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Defeat in Iraq + NY Times Editorial

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by dbermanmd, Jun 8, 2007.

  1. dbermanmd

    dbermanmd New Member

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    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/07/opinion/...nyt&emc=rss

    Above is a must read editorial from the NY Times.

    What will be the consequences if we quit Iraq? I ask you because there has been NO discussion about this in this country - by the politicians, the press, the people. It is vital to hash this out if we are contemplating leaving Iraq.
     
  2. efusco

    efusco Moderator Emeritus
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    Don't have time to read the article at the moment, but I certainly can't disagree with your last paragraph. There has been some discussion, but not enough.

    My only comment is that it has to be weighed against the consequences of staying there. Neither option has a happy outcome.
     
  3. patrickindallas

    patrickindallas Shire rat

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    Saying that there has been 'NO discussion' is hyperbole.

    The effects of withdrawal are considered on a daily basis
    by anyone of at least average intelligence.

    We stay: Many Iraqis die.
    We go: Many Iraqis die.

    efusco's right. There is no happy outcome.

    Genocide will probably be the result, and all American
    citizens will have more blood on their hands.
     
  4. dbermanmd

    dbermanmd New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(patrickindallas @ Jun 8 2007, 08:53 AM) [snapback]457949[/snapback]</div>

    i would add the following if we leave iraq too early:

    1. mass genocide will occur that would make the current body count look like a day in the park
    2. Iran moves in full force into Iraq
    3. Iran feels emboldened to continue its nuclear program and other support mechanisms for terror including hezbollah, islamic jihad, etc
    4. Turkey feels less restraint towards moving in on the kurds in iraq
    5. the kurds will become more involved in violence in either self-defense or aggression wanting a separate state for themselves.
    6. it will embolden other terror groups around the world - especially those in the middle east - especially groups like hezbollah and hamas
    7. it will be a pronouncement to the world that the US no longer feels that democracy and freedom are woth fighting for for others - imagine when they look at the stats over the past four years: 170,000 Americans killed in auto accidents, 3,500 KIA in Iraq - we still drive we stop fighting.
    8. it will give terror a base to operate out using the relative safety of national borders to plot and plan - kinda like germany in the 1930's, afghanistan prior to 2003, iran now.
    9. neighboring countries will feel and experience greater threats to their own security like saudia arabia - what will need to be done to protect them at that point?
    10. supply of oil becomes more controlled by bad guys who could use that weapon easier than force as a means to an end and to finance their evil ways.

    i am sure there are more , but gotta get back to work - patients are sleeping :D
     
  5. KMO

    KMO Senior Member

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    Shame all the possible problems of extricating yourself didn't occur to you before smashing up Iraq in the first place, eh? :lol:

    Oddly enough, many of us could immediately visualise what a mess invasion would create, so we opposed it from the start.

    Not to mention being firmly aware of your point 10, that a large part of it was just about securing oil supplies.
     
  6. dbermanmd

    dbermanmd New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(KMO @ Jun 8 2007, 11:21 AM) [snapback]458019[/snapback]</div>
    very good
    now what do you say about us leaving too early - given your ability to see into the future prior to us invading iraq - what do you think would happen if we leave too early

    thanks
     
  7. efusco

    efusco Moderator Emeritus
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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(dbermanmd @ Jun 8 2007, 09:51 AM) [snapback]458005[/snapback]</div>
    I don't think so, mass civil unrest, yes, but genocide is an organized plan of eliminating a particular race/class. I don't see that, the Sunni, Kurds, and Shia are all capable of defending themselves to greater or lesser degrees. Civil war is ongoing now, it will escalate undoubtedly, but I don't see where you feel the 'genocide' would evolve from...perhaps it's a matter of semantics.


    No way...they know the US wouldn't allow that. That's a completely different issue than the mercurial insurgent issues going on. Iran's not that stupid and we'd be back in a second to stop anything of that sort.

    They're already going ahead at full speed with no indication that our presence in Iraq is affecting that in any way. That needs to be dealt with but there's no connection b/w that and Iraq.

    Probably an issue I need to learn more about, but my impression has been that Turkey really no longer has an interest in the Kurds. In any case, it's a seperate issue and we'd likely take action since it would be an organized aggression by a nation.

