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Featured Dashboard June 2018 summary

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, Jul 13, 2018.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Another excellent Dashboard report by Jeff Cobb's Hybridcars:
    https://www.hybridcars.com/june-2018-hybrid-cars-sales-dashboard/

    model 06/15/18 05/15/18 04/15/18 03/15/18
    1 Model 3 5500 6300 3800 3680
    2 Prius Liftback 4786 4760 3830 4064
    3 Transit Diesel 4737 5430 4205 4611
    4 Fusion Hybrid 4683 4597 3120 4646
    5 RAV4 3866 4268 3790 4128
    6 Niro Hybrid 2439 2590 2220 2251
    7 Prius Prime 2237 2924 2626 2922
    8 Accord Hybrid 2206 2591 626 135
    9 Camry Hybrid 2040 2001 1809 2125
    10 Volt 1601 1675 1400 1782
    11 Clarity Plug In 1445 1639 1049 1061
    12 RX 400 / 450 h 1392 1359 832 965
    13 Leaf 1367 1576 1171 1500
    14 Highlander Hybrid 1361 1687 1373 1401
    15 Ioniq Hybrid 1316 1257 1568 1391
    16 Bolt EV 1313 1125 1300 1774
    17 Ram Pickup Diesel 1311 2710 3043 2381
    18 Model X 1300 1500 1000 2500
    19 Model S 1000 1500 1200 3200
    20 5-Series Plug in 942 729 518 689
    21 Avalon Hybrid 872 698 677 828
    22 C-Max Hybrid 831 973 727 890
    23 NX Hybrid 826 762 604 735
    24 Sierra Hybrid 784 564 385 474
    25 Prius C 740 818 714 814
    26 Colorado Diesel 702 754 713 741
    27 Fusion Energi 604 740 742 782
    28 Pacifica 600 400 300 262
    29 i3 580 424 503 992
    30 Sonata 509 471 393 562
    31 500e 446 106 117 132
    32 MKZ 416 446 346 359
    33 ES Hybrid 402 389 334 388
    34 Outlander Plug In 390 297 273 373
    35 Rogue Hybrid 370 384 233 422
    36 X5 321 499 563 627
    37 X5 Diesel 300 268 231 324
    38 Canyon Diesel 282 304 272 273
    39 Niro Plug In 281 218 120 227
    40 Insight 274
    41 A3 Plug In 238 267 189 214
    42 Range Rover Sport 229 209 179 320
    43 XC60 Plug In 226 214 141 167
    44 Malibu Hybrid 223 291 242 383
    45 Optima Hybrid 218 283 269 343
    46 Countryman Plug In 211 163 106 74
    47 MDX Hybrid 202 237 268 178
    48 C350We Plug-in Hybrid 176 166 158 208
    49 Panamera S E-Hybrid 168 275 336 49
    50 Terrain Diesel 162 163 290 527
    51 Cruze Diesel 158 234 159 140
    52 Ioniq Plug In 143 217 180 218
    53 3-Series Plug in 138 150 166 202
    54 Lacrosse Hybrid 138 135 256 558
    55 XC90 Plug In 133 126 89 93
    56 Clarity BEV 126 37 7 48
    57 3-Series Diesel 123 111 125 162
    58 Range Rover 120 100 100 169
    59 Q5 Diesel 109 108 111 190
    60 forTwo EV 109 95 80 103
    61 Mirai 103 102 76 83
    62 Range Rover Velar 94 107 81 159
    63 Touareg Diesel 91 113 112 166
    64 Optima Plug In 83 98 142 156
    65 Prius V 81 170 250 422
    66 GLE 550e Plug In Hybrid 75 83 93 181
    67 Promaster Van Diesel 70 41 28 25
    68 GLC 350e Hybrid 66 64 59 57
    69 Sonata Plug In 62 67 38 78
    70 Soul EV 57 133 152 157
    71 Focus EV 50 88 83 137
    72 F-Pace 50 57 51 106
    73 Q7 Diesel 49 52 47 104
    74 RLX Hybrid 47 79 68 67
    75 Ioniq EV 47 32 41 60
    76 i8 45 64 57 47
    77 XE 40 30 20 22
    78 LS 500h 40
    79 S90 Plug In 35 30 29 52
    80 e-Golf 32 76 128 164
    81 5-Series Diesel 32 26 21 25
    82 A6 Diesel 27 48 42 48
    83 Q50 Hybrid 26 29 19 51
    84 Cayenne Diesel 23 23 21 48
    85 CT6 18 42 42 17
    86 7-Series Plug in 16 17 60 31
    87 XF 16 8 4 18
    88 Cayenne S E-Hybrid 12 59 265 197
    89 A8 Diesel 12 15 15 21
    90 Jetta Diesel 11 19 18 29
    91 LC 500h 11 11 10 13
    92 A7 Diesel 8 26 27 40
    93 S550 Plug In 7 7 9 11
    94 GS 450h 7 5 3 2
    95 C-Max Energi 6 18 57 105
    96 NSX Hybrid 6 15 5 16
    97 Golf Sportwagon Diesel 5 8 4 8
    98 Spark 5 1 0 0
    99 Clarity 4 30 156 121
    100 Q70 Hybrid 4 4 3 7
    101 Civic Hybrid 4 0 0 0
    102 Beetle Diesel 3 10 12 19
    103 Passat Diesel 3 9 5 7
    104 Golf Diesel 3 3 4 2
    105 CR-Z 3 1 5 8
    106 ELR 1
    107 Tucson 0 19 15 0
    108 B-Class Electric 0 3 7 33
    109 A3 Diesel 0 0 0 1
    110 CT200h 0 0 0 1
    111 GL-Class Diesel 0 0 0 0
    112 GLE-Class Diesel 0 0 0 0
    113 ML Class Diesel 0 0 0 2

