Crude oil down to $10-$25 is still possible

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by wjtracy, Apr 22, 2017.

  1. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2006
    10,913
    3,383
    1
    Location:
    Northern VA (NoVA)
    Vehicle:
    2006 Prius
    Gary Shilling is my economics guru and he is still talking crude oil could go down to $10-$25. Based in part on Shilling, I correctly predicted $2 gaso Feb_2016 but I missed on $1 gaso for Feb_2017, because the OPEC production cut back action temporarily increased crude oil value. But I am still predicting $1 gaso at some point (Feb_2018?)...we obviously do not know exact timing, just general trend still could be downward price pressure.

    See 4:40 mark

    Loonie to fall to 50 cents: Gary Shilling - Video - BNN

    also interesting comment:
    "if you want to talk global Milk trade, you gotta talk about New Zealand" at 3:26
     
    #1 wjtracy, Apr 22, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2017
  2. JimN

    JimN Let the games begin!

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2006
    7,028
    1,109
    0
    Location:
    South Jersey
    Vehicle:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    V
    The trend is your friend until the end.

    I can't see the video. Increased US rig count tempered cuts in the Middle East. OPEC and the other nonaligned producers aren't going to be able to squash domestic output and there will be a point where they aren't going to be willing to give the product away. I believe we've found a bottom and it will hold at current levels.

    I'm still waiting for "The Experts" that were saying prices would return to $100 in 2017 to be vindicated. For those who believe in $10-$25 oil by January 19, 2018 or June 15, 2018 what's the trade?
     
  3. Rmay635703

    Rmay635703 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2016
    1,628
    1,053
    0
    Location:
    Somewhere in Wisconsin
    Vehicle:
    2013 Chevy Volt
    Model:
    N/A
    Oil prices aren't going to be stable for the next hundred years let alone the next 5, so our desire to waste as much as possible will have predictable yet still unfortunate consequences.
     
    RCO likes this.
  4. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2006
    10,913
    3,383
    1
    Location:
    Northern VA (NoVA)
    Vehicle:
    2006 Prius
    Although I think energy prices will be low (good for consumer), thus I am a bear on fossil fuel energy stocks.
    I watched a lot of people "lose their shirts" on coal and nat gas as prices plunged. Economist Gary Shilling publishes each year (with extensive monthly updates) his investment themes. So he is the one to ask (or get his Newsletter for $300) but I think he removed North America energy from his recommended investment list a few years ago (not because he likes EV's, just he sees fracking is wiping out the OPEC cartel and its ability to control prices long term).
     
  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    90,050
    40,399
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    aren't the saudi's talking about going public? that could be a game changer.
     
    RCO likes this.
  6. Rmay635703

    Rmay635703 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2016
    1,628
    1,053
    0
    Location:
    Somewhere in Wisconsin
    Vehicle:
    2013 Chevy Volt
    Model:
    N/A
    I have long believed that Reagans "oil market" should be disbanded, it is an unnecessary and destructive layer between the producer and end user.

    That said making decisions believing because energy prices will be "low" for a few years "that's like forever" is foolhardy at best.

    The investment and bust process only aggravates the problem further
     
  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    90,050
    40,399
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    it's almost like believing the stock market or housing bubble will never burst. or interest rates will never go to 18% again.
     
    RCO likes this.
Loading...