. ;)
     
  18. Wildkow

    Wildkow New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2006
    5,270
    37
    36
    Vehicle:
    2006 Prius
    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Alric @ Aug 11 2007, 06:50 PM) [snapback]494152[/snapback]</div>
    What is the amount of greenhouse gases we (Humans) pump into the atmosphere as compared to other natural processes?

    Wildkow

    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(fshagan @ Aug 11 2007, 12:11 PM) [snapback]494026[/snapback]</div>
    1) Non-disclosure agreement.
    2) If this fellow reversed-engineered someone’s computer program he broke the law but if it’s just data he’s probably ok.
    3) I could be wrong.

    Wildkow
     
  19. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2006
    19,011
    4,081
    50
    Location:
    Grass Valley, CA.
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Wildkow @ Aug 11 2007, 07:19 PM) [snapback]494164[/snapback]</div>
    "Burning fossil fuels, making cement, burning forests and grasslands, and other human activities release nearly 30 billion tons of CO2 every year, on average, containing some 8 billion tons of carbon. (Burning Fossil Fuels 49%, Industrrial Processes 24%, Deforestation 14%, Agriculture 13% source ~ World Resources Institute). About 3 billion tons of this excess carbon is taken up by terrestrial ecosystems, and around 2 billion tons are absorbed by the oceans, leaving an annual atmospheric increase of some 3 billion tons per year. If current trens continue, CO2 concentrations could reach about 500ppm (appraoching twice the preindustrial level of 280ppm) by the end of the twenty-first century."

    Estimated Fluxes of Pollutants and Trace Gases to the Atmosphere In million metric tons/yr.

    Species.........................Natural..........Anthropogenic
    CO2........................................370,000........29,600
    CH4.........................................155..............350
    CO...........................................1,580...........930
    NMHC (nonmethane hydrocarbon)..860...........92
    NOx..........................................90................140
    SO2..........................................35.................79
    SPM (suspended particles)...........583...............362

    Cited from "Environmental Science - A Global Concern. 8th Edition (William Cunningham, Mary Ann Cunningham, Barbara Saigo)

    I urge you to read the Millenium Ecosystem Assement Report to see how our global ecosystems are fairing and then refer back to this information and try to realize how we are exacerbating the problem by destroying the very systems that we need to help us relieve this problem.
     
  20. scargi01

    scargi01 Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2007
    784
    57
    0
    Location:
    Missouri
    Vehicle:
    2005 Prius
    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(F8L @ Aug 11 2007, 08:31 PM) [snapback]494143[/snapback]</div>
    If the returns are so great then how come it isn't happening on its own already?