    Maybe in a few years, but I see no reason to believe that anything is immenent...they've been kept out of things thus far. Granting them statehood, IMO, simplifies the entire complicated situation in Iraq. I know it's not that simple, but getting the 3 factions to quit killing each other seems like a good idea to me.

    Probably, and this I think you should have listed #1 and it's the thing I'm struggling with the most. Yet it seems they already feel emboldened.
    I think the world has a little more intelligence than you give them credit for.

    Maybe...See my reply to #6 above. The question is whether we can prevent that or only delay it at the cost of US lives by staying. I suspect we'd only delay the inevitable at cost to our own.

    Well now...that's interesting. I think this is a good reason to procede with withdrawl as it will force those countries to take action against the terrorists they're harboring and funding and get that region to organize to resist the threats that the terrorist are to them.
    so, we need to stop using it. And they don't seem to have much in the way of a problem getting funding right now anyway.
     
  8. SomervillePrius

    SomervillePrius New Member

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    I agree 100% with the article.

    This is why a country should NEVER rush to war based on loose pretenses. This is why when you go to war you make sure you have enough man power to win (fast).

    All problems raised in the article was clearly articulated before the war by people oppsing the war and the approach. The fact that we had leadership that didn't listen should scare us. The fact that our military accepted the bad plans forced upon them should scare us. The fact that the people hired to be experts turned out the be hoaxes should scare us. Who has the know-how to run this war?

    We are now in a no-win situation and it will get worse. We have been forced to become the weak horse by our inept and rushed actions. If we want to be anything else we will need to sacrifice A LOT more human life and resources. No one currently have the political power to do so.

    No one can seriously have confidence in our current leadership so until we change them we're treading water in Iraq. No leader in the current running field for president (left or right) will have enough political power to "do the right thing" (meaning putting enough forces/resources on the ground).

    So yeah I agree with the article. I have done so for a long time. I though when we went in to the war that our leaders or at least military understood the risks too. Clearly they did not or we would have used enough resources to being with.

    I just don't see where we will get leaders qualified enough to deal with this problem.
     
  9. dbermanmd

    dbermanmd New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(efusco @ Jun 8 2007, 01:13 PM) [snapback]458117[/snapback]</div>
    we will agree to disagree. i think the level of murder will be unprecedented - 2 million cambodians died on the periphery of us leaving vietnam - here you will have no controlling authoirty if we leave to stem the violence - it will be a killing fields on steroids - perpetrated by people willing to die themselves to kill others - something the pol pot and his henchmen were unwilling to do - and it will spread beyond iraqs borders into turkey.

    lets say that starts to happen - would you be willing to go back in to prevent genocide or would you let them have at it?

    have a nice weekend my good doctor
     
  10. efusco

    efusco Moderator Emeritus
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    The "going back" would depend upon a more coherent, clear cut plan of what we'd do and how we'd accomplish it....you know, what we didn't do before going into Iraq.
     
  11. ozyran

    ozyran New Member

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    You know, if all that rang true about Iran, I can't help but wonder: would Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has it in BAD for the country of Israel and I imagine that if he seized control in Iraq, that he would be so emboldened to launch a full-on assault against Israel.

    Now, I'm not trying to make this a thread about anti-Sematism. That's not what this is about at all. I'm merely making the point that based on his hatred of Israel alone, we could be looking at not only the potential for a massive-scale disaster in Iraq; we could be looking at genocide in Israel.
     
  12. micksimon

    micksimon New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(dbermanmd @ Jun 8 2007, 12:41 PM) [snapback]458082[/snapback]</div>
    You don't have to be able to see into the future to have had a very good idea of what was going to happen before we went into Iraq. Knowing what's happened in the past would have told you pretty much what you needed to know. Before the war I asked dozens of people to name as many success stories as they could of a Western country invading an Arab one to "establish" their form of government. Zero responses. Change comes from within. From Gallipoli in WWI to the Soviets in Afghanistan western armies have had very little success in Asia.

