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Death Rates in Iraq and Here

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by dbermanmd, Nov 22, 2006.

  1. dbermanmd

    dbermanmd New Member

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    The United Nations said Wednesday that 3,709 Iraqi civilians were killed in October, the highest monthly toll since the March 2003 U.S. invasion and another sign of the severity of Iraq's sectarian bloodbath.

    That compares to an estimated 3,500 killed in July. If 3,709 people were murdered in October, that translates to a rate of 171 per 100,000. That is a high rate of violent death. But, for purposes of comparison, the murder rate in Washington, D.C. in 1991 was 80 per 100,000. So the rate of violence in Iraq today is just over double the rate in the District during the first Bush administration. I don't recall anyone describing conditions in Washington in the early 90s as a "bloodbath."

    .... the murder rate in Iraq outside of Baghdad is about the same as American cities like Chicago, Philadelphia and Milwaukee.
     
  2. VinceDee

    VinceDee Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(dbermanmd @ Nov 22 2006, 10:46 AM) [snapback]353111[/snapback]</div>
    Yes, it appears you're right, dbermanmd, and I guess if the murder rates aren't really that bad then we can go ahead and leave Iraq, then.

    Vince
     
  3. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(VinceDee @ Nov 22 2006, 02:49 PM) [snapback]353114[/snapback]</div>
    Yes ... the all or nothing approach. Always a winner. When Sadam Husain was in charge, we will never know how many civilians were smoked per month / tortured per month. Sure would be easier if we went back to the 'head in sand' approach.
     
  4. dbermanmd

    dbermanmd New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(VinceDee @ Nov 22 2006, 01:49 PM) [snapback]353114[/snapback]</div>
    I did not say the death rates were not bad - but I am tired of hearing about each and every death like its a bloodbath there. Fact is - it is not as bad as it is being protrayed. I also think if we leave - the real bloodbath will start.

    I have a thought that might shock you. I am in favor of leaving Iraq and maintaining a much much smaller force - under one condition and it has nothing to do with Iraq.......

    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(hill @ Nov 22 2006, 02:00 PM) [snapback]353121[/snapback]</div>
    We tried that already with little success - like prior to 9/11/01
     
  5. Alric

    Alric New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(dbermanmd @ Nov 22 2006, 02:46 PM) [snapback]353111[/snapback]</div>
    hahahhaha...you are comparing a month in Baghdad with a year here!
     
  6. tleonhar

    tleonhar Senior Member

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    Just so we're on the same page. Am I correct, your figures for Bagdad are for October alone, one month, and your figures for DC in 91 are for the year? Just want to mack sure I'm reading this right...





    Edit: Oops, I see Alric beat me to it...
     
  7. VinceDee

    VinceDee Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Alric @ Nov 22 2006, 11:25 AM) [snapback]353138[/snapback]</div>
    oohhh, snap!

    Any response, dbermanmd?

    Vince
     
  8. dbermanmd

    dbermanmd New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(VinceDee @ Nov 22 2006, 02:42 PM) [snapback]353151[/snapback]</div>
    The snap would have been if they used the month with the fewest deaths, NOT the month the GREATEST number of deaths - SNAP! They could have even averaged them to make it that much better than taking the greatest number - SNAP.

    And x the number of months we have been fighting and calculate how many Iraqi's died vs how many Saddam slaughtered per month - SNAP. And they are being killed by there "own" people - NOT Americans - SNAP. So calculate how many Iraqi's are alive today because we are in Iraq instead of keeping our heads in the sand - SNAP SNAP.
     
  9. Alric

    Alric New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(dbermanmd @ Nov 22 2006, 04:06 PM) [snapback]353161[/snapback]</div>
    No snap. More like wet noodle. I bet the the month with least deaths in Baghdad will still be higher than a whole year in a US city.
     
  10. dbermanmd

    dbermanmd New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Alric @ Nov 22 2006, 03:36 PM) [snapback]353179[/snapback]</div>
    And who said pessisism was dead and buried - did you get all the plays on words and everything here?? And the figure was for Iraq not Baghdad.
     
