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End of Oil interview on local Seattle NPR station

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by Bob Allen, Jun 4, 2004.

  1. Bob Allen

    Bob Allen Captainbaba

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    Prius fans:
    KUOW, our local NPR station in Seattle aired an interview with a guy who's written a book, "The End Of Oil". He was the most articulate person I've heard in a very long time talk about energy use and sources. Some tidbits, which many of you probably know already:
    1. Hydrogen is a huge problem area and not likely to come on line anytime soon. Biggest problem is producing it without using more energy than you would liberate. Issue is that it keeps the Big Three, Big Petroleum and the Government from dealing with the problems NOW. Fuel cells are possible but what to power them with?
    2. Oil production has peaked. OPEC knows it, the US knows it, and world politics are only going to get crazier as we, Europe, Japan, China and India compete for diminishing supplies.
    3. Bio diesel is a wonderful grass roots partial solution, but creates problems if you scale it up to try to produce enough to run an economy with. Do we want to use agriculture to grow fuel instead of food? There are some crops that can be used to make bio diesel that can also be used as part of the crop rotation cycle practiced by farmers to keep their fields fertile. Big pluses are: no net increase (reduction, actually) in greenhouse gases and easy participation by Joe Consumer who wants to do something positive and feels trapped by the present system.
    4. Hybrids represent the immediate best solution and can be made even more efficient by running on diesel engines powered by bio fuels. Plug in hybrids that combine the best of Prii type hybrids with the added advantage of being able to run on pure battery power for daily commutes.
    There is a big chat about this on this chat line.
    5. Eventually, we will have to reconsider nuclear power. In 50 years, at present growth rates, we will need to generate four times the energy we use now, AND with a quarter of the greenhouse gases unless we want to fry ourselves. Virtually all forms of energy production that work on any large scale, involve greenhouse gas production.
    6. Wind, solar, tidal, offer some relief but suffer from lack of "concentrated energy potential", i.e. it would take a hundred square miles of wind generators to equal a large oil or coal fired power plant. Solar depends on, obviously, daylight, and also is not energy dense per unit of area measurement. It would take a solar field the size of Arizona to provide the energy needs of this country. Doubtful that Arizona would agree to being so converted.
    7. Europe is better off than we are because we have benighted, short sighted government in bed with oil and energy companies, while Europe has been progressing into alternative energy much faster than we.
    8. Back to cars: Japan is years ahead of us. GM poo-pooed the hybnd idea ten years ago when it first surfaced, but the Japanese made a huge (and, as it turns out, right on) committment to hybrid technology early in the game and now is the leader of the pack. The most efficient use of an internal combustion engine is when it's running at a constant RPM, as in a generator. The most efficient engine/motor (actually) is electric. This is why diesel locomotives are so efficient: the diesel provides the electricity and the electric motor does the heavy lifting. The Prius simply puts that idea into a passenger car. A diesel Prius would be a thing of beauty.
    9. Conclusion (my own): we change the energy face of this country one car, one driver at a time. As gas prices climb, the hybrid becomes more attractive and GM is recognizing this. More attractive means more hybrids and lower production costs. The Prius is almost a "one off" model given that there are fewer than 200,000 in the world. The economies of scale will change this.
    We will continue to depend on oil for our lifetimes, but the picture is changing; from the bottom up.
    Bob
     
  2. Sun__Tzu

    Sun__Tzu New Member

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    I think one of the huge advantages of wind/solar is that they don't need to be highly concentrated. Single family homes can easily install and maintain their own solar panels right now. If you take "the size of Arizona" and divide it into several million pieces distributed over several million homes, it becomes much more reasonable. You can't have a "single family coal/oil-burning power plant" in your backyard, but you clearly can have a solar system on your roof. Its a clear advantage of the system, and should be exploited to its fullest.

    As for needing sunlight, that's what batteries are for. Kinetic energy batteries would cut down on the pollution/waste of lead-acid batteries. And all of this technology is readily available today.
     
  3. Wolfman

    Wolfman New Member

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    This topic is more relevent in the Environmental forum.


    I'll second the solar issue. Residences aside. I wonder how much commercial rooftop space there is nationwide? My own wild guess would be that there is more area nationwide in commercial rooftop space than the state of Arizona. By this, I mean all of the flat roofs on malls, high rises, strip malls, factories, etc.

    Solar panels limitations are not really limitations. They make power when it's needed most - the daytime. Factories are all online producing goods, and they are one of the larger consumers of daytime power. The panels do well to provide the additional capacity during these times. When it gets dark, and they are no longer able to produce power, well, the demand is dropping to nighttime levels anyway.
     
  4. DonDNH

    DonDNH Senior Member

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    But that 100 SqMi isn't dedicated to the wind mills. Farming and other uses can easily coexist in the spaces between the mills.


    This poses the same problem he cites for Hydrogen. Producing electricity, transmission, charging, and dis-charging the battery loses efficiency at each step. What both do well is to concentrate the available energy relatively safely and make it mobile where energy infrastructures are unavailable.
     