    [​IMG]
    • Model 3 - Tesla reports sales quarterly and we have Tesla reporting ~5000 built in the last week of June but Hybridcars projects ~5500 which implies ~500 for the rest of June. This is the risk of estimating monthly production when only quarterly reports are given.
      • Tesla press release filed with SEC: tsla-ex991_6.htm

    Bob Wilson
     
    #1 bwilson4web, Jul 13, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2018
  2. telmo744

    telmo744 HSD fanatic

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    First month for the Insight. Welcome.
     
    #2 telmo744, Jul 13, 2018
  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    nice bump for the pacifica.
     
    #3 bisco, Jul 13, 2018
  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Group Total %
    1 Total Fuel Cell 107 0.01%
    2 Total Diesel 8770 0.57%
    3 Total PHEV 10280 0.67%
    4 Total BEV 11932 0.77%
    5 Total Hybrid 31123 2.02%
    6
    7 Total Efficient 62212 4.04%
    8
    9 Total Auto Sales 1540000 100.00%

    Bob Wilson
     
    #4 bwilson4web, Jul 13, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2018
  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    if we are up to 3.5% in ev's, that is good news.
     
    #5 bisco, Jul 13, 2018
  6. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Hybrid-cars is reporting sales, the cars actually getting into the hands of the owner, and Tesla is reporting production. The difference between them will show up in July/next quarter numbers.

    There is actually more diesels if the 2500+ class trucks and vans were counted. Still lower than hybrids in likely hood.
     
    #6 Trollbait, Jul 13, 2018
  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Another excellent Dashboard report by Jeff Cobb's Hybridcars:
    https://www.hybridcars.com/june-2018-hybrid-cars-sales-dashboard/

    model 06/15/18 05/15/18 04/15/18 03/15/18
    1 Model 3 5500 6300 3800 3680
    2 Model 3 (adj) 14289 8573 5715

    Because Tesla reports Model 3 sales on a quarterly basis, it is hard to understand the monthly production numbers. So I used a subset of a Fibonacci series, a type of exponential set, to model the effects of a learning curve and capital improvements. I used them to adjusted the Model 3 production numbers to make a reasonable guess of what the likely, monthly numbers were:
    • 2 - 20% * 28578 ~= 5715 (4/15/2018)
    • 3 - 30% * 28578 ~= 8573 (5/15/2018)
    • 5 - 50% * 28578 ~= 14289 (6/15/2018)
    The "Model 3 (adj)" row is my best guess of Model 3 production. If we take 14289 / 4 ~= 3572, this still allows the last week of June to have ~5,000 Model 3 produced. Others may guess differently but hopefully showing their work.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #7 bwilson4web, Jul 13, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2018
  8. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I didn't expect the model 3 to top the list until this month. They were building inventory in June to pass 200,000 this month to keep the full tax credit until the end of the year. Their website says that's just what they did, but inside evs said they deliveries passed last month, the difference, and hopefully this is true, that for the IRS registrations not deliveries are important, and this paperwork takes a little time, so the cap got passed this month, but more deliveries happened than we expected.

    Interesting take on what went wrong and right.
    Inside Tesla's Model 3 Production Odyssey – Bloomberg
    Part of the production problems came when preorders came in they reallized demand was going to be much higher, so they tried in many naive ways to get production up quickly. Pointed out by Musk himself, they tried for too much automation, the video points out that they tried to have the machines grab all the small parts, and human hands are better ;-) That is why toyota used a lot less automation at NUMMI than GM envisioned originally, and this cuts down on rework, which means labor/car is actually lower when you have humans do certain tasks. Machines look like they will be great doing things like building the battery packs, and tradtional car factory stuff like stamping, welding, inspecting, and painting. The other thing that I did not know is Tesla used its design engineers to design the manufacturing process, instead of the traditional TPS (toyota production system) of designing for manufacturing and having people with other skills design the process, then work with the designers to modify parts for easier manufacturing. That didn't work either because they have different skill sets, and the designers could have been working on the Y design instead of manufacturing. Tesla is small, so using the design engineers to help with manufacturing engineering was not bad, but they shouldn't have been in charge. Production estimates were also shown in the video, but here it is pulled out.

    How Many Tesla Model 3 Cars Have Been Made?
    We can expect 15,000-17,000 produced in July with things slowing at the end of the month to make adjustments, then over 20,000 in august if the adjustments work. I expect over 20,000 delivered this month given the June build up of inventory.
     
    #8 austingreen, Jul 13, 2018
    Zythryn likes this.
  9. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    With no hybridcars.com report for July, and none yet for August, has hybridcars stopped producing this report?
     
    #9 Zythryn, Sep 12, 2018
  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    None. My understanding is Jeff Cobb is no longer leading Hybridcars.com. Perhaps @Tideland Prius might have more insights.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #10 bwilson4web, Sep 12, 2018
  11. Tideland Prius

    Tideland Prius Moderator of the North
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    I was unaware of Jeff's departure. He is here on PriusChat. Maybe he'll chime in as to who took over hybridcars.com.
     
    #11 Tideland Prius, Sep 12, 2018
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