  11. burritos

    burritos Senior Member

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    So if a terrorist nuclear bomb kills 100,000 americans, how will that affect the overall mortality rate in the US? I'd surmise it'd make a nominal increase percentage-wise.
     
  12. dbermanmd

    dbermanmd New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(burritos @ Nov 22 2006, 03:40 PM) [snapback]353184[/snapback]</div>
    ??????????????

    Mortality rates from what? A terror attack??? How does that affect mortality rates? Please note the death rates were weighted per 100,000 humans
     
  13. Sufferin' Prius Envy

    Sufferin' Prius Envy Platinum Member

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  14. Alric

    Alric New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Sufferin' Prius Envy @ Nov 22 2006, 05:02 PM) [snapback]353199[/snapback]</div>
    From CNN:

    "The report said 7,054 civilians were killed violently in September and October in Iraq, with almost 5,000 in Baghdad alone"

    So let's say 2,500 in one month with a population of 7,000,000. That's 35 per 100,000 in a month for 428 per 100,000 in a year in Baghdad alone.

    D.C. is 80/100k/year
    Baghdad is 428/100k/year

    What murder rate is acceptable for you? I don't know. Neither is acceptable to me but the problem is that we are direclty responsible for the latter.
     
  15. burritos

    burritos Senior Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(dbermanmd @ Nov 22 2006, 03:43 PM) [snapback]353186[/snapback]</div>
    Let's say hypothetically, you take in the year 2006 in the USA

    a)mortality rate= total number deaths(natural causes)/total number of people.

    now in scenario with terrorist attack
    b)mortality rate= total number deaths(natural causes)+100,000(from an attack somewhere in the USA)

    What is the statistical difference between the mortality rate and a vs b? There will be a difference, but it's small at best. My point is even though there is not much of a statistical difference between your comparison of the murder rates of urban city usa and the rate of death in Iraq, the cause of death certainly can be perceived as immoral to those who are the victims of the war. Just as a 100,000 additional deaths in america would be just a statistical blip, it would be viewed as an such by the victims.
     
  16. EricGo

    EricGo New Member

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    Only the doberman can err about 1000% in his numbers, and not have his opinions fazed one bit when he is corrected.

    Hilarious
     
  17. MarinJohn

    MarinJohn Senior Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Alric @ Nov 22 2006, 01:36 PM) [snapback]353179[/snapback]</div>
    You should know better than to say this to an irrational person who compares 1 mo vs. 1 yr. and expects this to go unnoticed.
    ...than a US city...he will choose to argue back something like Jacksonburg, OH or Shingle Springs, PA to prove your point is technically incorrect even tho a normal reader will take your point in context to meaning and move on. Must be very careful when dealing with irrational people.
     
  18. dragonfly

    dragonfly New Member

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  19. Stev0

    Stev0 Honorary Hong Kong Cavalier

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Dragonfly @ Nov 27 2006, 04:10 PM) [snapback]354543[/snapback]</div>
    What?!? You expect a Neocon to have an original thought? We must all walk lock-step in what orders came from Rove via Bully Bill and Rush, parroting the line of the day, even when that line has been proven false.
     
  20. fshagan

    fshagan Senior Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(dbermanmd @ Nov 22 2006, 10:46 AM) [snapback]353111[/snapback]</div>
    Does the UN rate include all murders? Or just the sectarian violence attributed to the centuries old hatred between the Shia and Sunni Muslims?

    Stats like this are rarely helpful. I heard one that I thought was nonsensical this weekend: we have been in Iraq longer than WWII. Well, in one respect you could say that ... but not when you consider the "reconstruction" period after the fall of the German government. In Iraq, we ran over their military in very short order, and for the last two+ years have been engaged in what took us nearly 10 years in Germany: vanquishing an insurgency. Then we stayed another 40 years or so.