Featured Electric Cars have a long way to go to make a dent in the Oil Consumption of Cars/Trucks

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by mozdzen, Oct 27, 2015.

  1. mozdzen

    mozdzen Active Member

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  2. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    Which is why mass adoption of hybrids are necessary.

    Achieving all domestic fuel (regardless of fossil, renewables or nuclear) while reducing emission should be the next goal.

    We'll need BEVs, PHEVs, FCVs and plain HEVs together to achieve it. Bickering which is better is going to work against that goal.
     
    #2 usbseawolf2000, Oct 27, 2015
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2015
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  3. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    Looks like EV is a drop in the bucket. Yet some still say that by 2030 all vehicles will be EV? Hard to see that when you look at that chart.
     
  4. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Look at a list of the over half dozen countries making the most of high speed rail . . . .
    List of high-speed railway lines - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    Suggest that kind of tech in the U.S. population and you'd think someone just suggested giving up your 1st borrn
    .
     
  5. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    We certainly need a combination of BEVs, PHEVs, hybrids and possibly FCVs.
    However, hybrids seem to have hit a ceiling at 3% market share. Plugin vehicles will surpass that.

    We need more, and more reliable rail. Both for cargo and passengers.

    Looking at the first 3 years of ev sales and making any conclusions would be as foolish as looking at the first 3 years of hybrid sales and proclaiming their future based solely on that.
     
  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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    In about 10 days, we'll have Jeff Cobb's hybrid dashboard report and can look at the trends over the past four months. Of course there will be a dip in diesel sales (dip as in "falling off a cliff".) Also, the pending 2016 model change and low gas prices will suppress Prius hatchback sales.

    There is a huge inventory of inefficient vehicles that won't be going away over night. But we are still learning how to make better, more efficient cars. Yet I'm amused that our 2003 Prius, 12 years old, still gets twice the mileage of the USA fleet. Then there are those 420,000 NOx emitting diesels rolling around and some still being paid off.

    Bob Wilson
     
  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    when we run out of fossil fuel, the needle will peg.;)
     
  8. cycledrum

    cycledrum PSOCSOASP

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    Not going to happen (mass adoption of hybrids) the way hybrids are now. ....
    'Show of hands .... who wants to pay more for a sedan with big battery in trunk and essentially no pass through (that's code for greatly reduced cargo capability) ? .....

    They (Toyota) need to figure out how to package battery much better in sedans with trunk, as if it wasn't even in the car. Same is true for Hyundai, Ford, Honda, Kia,
    -------------------------

    And Bisco, is there any credible info that fossil fuels will run out within xx years? Or is the notion that fossil fuels will run out in, say, 35 years just eco FUD?
    I don't know and don't have time to 'research' it.

    That said, this Prius will continue to be the best selling alt vehicle by 3x or more. Yet there are tons of people that won't remotely consider it.
    Rav4 hybrid will be a nice alternative. When the heck does that thing go on sale???
     
    #8 cycledrum, Oct 27, 2015
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2015
  9. fotomoto

    fotomoto Senior Member

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    The headline could replace "Electric" with "Hybrids" and still be factually correct. :rolleyes:

    It's been said many times here and elsewhere: we need to radically boost the MPG of trucks and suv's to make a major dent in oil consumption. Right now we are doing the equivalent of trying to lose weight by having a diet coke with our super-sized Double Quarter Pounder meal.
     
  10. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    not in xx years, that would be impossible to predict. no one knows how much is left, and the higher the price goes, the more is available to procure. i'm just saying that is the way it's going to go. it's human nature. we'd rather contaminate people's drinking water through fracking, than give up our fossil fuels, that's the power of majority rule. not in our lifetimes, for sure.
     
  11. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    No not even 2020 will move the needle. There are 200 M light vehicles in the US, and less than 4 Million hydrids and plug-ins. That means less than 2%, and even with hybrids selling in this country since 2000, they haven't reduced oil consumption even 1%.

    I'd like to see a dent by 2030 in percentage of plug-ins. We know fuel cell vehices if they contribute won't be making a dent until at least 2040 in the US. 2020, even if we sold 1 M plug-ins a year which is 7x 2015s likely value, would still have less than 3% plug-in cars on the road.
     
  12. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The other One Percenter.....

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    Well begun is half done......
     
  13. mozdzen

    mozdzen Active Member

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    I don't believe we will run out of fossil fuel before the switch - just like (thankfully) we didn't run out of whales before we gave that up as a major fuel supply.


    Merged.


    Since that chart was "Percentages" hybrids without a plug will have an even smaller effect on that chart, I think. It would lower the amount of gasoline used by cars, making the usage of electricity a higher percentage, but I think cars traveling on battery miles would have a larger impact as the number of electric miles traveled has to start becoming significant. I'm guessing that the Leaf, Volt, and Model S are the largest contributors today.
     
    #13 mozdzen, Oct 27, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 28, 2015
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  14. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    You can't rule out the possibility that plugin incentive is stalling the hybrids.

    Gen4 Prius has shown that the battery pack can be under the rear seats. 12v back under the hood. You won't be able to distinguish between the two.

    Gen5 with SiC inverter should be able to get rid of the inverter coolant since the operating temp of both ICE and inverter could be the same.

    I do see mass adoption with Gen4 HSD and beyond. A few thousand incentive will also ignite it. That's what Japan did and I believe hybrids represents the majority, even after the incentives have stopped.

    In the US, the hybrid incentives stopped prematurely, interrupted by the plugin incentive. Now, adoption of both seem to have stalled. Just my observation.
     
  15. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    2013 mostly pre-dated the Plug-In era so we would need to see more updated data.
    Would be interesting to see California numbers.
     
  16. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    When I look at the costs California is claiming and compare it to the benefits versus flying, I get a headache on why the fed government is helping this. It could just be mismanagement. OK, really it is mismanagement, and lawsuits. 2029, with only the part between LA and san Jose being high speed.

    Seems high speed rail (hsr) would be most effective on the east coast, but of course there are no plans. I expect a privately funded high speed rail going from houston to dallas before we see public funded in california
    Houston-Dallas high-speed rail idea barrels on, but obstacles remain - Houston Chronicle

    Then again this is a rounding error compared to the 200 million light vehicles on the road.

    The big reduction in oil was not the prius or hybrids, which make up less than 2% of light vehicles. It has been efficiency in the rest of the fleet and biofuels. I hope by 2030 plug-ins will be part of that dent, but the next couple of years won't move the needle, we won't even be at 1 M plug-ins in 2017 (0.5% of the US fleet).
     
  17. PLSPUSH

    PLSPUSH Active Member

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    my prius and leaf are making a "dent in oil consumption" at my home
     
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  18. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Thank you:)

    Now we just need to get more people doing what you do.
     
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  19. mozdzen

    mozdzen Active Member

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    OK - 3 more days. Will TMC actually give us hard numbers at the show or just more pomp?
     
  20. cycledrum

    cycledrum PSOCSOASP

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    Prius (liftback) not a compelling enough package (to date) to crack top 10 US sales, and Leaf is much less so. What is it, 70 miles freeway range on Leaf? That's a 2nd car in household.

    But, this new Prius (2016), I think, will bring in new buyers to replace the ones moving on to BEV and PHEVs. New Prius looks sharp, will drive better and it has the amenities most are used to: How many normal car buyers expect to see an under cargo floor tray, or a 2nd glove box? 2nd and 3rd gen owners are just a bit spoiled with those things.

    I just hope 2016 not more wheezy on power to weight ratio. Current Prius is livable overall, but when you need to get on it and scoot, it can fall flat, so a little more oomph would be good.
     
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