    I was steadfastly opposed to the Iraq invasion. In light of what we've done I think it would be an even bigger travesty for us to leave, as is. That said, I agree with you on the majority of predictions you've made for what will happen if we leave. With regards to #9, the majority of funding for Wahhabism has come from Saudi Arabia to the tune of an estimated 80 - 90 billion dollars. You know what they say about being careful of what you ask for.
     
  13. patrickindallas

    patrickindallas Shire rat

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(dbermanmd @ Jun 8 2007, 09:51 AM) [snapback]458005[/snapback]</div>

    A good percentage of the things you list here are likely to happen no matter when we leave.

    Except #2.

    And inre #10: It depends on who you define the 'bad guys' to be.
     
  14. JSH

    JSH Senior Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(ozyran @ Jun 8 2007, 02:46 PM) [snapback]458239[/snapback]</div>
    Why should we care what happens to Israel? I don't get why some people think we are joined at the hip. Israel can take care of themselves.


    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(dbermanmd @ Jun 8 2007, 09:51 AM) [snapback]458005[/snapback]</div>
    I suggest everyone watch the documentary "Letters Home From Vietnam". All the arguments you here now about why we can't leave Iraq are almost word for word the arguments why we couldn't leave Vietnam. Strangely enough, we aren't fighting the Soviets here on our own soil and I doubt if we leave Iraq, the terrorist will follow either. Watch the movie, the parallel is amazing.
     
  15. dbermanmd

    dbermanmd New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(jhinton @ Jun 10 2007, 12:56 AM) [snapback]459020[/snapback]</div>
    We care about israel because they are the free worlds "mine canary".

    You are right, the terrorists will not follow us home - they are already here - WTC I 1993, WTC II 2001, other attemtps including fort dix, jfk, bridge plots, etc etc.

    I usually do not let movie makers determine my opinions.

    btw, ask the brits and the spainards about terrorists too - they are there already too - dont forget the germans and the french -- the people in bali, sudan, darfur -- pretty sure islamoterrorists are there too. oh, yea, somalia and lebanon and the palestinian authority - oops - forgot egypt (they had a few resorts and tourist busses go boom) - anywhere else i can think of.....? that it for a 30 second try. so you are right, they wont follow us here - feel better now?

    btw - we were not fighting the soviets we were fighting their communist allies the vietcong - they had no desire nor did they have the capacity to reach out to touch us - they had no wmd's either (are you in favor of letting iran get the nuke bro?), and they liked living and hated dying - this enemy loves to die for their cause, they believe wmd's are fair play, and they live amongst us already and have been for decades - just waiting.....

    whats your opinion on the movie - dr strangelove? Is finding Nemo instructive too? just joking. have a nice day. be safe.
     
  16. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Why hasnt Bush succeeded in training an Iraqi military to take over their own security ,as promised from day one of the invasion?
    Its becoming obvious that the Republicans have realized that if they actually performed the training of security forces it would only enable a US withdrawal.
    Thus they have no incentive to actually follow through with their promise.Recently it became quietly known that training a security force was no longer even a goal by the administration.
    The possibility of disaster is all too real when we leave,but I can already see the strategy of the Republicans .
    Hinder Iraq from taking over their own security but when disaster occurs , place the blame squarely on the Democrats for wanting to leave after only 4 years.
    Bush lied about training an Iraq security force.
     
  17. jim0266

    jim0266 Junior Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(mojo @ Jun 11 2007, 04:57 PM) [snapback]459711[/snapback]</div>
    There never was a plan to leave. That's why we are building 14 permanent bases there. Along this line read Baghdad year zero - http://www.harpers.org/archive/2004/09/0080197

    We are going to lose 100 soldiers a month with thousands others maimed for life as we waste billions of more dollars, until the political pressure at home becomes too great and our troops are pulled out. In that time tens of thousands of Iraqi's will die. We are in the middle of a civil war as it stands now. Unless we institute a draft (not going to happen) we don't have the troops necessary to stop what's going to happen there, if we are in the country or not.

    We've tried to engage in empire building and it has failed. Another important article - Can We End the American Empire Before It Ends Us? - http://alternet.org/story/51975/?page=1

    We have to live with the guilt of those we killed. That means me, you, GWB, Rummy, Colin Powell, Kerry, Edwards, Clinton, Scooter, Cheney, Judith Miller, Thomas Friedman... We are all responsible.