  5. skruse

    skruse Senior Member

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    It is real, just pick it up

    A grand daughter and grandfather are walking along the street. The granddaughter says, "Oh look grandfather, a $20 bill!" The grandfather, looks then replies, "Don't be rediculous, if the $20 bill were real someone would have picked it up by now!"

    The $20 bill is real. PV panels on the roof of every residence, business, school and church - tied to the grid, provides "distributed generation" - more cost effective than highly concentrated megagenerating plants. A conservative (least cost, end use) person thinks and acts long term. A liberal (least cost, first use) person thinks and acts short term.

    PV panels on every roof is long-term thinking and integrates everyone vs. an isolated megaplant. Short-term thinkers can watch their electric meters run backwards. Long-term thinks know that it is always cheaper to hold onto what you already have (sunlight) rather than constantly "going to get more someplace else."
     
  6. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    Re: It is real, just pick it up

    Then why are conservatives the fiercest opponents of alternative energy?

    The "End of Oil" guy seems to think that we are better off producing all our energy centrally and then distributing it over an expensive (and vulnerable) grid. I agree with all the posters above who point out the tremendous advantage of distributed energy production and the potential for integrating it with current uses (rooftop solar panels, wind farms, etc.)

    As an example, one of those big five-megawatt wind turbines at each section corner would be a very small obstruction to agriculture, for which the farmers could be easily compensated, and would take very little land out of production.
     
  7. Wolfman

    Wolfman New Member

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    Re: It is real, just pick it up

    The reality is, they are not conservative, or liberal. The current government parties are in it for themselves, and NOT for the public in which they are supposed to be serving.

    Bush is a big corportaion president. He seeks to support them, so thay'll scratch his back. They get richer, he gets richer. The rest of us get the trickle down effects. Kerry is a liberal elitest who thinks he has all the answers, yet sees himself "above the masses." He has his constintuents that he will play the exact same game with that Bush is now, despite his "promises" to eliminate special interests. The only difference is, he will reach into whomever's wallet he sees fit to fund his desired results. The only special interests he's interested in elimiating, are those that aren't greasing his own palms.

    The way to make a difference is to somehow get the othe 75% of the voting capable pulbic back into the polls, and get the republicrats booted OUT of office at EVERY level.
     
  8. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    Re: It is real, just pick it up

    Agreed.

    But the difficulty is that we don't elect people by majority. We elect by plurality. So we don't get rid of the "Republicrats" unless we can get a plurality of the voters to back a single candidate; and not only for president, but in a majority of states and congressional districts.

    If those 75% voted, each for his or her preferred candidate, the big two parties would still control the gummint. And the people who oppose the two big parties are spread across the political spectrum, not likely to unite behind a single candidate.
     
  9. Wolfman

    Wolfman New Member

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    Possibly. Hoever, many people who don't vote, don't because they don't like either party. Getting these people back in, and voting outside of party lines, would shake things up. Even if the election was as razor thin as the 2000 election was with an out of party lines candidate, the incumbents would get a wake up call.
     
  10. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    Good point.

    I've been voting for "protest" candidates ever since I was old enough to vote. (Occasionally I vote for a mainstream candidate for a local election.)

    Now we just have to get the rest of those non-voters to follow our example.
     
  11. LewLasher

    LewLasher Member

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    Yeah, and that 2000 election sure taught Bush a lesson!
     
  12. Wolfman

    Wolfman New Member

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    I hate to get this old tired argument going again, but it was not Bush who started trying to rewrite Florida law regarding recounts, and what was supposed to be considered a properly marked ballot. Laws exist for a reaon, and one of them is not to rewrite them as one sees fit when trying to circumvent the electorial process.
     
  13. LewLasher

    LewLasher Member

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    I, too, hate to get an old tired argument going, especially one that has nothing to do with the conversation already in progress. No one was talking about the controversy over the Florida recount, so there was certainly no reason for you to introduce that into the conversation.

    My point was that there is no evidence whatever that Bush (or anyone else, other than Ralph Nader himself) got any kind of "wake-up call" from the third-party candidacy of Ralph Nader in the 2000 election.
     
  14. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    The issue in Florida was not the counting of the ballots. It was that 5,000 black voters were illegally turned away from the polls after the Secretary of State of Florida, who was at the same time Bush's campaign manager in the state (a serious conflict of interest!), and was appointed by Bush's brother, hired a private firm to compile a bogus list of black alleged ex-felons.

    The issue is also the electoral college system itself, which was designed specifically to put some distance between the democratic process and the selection of the president.

    And the issue is that Gore himself, and the Democratic party, confined themselves to the non-issue of ballots and recounts, and refused to raise the issue of outright fraud, probably because they didn't want to set a precedent, because both parties have a long and ignoble history of electoral fraud, and raising the issue now would raise doubts about the system itself.
     
  15. jimvt

    jimvt New Member

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    I am currently reading "Sleeping with the Devil: How Washington Sold Our Soul for Saudi Crude" by ex CIA Robert Baer.

    This book is quite a wake up on how the revolving door works for the beltway and how the house of Sa'ud affects the politics here in the US.

    What I find disturbing is that the Saudi's are holding over 1 trillion dollars in US treasury plus 1 trillion in the US stock market. Combined with their control of the crude oil market: they have the USA right by the balls